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- WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

INTERNATIONAL GAS UNION 3rd WOC 1 Committee Meeting 18th October 2007, National Iranian Gas Company, Tehran, IRAN SG 1.1. 1. - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran. SG 1.1 Main topics. Mature areas Deep offshore Arctic zones Gas monetization technologies.

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- WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

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  1. INTERNATIONAL GAS UNION3rd WOC 1 Committee Meeting18th October 2007, National Iranian Gas Company, Tehran, IRANSG 1.1 1 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  2. SG 1.1 Main topics • Mature areas • Deep offshore • Arctic zones • Gas monetization technologies - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  3. Target : involve the main operators in our work • Why do we need to involve them ? • They have a real experience of their own history in these areas. • They must have a view on the future of these areas. • How will we manage to involve them ? • We need to identify these main operators • We need to prepare the work so that they properly contribute to our work • Preliminary reviews (following slide) • Have a good knowledge of the history (at least the recent history) of these areas • Have reasonable ideas on the challenges met by the operators • Propose a way to get the information from the operators • Get the information - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  4. Preliminary review • History (or recent history) • Recent production profile (since 2000) • Cumulative gas production since 2000 • Growth, plateau or decline? • Main fields. • Recent discovery events • Discovered reserves : comparison with production (replacement or not) • And comparison with past years : more or less discoveries • New exploration ideas. • Recent fields start-ups • Fields whose production began since 2000 • Recent development decisions • Developments decided since 2000 (green or brownfield) - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  5. Operators • Identification of the main operators of the • the main producing fields • the main discoveries • the main start-ups • the main new developments • Involvement of the identified operators • give our view of the main past events • ask them to give their own views • From the industry point of view (past and future performance) • On their own performances (past and future performance) - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  6. Mature areas • Main mature areas • Europe • United Kingdom • Norway • Nederlands • Germany • Central Europe • … • North America • Lower 48 • Conventional GOM • … • South America • Argentina • … - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  7. Deep offshore • Main deep offshore areas (Gas) • Gulf of Mexico • Brazil • Australia • … - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  8. Arctic zones • Main Arctic zones • Russia • Norway • Greenland • Canada • Alaska - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  9. Gas monetization technologies • LNG (?) • GTL • DME • Methanol/Petrochemicals • Gas to Wire - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  10. Mature areas - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  11. Mature areas UK - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  12. Mature areas : United Kingdom • 2002 2007 production profiles • Cumulative production since 2002 : 17 TCF • Production peak in 2002 • Production decline will accelerate • Main producing fields in 2007 are : Alwyn (Total), Morecambe South (Centrica), Elgin Franklin (Total), Britannia (Chevron ConocoPhillips), Brae (Marathon), Bruce (BP), Brent (BP), others produce less than 250 Mscfpd… • Main production growth since 2002 : Goldeneye (Shell), Saturn Area (ConocoPhillips), Atlantic & Cromarty (BG Amerada Hess), Rhum (BP), Rivers (ConocoPhillips), Carrack (Shell), others increased less than 100 Mscfpd… • Main production decline since 2002 : Brent (BP), Bruce (BP), Morecambe South (Centrica), Morecambe North (Centrica), Armada (BG), Brae (Marathon), others decreased less than 150 Mscfpd… - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  13. Mature areas : United Kingdom • 2007 2012 production trends • Main production growth from 2007 to 2012 : Harding (BP), Sean (Shell), Laggan (Total), Devenick (BP), Leman (Shell), others will increase less than 100 Mscfpd • Main production decline from 2007 to 2012 : Morecambe South (Centrica), Brae (Marathon), Britannia (Chevron ConocoPhillips), Brent (BP), Alwyn (Total), Bruce (BP), Elgin Franklin (Total), Atlantic & Cromarty (BG Amerada Hess), Goldeneye (Shell), Saturn Area (ConocoPhillips), Armada Area (BG), Easington Catchment Area (BG), others will decrease less than 100 Mscfpd. - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  14. Mature areas : United Kingdom • Main discoveries : • Cumulative discovered reserves since 2000 : 1 TCF • Only one discovery above 500 Bcf : Jura (Total) • Main production start-ups • Since 2002 : Carrack (Shell), Rhum (BP), Saturn Area (ConocoPhillips), Rivers (ConocoPhillips), Goldeneye (Shell), Rhum (BP)…other start ups were on fields with less than 200 Bcf. • After 2007 : Harding (BP), Brodgar/Callanish (ConocoPhillips), Kessog and Devenick (BP), Jura and Laggan (Total)…other start-ups will be on fields with less than 200 Bcf. - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  15. UK Main operators • Shell • No significant gas discoveries since 2002 • Production start-ups before 2007: Goldeneye, Shearwater, Carrack • Significant production increases before 2007 : Shearwater • Significant production increases before 2012 : Sean, Leman • Significant decline before 2012 : Goldeneye • BP • No significant gas discoveries since 2002 • Significant declines since 2002 and after 2007 : Brent, Bruce • Production start-up before 2007 : Rhum • Production start-ups after 2007 : Harding, Kessog and Devenick - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  16. UK Main operators • Total • Discoveries before 2007 : Jura • Significant production in 2007 and significant decline before 2012 : Alwyn, Elgin-Franklin • Production start-ups after 2007 : Jura and Laggan • ConocoPhillips • No significant gas discoveries since 2002 • Significant production in 2007 and decline before 2012 : Britannia (with Chevron) • Production start-up before 2007 : Saturn area, Rivers • Production start-up after 2007 : Brodgar/Callanish • Significant decline after 2007 : Saturn area, Britannia, - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  17. UK Main operators • BG • No significant gas discoveries since 2002 • Significant decline before 2007 : Armada area, • Significant decline after 2007 : Atlantic & Cromarty, Easington Catchment • Production start-ups before 2007 : Atlantic & Cromarty • Centrica • No significant gas discoveries since 2002 • Significant decline after 2002 : Morecambe South, Morecambe North, - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  18. UK : questions to all the selected operatorsExploration results • Would you agree with this : • Since 2002 the industry has not been able to replace its production 1 TCF discovered for 17 TCF produced. Jura is the largest discovery • What are the reasons for that performance? • Will this trend go on or, if not, at which conditions will gas reserve replacement get closer to 100%? • Would you agree with this : • Between 2007 and 2012 gas production will decrease. - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  19. UK : questions to all the selected operatorsStart-ups • Would you agree with this : • Less than 4 Tcf of reserves have been put in production since end 2002 : Carrack (Shell), Rhum (BP), Saturn Area (ConocoPhillips), Rivers (ConocoPhillips), Goldeneye (Shell), Rhum (BP)… • After 2007 : Brodgar/Callanish (ConocoPhillips), Kessog and Devenick (BP), Jura and Laggan (Total)… • Until 2012, do you see other start-ups than the ones listed above ? - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  20. UK : questions to all the selected operatorsProduction profiles • Your comments on the following points : • From 2007 to 2012, the fields whose production growth will be the most significant are : • Harding (BP), Sean (Shell), Laggan (Total), Devenick (BP), Leman (Shell). • From 2007 to 2012, the fields whose production decline will be the most significant are : • Morecambe South (Centrica), Brae (Marathon), Britannia (Chevron ConocoPhillips), Brent (BP), Alwyn (Total), Bruce (BP), Elgin Franklin (Total), Atlantic & Cromarty (BG Amerada Hess), Goldeneye (Shell), Saturn Area (ConocoPhillips), Armada Area (BG), Easington Catchment Area (BG). - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  21. UK : Questions to Shell • Shell did not make any significant discovery since 2002. • Any reason for that? Is it due to a reduction of budget, or to exploration risks or what else • Does Shell anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years. • Shell started gas production from 2 fields : Goldeneye, Carrack • Any comment on these developments : what were the key success factors for these developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …? • Production from Sean and Leman will increase : • Any comment on these increases (difficulties, key success factors, innovations). • Production from Goldeneye will decline. • Any way to slow down the decline? - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  22. UK : Questions to BP • BP did not make any significant discovery since 2002. • Any reason for that? Is it due to a reduction of budget, or to exploration risks or what else • Does BP anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years. • BP started gas production from 1 field : Rhum. • Any comment on these developments : what were the key success factors for these developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …? • BP will start gas production from 2 fields : Kessog, Devenick and Harding • Any comment on these start-ups (difficulties, key success factors, innovations). • Production from Brent and Bruce will go on declining. • Any way to slow down the decline? - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  23. UK : Questions to TOTAL • Since 2002, TOTAL discovered Jura. • Any comment on this result? • Does TOTAL anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years. • TOTAL did not start any new gas field since 2002. • TOTAL will start gas production from 2 fields : Jura and Laggan • Any comment on these developments : what were the key success factors for these developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …? • Production from Alwyn and Elgin-Franklin will begin its decline. • Is that right? Any way to slow down the decline? - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  24. UK : Questions to ConocoPhillips • ConocoPhillips did not make any significant discovery since 2002. • Any reason for that? Is it due to a reduction of budget, or to exploration risks or what else • Does ConocoPhillips anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years. • ConocoPhillips started gas production from 2 fields : Saturn area and Rivers • Any comment on these developments : what were the key success factors for these developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …? • ConocoPhillips will start gas production from 1 field : Brodgar Callanish • Any comment on these start-ups (difficulties, key success factors, innovations). • Production from Britannia and Saturn area will begin its decline. • Is that right? Any way to slow down the decline? - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  25. UK : Questions to BG • BG did not make any significant discovery since 2002. • Any reason for that? Is it due to a reduction of budget, or to exploration risks or what else • Does BG anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years. • BG started gas production from 1 field : Atlantic & Cromarty Any • comment on this development : what were the key success factors for these developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …? • Production from Armada area have begun to decline and productions from Atlantic & Cromarty, Easington Catchment will begin their declines. • Is that right? Any way to slow down the decline? - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  26. UK : Questions to Centrica • Centrica did not make any significant discovery since 2002. • Any reason for that? Is it due to a reduction of budget, or to exploration risks or what else • Does Centrica anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years. • Production from Morecambe South, Morecambe North will go on declining • Is that right? Any way to slow down the decline? - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  27. Mature areas Norway - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  28. Mature Areas Argentina, Germany, Netherlands, others - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  29. Deep offshore - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  30. Deep offshore GOM - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  31. Deep offshore Brazil, Australia… - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  32. Arctic zones - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  33. Arctic zones Russia - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  34. Arctic zones Canada - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  35. Arctic zones Norway - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  36. Arctic zones Greenland… - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  37. Gas monetization - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  38. Gas monetization Overall trends - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  39. LNG • Status • Changes since last WGC • Status of projects which were identified in 2006 • Particular focus on projects which were not launched at that time but were thought to be launched soon. • What are the main reasons for projects status in 2008 or 2009 being different from what was anticipated in 2006? • Costs, competition, markets, politics… • New projects (not identified in 2006) • How did they arise? - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  40. GTL • Status • Changes since last WGC • Status of projects which were identified in 2006 • Particular focus on projects which were not launched at that time but were thought to be launched soon. • What are the main reasons for projects status in 2008 or 2009 being different from what was anticipated in 2006? • Costs, competition, markets, politics… • New projects (not identified in 2006) • How did they arise? • Suggestion : costs, risks, sometimes DME competition? - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  41. DME • Status • Changes since last WGC • Status of projects which were identified in 2006 • Particular focus on projects which were not launched at that time but were thought to be launched soon. • What are the main reasons for projects status in 2008 or 2009 being different from what was anticipated in 2006? • Costs, competition, markets, politics… • New projects (not identified in 2006) • How did they arise? • Suggestion : look at China - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  42. Methanol • Status • Changes since last WGC • Status of projects which were identified in 2006 • Particular focus on projects which were not launched at that time but were thought to be launched soon. • What are the main reasons for projects status in 2008 or 2009 being different from what was anticipated in 2006? • Costs, competition, markets, politics… • New projects (not identified in 2006) • How did they arise? • Suggestion : look at China - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  43. Gas to Wire • Status • Changes since last WGC • Status of projects which were identified in 2006 • Particular focus on projects which were not launched at that time but were thought to be launched soon. • What are the main reasons for projects status in 2008 or 2009 being different from what was anticipated in 2006? • Costs, competition, markets, politics… • New projects (not identified in 2006) • How did they arise? - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  44. The events which impacted Gas Monetization since 2006 • From LNG to Gas to Wire • Capital costs • Effects on risk management and contracting • Competition • Marketing • Politics - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  45. Mature areas Norway - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  46. Norway • 2002 2007 production profiles • Cumulative production since 2002 : 15 TCF • Production will increase significantly after 2007 • Main producing fields in 2007 are : Troll (Statoil), Asgard (Statoil), Sleipner Vest and Ost (Statoil), Kristin (Statoil), Gullfaks satellites (Statoil), Ormen Lange (Norsk Hydro), Ekofisk (ConocoPhillips), Oseberg (Norsk Hydro), Snohvit (Statoil), others produce less than 200 Mscfpd. • These fields are also the ones whose production increased the most between 2002 and 2007. • Main production declines since 2002 : Huldra (Statoil), Sleipner Vest (Statoil) … others decreased less than 100 Mscfpd… - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  47. Norway • 2007 2012 production trends • Main production growth from 2007 to 2012 : Ormen Lange (Norsk Hydro), Troll (Statoil), Snohvit (Statoil), Kvitebjorn (Statoil), Oseberg (Norsk Hydro), Fram (Norsk Hydro), others will decrease by less than 100 Mscfpd • Main production declines : Sleipner Vest (Statoil), Sleipner Ost (Statoil), Gullfaks satellites (Statoil), Tune (Norsk Hydro), Kristin (Statoil), Huldra (Statoil), Skirne (Total), others will decrease by less than 100 Mscfpd - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  48. Norway • Main discoveries • No significant discoveries has occurred since 2002 • Main production start-ups • Since 2002 : Mikkel (Statoil), Kvitebjorn (Statoil), Kristin (Statoil), Snohvit (Statoil), Ormen Lange (Norsk Hydro), Oseberg Sor (Norsk Hydro), Fram (Norsk Hydro), • After 2007 : Tyrihans (Statoil), Gjoa (Statoil), Vega and Vega Sur (Norsk Hydro), Skarv (BP), Valemon (Statoil), Hild (Total) - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  49. Norway : main operators • Statoil • No discovery • Main producing fields : Troll , Asgard, Sleipner Vest and Ost, Kristin, Gullfaks satellites, Snohvit, • Main production growth after 2007 : Troll, Snohvit, Kvitebjorn, • Main production declines after 2007 : Sleipner Vest, Sleipner Ost, Gullfaks satellites, Kristin, Huldra, • Production start-ups before 2007 : Mikkel, Kvitebjorn, Kristin, Snohvit, • Production start-ups after 2007 : Tyrihans, Gjoa, Valemon - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

  50. Norway : main operators • Norsk Hydro • No discovery • Main producing fields : Ormen Lange, Oseberg • Main production growth after 2007 : Ormen Lange • Main production declines after 2007 : Tune • Production start-ups before 2007 : Ormen Lange, Oseberg Sor, Fram • Production start-ups after 2007 : Vega and Vega Sur - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

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