Green Energy - from Innovation to a Vibrant Industry

1. Green Energy -from Innovation to a Vibrant Industry Eicke R. Weber Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010

2. Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Largest European solar energy research institute >930 members of staff (incl. students) 10% basic financing 90% contract research 40% industry, 60% public € 56 M total budget (‘09) > 10% p.a. growth rate • Areas of business: • Photovoltaics • Solar Thermal Technologies • Renewable Power Generation • Energy-Efficient Buildings and • Technical Building Components • Applied Optics and Functional • Surfaces • Hydrogen Technology

3. Fraunhofer Alliance Energy • Strong German research network of 14 institutes in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies • Partnership of Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems CSE in Boston with Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology (MIT), Cambridge, MA • Customer’s benefits • New technologies for energy and efficiency • Innovative and intelligent energy concepts • Strengthened competitiveness and success in the market ISIT IWES IFF UMSICHT IKTS IWES IITB/AST ISC IISB, IIS ISI ICT IBP, IGB ISE IBP www.energy.fraunhofer.de

4. We are Facing the Urgent Challenge of a Drastic Change in our Global Energy System • Protection of the foundation of life as-we-know-it by fast reduction of CO2 emissions • Limitation of fossil energy leads to increasing energy prices • Reduction of geopolitical conflict potential based on fossil fuels

5. The Transformation into a Green Energy Future Requires: • Increased energy efficiency in buildings, transport (e-mobility) and production • Rapid development of all renewable energies, especially wind, PV, ST, hydro, geothermal and biomass towards a 100% renewable energy future • Expansion of the electricity grid for long-distance transport and smart consumers • My suggestion for climate discussion: Replace CO2 reduction targets by Renewable Energy introduction targets!

6. EJ/a TW 50 Geothermal Other Renewables 1400 Solarthermal (Heat only) 40 Solar Electricity (PV und solarthermal) 1000 30 Wind Biomass (modern) Biomass (traditional) 20 600 Hydropower Nuclear Energy 10 Gas 200 Coal 0 Oil 2020 2100 2000 2040 Year Exemplary Path, Global Primary Energy Consumption Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de

7. Annual Installation of PV Modules (worldwide) 2009: 6,43 GWp Actual Shipments Projection (2003) 2003: 600 MWp Sources: 2000-2003 Strategies Unlimited, 2006 EPIA “solar generation”, 2007 LBBW Report, 2010 SolarBuzz

8. 2010 2020 Learning Curve of Crystalline Si PV Module Prices [€/Wp] hcell [%] = 10 15 18 20 slope: 22% decrease for each doubling of installed capacity 100 1980 1990 2000 10 2004 (25%) 2007 (30%) 1 d [µm] = 400 300 200 100 50 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 1 10 102 103 Installed Peak Power (cumulated) [GWp] Slide courtesy of G. Willeke

9. mg-Si powder exhaust (SiHCl3, SiCL4, H2, Metall Chloride) hot Si dust quartz tube heating HCl From mg-Si to Ultrapure poly-Si: the Siemens Process ca. 100.000 t/a ca. $50/kg fractional distillation ‘fluidised bed’ reactor Siemens Silicon Plant Alternative Technology for PV: upgraded metallurgical Si, umg-Si, without using the gas phase

10. Solar Cell Conversion Efficiency with 100% umg-Si New Metallization  Median per ingot A B Emitter  • Each data point represents the median efficiency for one ingot (~ 10,000 cells) • Median efficiency reaches 16% • Record cells approaching 17% Slide courtesy of CaliSolar 01/11/2010 CaliSolar Confidential 10

11. High-Efficiency ISE Triple-Junction Solar Cells Ga0.65In0.35P tunnel diode Ga0.83In0.17As tunnel diode Ge substrate

12. Realization : FLATCON® System by Concentrix • III-V based tandem cells • Cgeo = 500x • Point focus Fresnel lenses • Housing made of glass

13. Desertec - Vision of an Electricity Super Grid

14. Intelligent Use of Energy (Smart Grids) Import/Export HGÜ • Future Structure of Electricity Supply: Supergrid with distributed Responsibilities 110/220/380 kV 10/20 kV Command Unit Distribution Operation 400 V Intelligent Grid Operation Prognosis: Generation andConsumption

15. Electricity Costs of Renewable Energies • Electricity Costs depend on number of operating hours • On-shore wind reaches parity with fossil energies • PV at good locations competitive with CSP Number: kWhr/kWp for PV, CSP, and wind Slide courtesy of C. Kost (Fraunhofer ISE)

16. Electricity Cost and Learning Curve Prediction • Steep PV learning curve results in costs that are competitive with conventional sources • (Onshore-) wind is competitive today • Offshore- wind has susbtantially higher costs, even long-term Source: C. Kost, Fraunhofer ISE

17. Energy Use of Residential Buildings End Energy Consumption in kWh/m²a CurrentAverage New Code 1995 New Code 2002 Heating Warm Water Other Electricity Household Electricity withSolar-energy use 3-LiterHouse Passiv-House Zero-emission + PV Source: H.M. Henning, Fraunhofer ISE

18. Employment in Selected Industries in Germany1998-2008 Quellen: Statistisches Bundesamt, Statistik der Kohlewirtschaft, BMU, Atomforum, VDA, Stand: 4/2009

19. Conclusion: The Green Energy Future • The goal is 100% renewable energy generation at greatly increased efficiency in energy consumption • The world is moving towards a green energy future; the open question is, how fast will we come there • This transition of the global energy market provides exciting opportunities to transfer innovation into jobs • Countries that blaze this trail will have great economic advantages in the form of stable energy prices and jobs in high- and low-tech sectors • Fraunhofer institutes are ideally prepared to work with research institutions and industry in ECA countries to accelerate this exciting development