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Summary of 2008 SNA implementation plans

Summary of 2008 SNA implementation plans

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Summary of 2008 SNA implementation plans

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  1. Agenda item 2 Summary of 2008 SNA implementation plans UNECE Group of Experts on National Accounts Geneva, 6-9 May 2014

  2. Overview • 2008 SNA implementation tables • Stage 1 – review of strategic documents • Stage 2 – review of supporting work • Stage 3 – development of national accounts

  3. 2008 SNA implementation tables • UNECE tables for formulation of national plans • Based on 3 stages and milestones for the 2008 SNA change over, by ISWGNA • Structure refined during the Workshop in Kiev 2011 • Detailed actions points added based on country discussions • Help identify problems and priorities • First survey in 2012: 19 countries • Regional recommendations by UNECE • Second survey in 2014: 18 countries updated the tables May 2014

  4. 2008 SNA implementation tables May 2014

  5. STAGE 1 – Institutional agreements • Progress made: • Interagency working groups (7 countries) • Memorandums of Understanding / other agreements (7) • Institutional arrangements ongoing in the rest (meetings, workshops) • NSO coordinator for administrative data exchange • Issues: Distribution of responsibilities, harmonising data and finding ways for data exchange (legal basis, IT issues), continuous cooperation May 2014

  6. STAGE 1 – User needs and resources • Progress made: • List of top priorities defined (4 countries) • Seminars, workshops or discussions held with users and data providers (5) • Interagency working group to review user needs • Press release explaining the 2008 SNA (Armenia) • Translation of SNA 2008 to national language available for users • Issues: How to explain changes to users, developing documentation and training materials, lack of resources May 2014

  7. STAGE 1 – 2008 SNA in Statistical Development Strategies • Progress made: • SNA implementation included (17 countries) • Master plan in preparation (1) • Global Assessment recommendations relating to 2008 SNA being included in the Development Strategy • National implementation plans on UNECE website • Issues: Need for future revisions of strategies, sharing good practices with more advanced countries May 2014

  8. STAGE 1 – Detailed action plan for 2008 SNA • Progress made: • Detailed 2008 SNA action plans adopted (10 countries) • Good progress in others, e.g. adoption soon • Revising detailed 2008 SNA action plans • Aligning technical assistance with 2008 SNA plans • Setting up interdepartmental working groups in NSO on the implementation • Issues: Clarification of priorities, coordination of work plans with other institutions, lack of resources, seeking support from public authorities May 2014

  9. Areas of future work and international support (Stage 1) • Exchanging experience on institutional arrangements • Communicate 2008 SNA and train users (6 countries) • Exchanging experience on implementing and revising 2008 SNA strategic plans (7) • Defining areas for further work with international experts • Collaboration with other government agencies May 2014

  10. STAGE 2 – Classifications and improvements in business statistics • Progress made: • New industry and product classifications implemented (10 countries) • New classifications in the process of adoption orimplementation started in others • Issues: implementing classifications on institutional sectors and financial assets; backcasting; further improving business registers, e.g. coverage and sectorisation; lack of resources May 2014

  11. STAGE 2 – Changes in business statistics surveys • Progress made: • Revisions made to questionnaires (10 countries) • Analysis of existing data vs. SNA requirements ongoing • Questionnaires with double classification • New content of surveys, e.g. short-term & structural statistics; banking & insurance, computer software, R&D and IPP • New survey on innovation for R&D expenditure data etc. • Issues: Response burden; timeliness; budget constraints; data validation; data collection for financial corporations; quarterly surveys, bookkeeping standards May 2014

  12. STAGE 2 – Changes in other related NSO’s source statistics • Progress made: • Improved production systems and databases • Extended household budget surveys and improved LFS • Improved price indexes • Non-observed economy survey • Steps to set up NPISH collection • Issues: Staff and IT resource constrains, detailed data on extra budgetary funds May 2014

  13. STAGE 2 – Macroeconomic data compiled outside the office • Progress made: • GFS (with MoF) (8 countries) • BoP & monetary statistics (with CB) (6) • Solving discrepancies with BoP • Revising historical BoP time series • FISIM workbook based on MFS • Issues: Better coordination with CB and MoF, improving and harmonization of data for GFS, BoP and monetary statistics; recording of NPL; EDP tables; translating manuals May 2014

  14. STAGE 2 – Adaptation of administrative data sources • Progress made: • Discussions with admin data providers, e.g. on changes and data exchange • Changes to MoF data collection for SNA • Using new data from tax authorities • Integrated information system "e-statistics" for cooperation with administrative data sources • New statistics on the pension fund • Issues: Improve estimates of regional GDP from admin data; improve admin data use, collection forms and technology for data exchange, consistency of definitions and concepts, support from authorities in charge of admin registers May 2014

  15. STAGE 2 – IT and staff resources • Progress made: • New production systems → opportunities for professional growth • Improved data processing for surveys and electronic data collection • Seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP • Increased staff resources • Issues: Appropriate software needed (5); set up or redesign data warehousing; limited financial and/or human resources (7) May 2014

  16. Areas of future work and international support (Stage 2) • Integration with business registers & related statistics (11 countries) • Revisions of time series and backcasting (5) • Coordinated development of BoP, monetary statistics and GFS (9) • Training IT staff on the necessary modernization (9) May 2014

  17. STAGE 3 – Development of National Accounts • Main priorities in the national implementation plans and UNECE regional recommendations • Basic indicators of GDP (Milestone I) • Measurement of services (incl. 2008 SNA financial services) • Constant prices: deflators, double deflation, chain linking • Exhaustiveness (incl. Informal and illegal activities) • Government sector: accruals, coverage • Balancing in a supply and use framework • Measures of GFCF and CFC (incl. 2008 SNA assets boundary) • Improvements in QNA, seasonal adjustments methods • GNI and other primary indicators - Milestone 2 • Institutional sector accounts: Milestones 3 to 6 May 2014

  18. STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP • Significant progress in relation to GDP measures. • General improvements in NA in all 18 countries • 2008 SNA changes: 14 countries started work and 4 planned • Ukraine developed estimates for major changes affecting GDP • 5 countries finalized estimates for 1 or more 2008 SNA changes (4 FISIM, 2 Insurance, 2 Output of CB; 1 R&D) • Majority of countries have taken step-by-step approach for the implementation of the 2008 SNA May 2014

  19. STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP • Work under national strategies for development of statistics: significant involvement of national resources • International support: • Twinning projects and different forms of bilateral support • IPA funds, IMF assistance programs, WB Projects • Methodological guidelines: • International manuals developed by IMF, OECD, UNSD/ECB, Eurostat • Specific recommendations by CIS-STAT, UNECE • Training seminars and workshops May 2014

  20. STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP • Annual National Accounts • Developing SUT and balancing in SUT framework: Albania, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Serbia, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan • Estimates of GDP by expenditure: independent estimates, implementation of new data sources/surveys (Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia&Herzegovina, Georgia, Mongolia, Montenegro, Serbia,…) • Improving GDP estimates by production: classification of units, statistical questionnaires, coverage of statistical surveys (Georgia, Montenegro, Turkmenistan, ..) • Implementation of income approach (Serbia) May 2014

  21. STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP • Quarterly National Accounts • QNA by productions approach: Bosnia, Montenegro • QNA by expenditure approach: Serbia, Albania (experimental), Bosnia (in-progress) • Experimental estimates for discrete quarters: Uzbekistan • Seasonal Adjustment: Moldova • Improving QNA: Albania, Armenia, Moldova, Mongolia, Serbia, • Constant Price Estimates • Chain linking, revision of constant price series: Albania, Armenia, Moldova • Double deflation based on SUT: Albania, Azerbaijan • Expenditure components in constant prices • Constant price estimates for taxes, government output, FISIM May 2014

  22. STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP • Non-observed economy • Majority of countries improved estimates of NOE • ..but only few included them in national accounts series • Eurostat tabular approach most often used • Specific surveys/data bases developed • Issues: illegal activities, inclusion in the accounts and revision of data series • Imputed rent • New method based on user cost approach in 5 countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Ukraine • Issues: Price indices for housing, constant prices May 2014

  23. STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP • Improving methods for GFCF and CFC in about half of the countries • Revision of the questionnaires • Revisions in the estimation methods by types of assets • Implementation of perpetual inventory method (PIM) • Issues: estimates for Households and Government sectors May 2014

  24. STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP • R&D expenditure • Estimates completed in Azerbaijan (experimental), fYROM, Ukraine • On-going work in Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Uzbekistan • Revision of surveys and exploring new data sources • Issues: Building time series, data availability for the government sector May 2014

  25. STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP Military expenditure • Estimates completed in Azerbaijan (experimental), Mongolia?, Ukraine • On-going work in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, fYROM, Moldova, Mongolia, Uzbekistan • Agreements and workshops with Ministries of Fefense or Finance • Issues: Confidential data Computer software (fYROM), Land improvements (fYROM), mineral exploration (Albania) • Improvement of questionnaires • Additional data sources May 2014

  26. STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP • Financial services • FISIM • New method is implemented in Albania, Azerbaijan, Mongolia, Russian Federation, Serbia, Ukraine. • Experimental calculations in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Uzbekistan • Issues: imports and export of FISIM, constant price estimates, lack of detailed information from the CB May 2014

  27. STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP Financial Services • Output of Central Bank • New method implemented in Albania and Uzbekistan • Experimental calculations and on-going work in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Tajikistan • Insurance services (Albania, Kazakhstan Ukraine, Uzbekistan) • Issues: output of reinsurance services, output of non-life insurance • Pension Funds (Kazakhstan) May 2014

  28. STAGE 3 – GNI and other primary indicators • Work is under way in 14 countries • Together with Central Banks as compilers of BoP • Reconciling the estimates on export and imports, FDI survey, current and capital transfers, • Issues: remittances, IT issues, Data Warehouse System for adequate data processing, • Coordination of the revision of data series in line BPM6 and 2008 SNA May 2014

  29. STAGE 3 – Institutional sector accounts: • Non-financial accounts: work under way in 12 countries • Developing sector accounts in steps, some first for government sector, some for production accounts • Challenges in obtaining the required data from other institutions, exploring data sources • Financial Accounts: Mainly experimental calculations • Completed in Russian Federation (Central Bank) • Ongoing work in 4 countries • Arrangements with the CB, exploring data sources, revision of questionnaires, classifications, IT issues May 2014

  30. STAGE 3 – Institutional sector accounts: • Balance Sheets: Mainly at initial stages • Examination of methods and data sources • Issues: Institutional sector classification, Coverage of Government sector and sub-sectors, Sub-sectoring of financial institutions, classification of assets May 2014

  31. Stage 3 – Priorities, Challenges, Technical assistance Priority I: GDP, GNI and basic indicators: finalize existing national programmes and publish the revised time series • Financial services, GFCF, NOE, constant prices, improving scope and quality of accounts, QNA, harmonizing BoP and SNA • Implement the experimental estimates in the accounts, revision of time series, communication to users Step-by-step approach vs major revision? Coordination with other instritutions (e. BoP compilers)? Coordination with other countres? • Experts support; exchange of experience (including with countries from the region), training May 2014

  32. Stage 3 – Priorities, Challenges, Technical assistance Priority II ? Financial accounts? Balance sheets? Non-financial sector accounts? • Institutional sector classification: agreed and consistently applied by the NSO, CB and MoF • Implementation and use of GFS data in national accounts • Classification of assets: non-financial and financial • Valuation of assets and transactions • Involvement of Central Banks and/or Ministries of Finance • Training, workshops, guidance and recommendations, study visits and experts support May 2014