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Population Ageing: Strategies for the Future

Explore the impact of population ageing across four dimensions: Numerical Ageing, Structural Ageing, Natural Decline, and Absolute Decline. Understand the changing demographic trends, regional diversity, and implications for industries and society. Plan for the guaranteed increase in the elderly population and prepare for the structural changes ahead in the workforce and communities.

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Population Ageing: Strategies for the Future

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  1. Population Ageing in four dimensions: a strategic look at the future Dr Natalie Jackson  University of Tasmania

  2. Projected change by age (%): (Australia, high series)

  3. Projected Change by broad age group

  4. Regional Diversity: • Between now and 2019 almost half of Australia’s 714 local government areas are projected to either decline in size or not to grow • Net migration loss at young adult ages, sometimes gain at older ages • Premature ageing • But all will grow at the older ages

  5. Have you seen this man?

  6. Population Ageing: 4 dimensions • Numerical Ageing • Increase in numbers of elderly (primarily caused by increased life expectancy) • Structural ageing • Increase in proportions of elderly (primarily caused by low/falling birth rates) • Natural decline • More elderly than children   more deaths than births (already in many LGAs) • Absolute decline • Inability of replacement migration to replace the ‘lost’ births and increased deaths

  7. Numerical ageing Increased numbers due to improved life expectancy + baby boomers

  8. A guaranteed growth industry.. • Those who will be 65+ in ten years time are already 55+. • Currently around 2.6 million Australians aged 65+ years • By 2015, 3.7 mill; by 2025, 5.2 mill 65+ years A B

  9. Growing as we speak.. A B

  10. Time to plan /prepare

  11. Message # 1 Massive increase in numbers of elderly is guaranteed There is time to plan Trends will differ by region

  12. Structural ageing Changing proportions due to low birth rates; + increased numbers of elderly

  13. Structural Ageing (high series, Australia)

  14. Projected change by age (%): (Victoria, high series – ANM 18,500, TFR 1.7)

  15. Projected Change by broad age group

  16. Diversity by State (c.2004)

  17. Diversity by LGA (c.2004)

  18. Diversity: Structural Change (%)

  19. There is more to population ageing than meets the eye

  20. The baby boomers biggest gift • OECD next 25 years: 70 million retirements, to be replaced by just 5 million labour market entrants • Past 25 years: 45 million retirements, replaced by 120 million baby boomers • Absolute decline in working age population = 65 million

  21. Structural crossover: Entrants/Exits (Labour market, Australia, high series) 2018

  22. Regional Diversity (Victoria, high series) 2019

  23. Negative by 2010 in 2 States (Projected Entry/Exit ratios by State, High variant) 2010 2018

  24. How different from the past? (Entry/Exit ratios by State, High variant) Past Projected

  25. The good news(Entry/Exit Ratios and Unemployment)

  26. Victoria’s correlation 100%

  27. More Regional Diversity

  28. Organisational Renewal Recruitment, Retention Geographic Location

  29. Government Admin & Defence (#9/17) Males Females E:E 1.0

  30. Age structure of session attendees

  31. ‘Older’ Industries

  32. ‘Middle-Aged’ Industries

  33. ‘Middle - Younger’ Industries

  34. Overlay geographic location (Queensland, Percentage 65+ years 2003)

  35. Another crossover: Elderly/Children(Australia, high series) Crossover 2019

  36. Message # 2 Structural ageing affects all age groups • Trends differ by region • Many positives (competition for the young; declining uep; increasing incomes) • Many negatives (increasing labour market costs; problems with recruitment, retention; reduced tertiary training) • No net effect

  37. Natural Decline More elderly than children >> more deaths than births Already extant in many LGAs Insufficient ‘replacement migration’ >> absolute decline Ethnic composition changing rapidly

  38. Natural Increase and Net Migration(1971-2001)

  39. Natural Increase (Victoria) Negative by 2036

  40. Population ‘Churning’ and Ethnic Composition • Focus on net international migration gain (c. 125,000 p.a.); sustainability? • Around 16.5 million movements per year • 8.3 mill. arrivals 8.2 mill. departures • Permanent arrivals 93,900 • Permanent Departures 50,500 (net 43,400) • Long term (but temporary) arrivals 328,000 • Long term departures 247,000 (net 81,000) • Migrants increasingly from developing countries • Increasingly different ethnic composition • 420,000 arrivals / 300,000 departures

  41. In sum • Reconceptualise what is meant by ‘growth’ • Build both numerical and structural ageing, population churning, changing ethnic composition into planning • Understand the regionally diverse nature of population ageing • Accept; Buffer; Celebrate

  42. Thankyou Natalie.Jackson@utas.edu.au http://www.taspop.tasbis.com

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