Do We Need/Have a Reference Value Chain Model of IP Based-Networks Development ?

1. Do We Need/Have a Reference Value Chain Model of IP Based-Networks Development? WORKSHOP ON SURVEY & ASSESSMENT FOR INTERNET TRAFFIC INFRASTRUCTURE Movenpick Tower & Suite Hotel, Doha, Qatar, 6 November 2012 Dr. Ahmed ElHefnawy Senior Advisor for Arab States – ITU Views presented here is not yet officially approved by ITU & is still under investigation/elaboration.

2. WHY IP-Based Infrastructure & Services? • Most of the Investments will be directed in the next 10 years to IP-Based Infrastructure & Services. • The Digital Divide is largest in this. • Special stress to Broadband; the current decade is the Broadband Decade compares to the last one was the Mobile Decade. • Different Scope & Measures for meaningful Analysis & Planning. • Different Business Models.

3. IP is a Different World .. As we move from Minutes to Bytes • Holistic View: • From Registration …Content • From Devices Acquisition …Participation • From National …Regional ... International • From Cost+ ….. Value+ Game Changer VOICE >>> DATA, via VOIP & OTT

4. Traditional vs. Needed Model • Traditional Models (OSI) are built on Vertical Layers • Need to have Horizontal Layers Interlinked for Value Management, Streamlining the Process .. End to End..

5. Are Critical Measurements Available? • Yes, there are many measurements available, but not integrated and sometimes inconsistent. • A Conceptual Model is Needed.

6. Factors Affecting The Development • Economic Environment …. • Regulatory Setting …. • Market (Users ) Culture …. These Factors Determine the Pace and Size of Development of Each and Every Component of the Model

7. Demand Supply Infrastructure Content & Media Environmental Impacts Indirect Factors, Policy & Regulation, etc.

8. Registration of Subjects Traditionally, you have a phone number, then phone and mobile numbers, then came the Internet and users start to interact and get recognized by one or more of the following: • Web Site, • Email, • Blog, • Facebook / LinkedIn / Google Plus / My Space • Twitter • YouTube • Flickr/Instagram/…. • BBM/ WhatsApp /… • Skype / Viber / Tango … • PayPal • Open ID • IP (static, dynamic, ) • …. • E-Num !!

9. Proposed Ecosystem Conceptual Model (1/2) Devices (HW & SW Suppliers) Content (Users/ Producers) Register Sites Receive Transmit Connect Users Connectivity (ISPs, Cables, IXPs, Spectrum, Exchanges Sub. Sites (Registrars) Users/ Producers Hosts Data Centers (Hosting) Producers

10. Proposed Ecosystem Conceptual Model (2/2) Economy ICT Operational System Policy & Regulation Geography Human Resources

11. Sources for Main Parameters • IP per Country: • http://www.whois.sc/internet-statistics/country-ip-counts/ , • Akamai: http://www.akamai.com/stateoftheinternet/ • Connectivity: • Akamai: http://www.akamai.com/stateoftheinternet/ • Netindex.com: http://netindex.com/upload/allcountries/, http://netindex.com/download/allcountries/ • Domains : • http://www.webhosting.info/domains/country_stats/ • IXPs: • https://prefix.pch.net/applications/ixpdir/index.php?sort=country&order=asc • https://prefix.pch.net/applications/ixpdir/summary/growth • Root Servers: • https://prefix.pch.net/applications/ixpdir/summary/root-servers/ • http://root-servers.org/ • Registrars: • GTLD: http://www.webhosting.info/registrars/ • Registries: • GTLD: http://www.webhosting.info/registries/country_stats • Traffic/Services (not at level of Arab Countries): • http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns1186/vnisa_graphing_tool.html • http://www.cisco.com/web/solutions/sp/vni/vni_mobile_forecast_highlights/index.html

12. Key Directions (Not frequently discussed) (1/2) • Monthly Traffic will grow from 4 GB/Month (2011) to 15 GB/Month (2016)… 375% in 5 years • By 2016, Devices Connected will be three times the population compared to almost population size in 2011. ---------- المصدر: http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-481360_ns827_Networking_Solutions_White_Paper.html

13. Key Directions (Not frequently discussed) (2/2) • Video represents almost 86% of Traffic • Traffic in Middle East & Africa will grow at the highest in the world at an annual percentage of 57% compared to a global average of 29% from 2011 to 2016.

14. Benchmarking Arab Region • The Arab region which has 5.13% of world population, 3.8% of world GDP, 4.53% of world literates, 9.63% of world land, 4.22% of world Internet Users , 5.8% of world mobile subscribers, 2.99% of world fixed lines, 1.41 % of Internet International Connectivity, 0.88 % of world IP addresses, 0.8% of articles in Wikipedia, 0.2% of world hosts, 0.16% of world domains, and 0.0036% of world IXP Traffic from 0.34% of world IXP participants .

15. The Resulting Performance (1/2) • The effect of the divide in the region compared to the global. The amount of data transmitted per capita is about 1 GB/Month compared to a global average of 14.5 GB/Month with an average speed of 1.1 Mbps compared to global average speed of 10.44 Mbps , and the price of delivery per 1 Mbps/Month is 1000% for ADSL and 2215% for Leased lines compared to OECD. High Cost Low Usage

16. The Resulting Performance (2/2) • Download Speed regionally is 30% of Global Average (netindex.com) • Cost of Connectivity for Mbps for fixed lines Regionally is 39 times cost in OECD and 16 times cost globally. • Amount of Monthly Data Usage (GB) is 7 % global average (Est.) • متوسط سرعة التحميل اقليميا حوالى 30% من المتوسط العالمى. • تكلفة الاتصال للميجا بيت/ث للخطوط الثابتة بالمنطقة العربية حوالى 39 ضعف التكلفة لدول منظمة التعاون الاقتصادى و16 ضعف المتوسط العالمى. • حجم الاستخدام البيانات (جيجا بايت شهريا) للمستخدم بالمنطقة العربية حوالى 7% المعدل العالمى.

17. Factors Affecting Performance (1/2) • Supply Side • High Cost • Limited Content. … Content is the King. • Low Speed • Demand Side • A huge Market of 365 Millions speaking same language and have an economy of over $ 3 Trillions.

18. Investment & Revenue • How much of the Revenue directed to Investment ? • Where is it generated at National/ Regional / International? ; How it is to be distributed fromContent, Service and Infrastructure Providers? Revenue Investment

19. How can we Solve? Revenues are gradually moving to International Content Providers, associated with the decreasing revenue from Voice (Fixed/Mobile) and SMS as a result of VOIP & OTT, Companies in the region will be exposed to a huge challenge especially with the increasing need to the investment needed for high traffic. • At least, Revenue Sharing Agreement is Needed between Infrastructure Provider, Service Providers & Content Providers. • Adopting a regional digital agenda similar to EU. http://ec.europa.eu/information_society/digital-agenda/index_en.htm

20. Model Usage • Planning to streamline Investment to remove bottlenecks • Used for Revenue Sharing by Value Added in the Chain

21. Thanks for Listening

22. ahmed.elhefawy@itu.int

23. Q & A

24. Main Components of ICT Infrastructure • International Links • Internet Exchange Points • Data Centers • Backbone • IP Exchanges • Backhaul • Last Mile Balanced Investment is needed in this infrastructure in addition to Policies for regulation to ensure socioeconomic development.

25. Main Components of ICT Services • Digital Content • Marketing • Support Facilities (Payment, Search Engines, Directories, ..) Policies are needed to direct/attract Needed Balanced Investment to ensure socioeconomic development.

26. Changing ICT Industry

27. Vision (Proposed) By Yearxxx, XX % of People & Entities (subjects) will spend an Average of XX USD/year to exchangeXX GB/year/subject in a secure and reliable manner in XX % of time & locations…