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Global Economy and Global Warming

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  1. Global Economy and Global Warming Dr. Sandra Cruz-Pol Professor Electrical and Computer Engineering CLiMMATe Lab Director (Cloud Microwave Measurements of ATmospheric Event) UPRM-PI for the Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) February 22, 2007

  2. This presentation can be found at: http://ece.uprm.edu/~pol/outreach

  3. Global Economy What’s the advantage of enhancing global economy? Global Warming Global Economy

  4. Outline • Problem: • Global Economy • Global Warming 2.Solutions: • individuals, • industry-governments

  5. Economic Divide World $ 1800 *Sachs, 2005 YEAR

  6. GNP per capita purchasing power parity

  7. Poverty Trap – Clinical Economics • Physical Geography • Arid conditions, high transport cost, isolation, mountain ranges, lack of navigable rivers, disease, climate • Cultural Barriers • Role of women, ethic minorities, education • Geopolitics: war, trade barriers, sanctions, debt • Lack of technology • Closed market =>Countries too poor to develop =>Need $ to hop onto 1st step of economic ladder

  8. Why did England flourished? • Open market • Island- used to navigation, trading • Technology- coal, steam engine • Weather – not prompt for disease, mosquitoes • Education • Basic needs: Nutrition, Health, Water • Infrastructure

  9. China & India Certain conditions helped these 2 countries flourish economically. Usually Green Revolution follows technological growth. • India: invested in education; Indian Institutes of Technology, now paying off; now a world IT leader. • Was an English colony until 1947. • Began economic reforms in 1991 (Open Market)

  10. China & India… • China: growing economic rate (9%!) in the World, after it opened to global trading. • Ancient civilization. Past technology leader, until 1400’s. • 1434 Ming emperor closes international trade, dismantled world’s largest fleet of ocean vessels. • Japan invasion 1937. Mao Tse-tung 1949- 1976. • Market reforms began 1978. ***Global Warming: coal , oil…

  11. Why is Africa an exception? Too much Corruption Laziness of people +Sexually active: AIDS Bad land-use ---------------------------------Myth#1: Truth: Less corrupted ----------------------------Myth#2Truth: Backbreaking labor ----------------------------------Myth#3Truth: Equal or less -----------------------Myth#4Truth: Global warming

  12. Lake Chad • Was the 6th largest lake in the World! • A study by U. Wisconsin-Madison and NASA's EOS, the lake is now 1/20th of the size it was 35 years ago. • W. Africa (Chad, Niger, Nigeria, & Cameroon), the region has suffered from an increasingly dry climate, experiencing decline in rain since early 1960s. We are causing Extreme poverty in Africa due to our emissions which accounts for 25% of all world emissions compared to Africa’s 3%.

  13. Why is Africa an exception? • Geography • Disease prompt weather: malaria • Vast regions with no navigable rivers • Sparsely populated • Lack of infrastructure: roads, bridges, etc. • Lack of health systems • Years of exploitation • Political reasons; frontiers set by Europeans, • Huge external debt • Global warming due to developed world emissions

  14. We can banish extreme poverty , • “yet 8 million people die each year because they are too poor to survive.” , J.Sachs, The End of Poverty With only $70/person/year for 5 years, we can help poor countries be self-sustained! ($0.21 daily) • Currently, U.S. gives ~$15/pp/yr.

  15. World's governments committed to provide 0.7% of rich-countries' gross domestic product (GDP) to Official Development Assistance. First pledged 35 years ago in a 1970 General Assembly Resolution, … has been affirmed many times over the years, including the 2002 Monterrey Consensus.

  16. Charities help provide the basics: foodmedicinesvaccineseducation shelterclean water

  17. Extreme poverty UN Millennium Project GOALS: (www.unmillenniumproject.org) • Half extreme poverty by 2015 • Aims to end extreme poverty by 2025 • What is extreme poverty? • Versus relative poverty?

  18. MP Goals: Significant progress:1990 – 2002 • Average overall incomes increased by ~ 21 percent. • The # of people in extreme poverty declined by an estimated 130 million. • Child mortality rates fell from 103 to 88 deaths per 1,000 live births a year. • Life expectancy rose from 63 to 65 years. • An additional 8% of the developing world's people received access to water. • And an additional 15% acquired access to improved sanitation services.

  19. Why bother? -----------------------------------------------------------Another Myth! Less poor abroad means more poor here. • “Hard evidence has established strong linkages between extreme poverty abroad and the threats to national security.” • Better global economy provides new technologies developed in a diverse world. More products for everyone. “Eliminating extreme poverty is a global responsibility that will have global benefits” • Money spent on war instead could go to help the poor be self-sustained, to new technologies to stop global warming. • This is the only way to achieve Global Peace

  20. Poverty - a conflict generating factor “There is a close relation between poverty and internal conflict.“ Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 2001

  21. Global Warming • Global Warming is NOT a theory; it’s a FACT.* • Scientific consensus: It’s caused by human activity, mainly carbon dioxide emissions.* • It’s happening now* • Some of its consequences are irreversible!* *According to the most recent UN-IPCC 4th report published on Feb 2, 2007.

  22. Global Warming

  23. Global Warming • World before Industrial revolution, 1800 • CO2 level low <280ppm. • ~No fossil fuel emissions (oil, coal, gas). • Radiative transfer yielded thermodynamic global climate equilibrium for the last 100,000 years • Atmosphere like a blanket Heat-trapping IR greenhouse gases.

  24. A report in 2006 by economist Sir Nicholas Stern concludes that global warming could shrink the global economy by 20%!

  25. CO2 in the atmosphereYears: 1960-2000

  26. CO2 in Atmosphere Years: 1000 -2100

  27. } Cold due to sulfuric emissions: (1940-1970) which caused lung cancer, asthma & acid rain Clean Air Act Global average temperatureYears: 1860-2000

  28. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/sci_nat/04/climate_change/html/climate.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/sci_nat/04/climate_change/html/climate.stm

  29. Consequences: • Polar caps melt • Sea level rise • Extreme temperatures: BOTH cold and hot • Cyclones/tornadoes • Drought / floods • Disease • Agriculture losses • Water (potable) scarcity • Extinction of animal species, corals, vegetation • Worst case scenario: stop ocean conveyor belt

  30. Puerto Rico Dry Season Puerto Rico Wet Season

  31. Kilimanjaro (Tanzania, Africa) 30 years later…

  32. Patagonia (Argentina)Longest Glacier in S.A. 1928 2004

  33. Costa Rica First official lost species due to Global warming: golden toad Female Male

  34. Hurricanes • 10 hottest years ever, occurred in the last 14 yrs. • Hottest of all time, 2006. • 2004 1st hurricane ever in the S. Altantic Ocean • 2005 highest # of hurricanes, • most intense, 6 Greek letters • 2005 Wilma strongest hurricane ever recorded AO Then… • 2006 Monica strongest hurricane ever recorded • Luckily, this year, El Niño decreases # hurricanes

  35. Potential Flooding in PR

  36. Icebergs with caves = broken food chain 60% of krill population killed because of this. Krill are small shrimp-like crustaceans zooplankton, food for baleen whales, mantas, whale sharks, seals, and a few seabird species

  37. Worst case scenario: abrupt changeIPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Due to change in salinity, if Artic keeps melting, this current could stop, creating a small ice age in Europe and North America.

  38. On top of this… New blooming economies want to live their own version of the “American Dream”. Example: in China, the traditional bicycle lane was closed to lay way to an extra automobile lane. India is now also flourishing economically and greatly increasing their CO2 emissions.

  39. Crecimiento Población Mundial 2000 1987 1975 1960 1930 1800 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Tardó TODA la historia de la humanidad para llegar a 1,000 millones en 1800. X mil millones 10,000 BC 5,000 BC Year 0 1000 2000

  40. Also Political Issues • Oil industry interests, • Lobbyists • Governments covering up scientific evidence • (e.g. NASA climatologist, Jim Hansen) • Real cost of Nuclear energy • versus cost of clean energy like solar or wind • Health hazards, radioactive waste deposit

  41. Potential Solutions Reduce CO2 emissions: • Reduce energy consumption • Alternative green power: solar, wind, biofuels,… • Reforestation • Increase fuel efficiency; e.g. fuel cell, hybrid cars Scientific propositions: • CO2 sequestration • Inject sulfur in stratosphere • Distribute iron oxide to SA ocean Emission trading- Kyoto Protocol: • Signed by 135 nations to reduce emissions. • Not signed by U.S. or Australia!, the 2 nations with the highest emissions.