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Generation Reliability Calculation Methodology

Generation Reliability Calculation Methodology. Presentation to the NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Committee. Presentation. Introduction Actual tool FEP - Methodology New tool FEPMC - Methodology Input Comparison Output Comparison FEPMC – Advantages Simulations Next Steps. Introduction.

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Generation Reliability Calculation Methodology

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  1. Generation Reliability Calculation Methodology Presentation to the NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Committee

  2. Presentation • Introduction • Actual tool FEP - Methodology • New tool FEPMC - Methodology • Input Comparison • Output Comparison • FEPMC – Advantages • Simulations • Next Steps

  3. Introduction • In 2003, Hydro-Québec started the development of a new model to better assess its resources adequacy • Incentives • Better assessment of demand and supply side benefits • Introduction of transmission constraints in reliability assessments • Elimination of manual data entry (risk of error) • Improvement of user interface

  4. Installed Capacity Planned Outage Pk 1 Available Capacity Outage causing a loss of load Lk Ok Load Duration Curve MW Tk Actual tool FEP - Methodology • Description • The program convolves a monthly load duration curve and a probability curve of forced outages to calculate LOLE

  5. Actual tool FEP - Methodology • Load Model • Monthly load duration curve with annual peak load forced in January • Load forecast uncertainty (LFU) • Normal distribution where the standard deviation is a percentage of the load forecast • Structural and climatic uncertainties • Capacity Model • Forced outages probability curve • Cumulative probability curve for total forced outages

  6. New tool FEPMC - Methodology • Description • The new program calculates the installed capacity margin for all 8760 hours and derives LOLE from the hours where available resources are lower than firm commitments plus synchronous reserve (250 MW) • Load Model • 210 chronological zonal load profiles • Load forecast applied to last 30 years weather profiles • Weather profile offsets of ± 3 days • Structural uncertainty normally distributed

  7. New tool FEPMC - Methodology • Capacity Model • Forced outages generated using Monte-Carlo statistical method • Number and length of forced outages based on historical data for every unit • Tie benefits • No tie benefits are taken into account • Only firm external sales and purchases are considered • Convergence • Relatively high number of cycles required for convergence

  8. Convergence Test - FEP MC 2,19 2,18 2,17 2,16 2,15 2,14 LOLE (hours/year) 2,13 2,12 2,11 2,1 2,09 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 Number of years simulated Complete Execution Mid Execution Short Execution New tool FEPMC - Methodology

  9. New tool FEPMC - Methodology • Transmission System representation • DC load flow simulation

  10. Input Comparison

  11. Output Comparison

  12. FEPMC - Advantages • More realistic assessment of resources availability • Representation of transmission constraints (congestion) • Automatic data transfer • Evaluation of benefits of demand and supply side management programs

  13. Simulations - IEEE Test Grid • Simplified network and load • Fixed parameters (LFU, EFOR, Maintenance) • FEP does not take into account the transfer of unused volumes of energy from one month to the other

  14. Simulations – Hydro-Québec Grid • Simulation with a constrained version of FEPMC to establish a base comparison with FEP • Load duration curve built from chronological load profiles • Same load forecast uncertainties • Monthly planned outages • Fixed quantities for demand and supply side management • Transmission constraints not taken into account • The installed reserve margins obtained with FEP and FEPMC were within 5%

  15. Simulations – Hydro-Québec Grid • Simulation with the introduction of the 210 chronological zonal load shapes instead of the load duration curve for FEPMC • Results show the 210 load profiles are more stringent than a normal distribution.

  16. Simulations – Hydro-Québec Grid • Simulation with the introduction of all the other FEPMC features (except transmission constraints) • LOLE is slightly lowered for the following reasons: • By forcing the annual peak load in January, the FEP model artificially overestimates demand • Better modeling of demand and production side management programs

  17. Next Steps • Validation of the transmission modeling impact on resource adequacy • Reduce calculation time

  18. Hugo Sansoucy sansoucy.hugo@hydro.qc.ca Tél.: (514) 289-6873 Fax: (514) 289-6882

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