Land Use and Cover Change Progress Report, 11 LBA SSC Meeting CENA, Piracicaba, 24 May 2002

1. Land Use and Cover ChangeProgress Report, 11 LBA SSC MeetingCENA, Piracicaba, 24 May 2002 • What was planned • What was achieved • What was not • Are there any things missing Diógenes Alves, INPE

2. Source: LBA Science Plan, 1996 Land Use and Cover Change LBA questions by 1996: • Rates and mechanisms of forest conversion to agricultural use • Relative importance of different land uses • Dynamics and patterns of land conversion and abandonment • Area of forest affected by selective logging • Plausible scenarios of future land cover change Research strategy: • Basin-wide studies of rates and spatial patterns of deforestation • Case studies of patterns of deforestation and abandonment • Integration of socioeconomic factors and conditions Methods: • Satellite remote sensing, government statistics, survey data

3. Remote Sensing in LUCC Research • Satellite data provide temporal and spatial dimensions to study the dynamics of vegetation and its disturbances over a wide range of scales • Frequency of occurrence and extent of fires and distribution of atmospheric aerosols • Areas of expected new developments: • Radiative transfer modelling, forest regrowth stages, processing of active and passive microwave sensor images, atmospheric profiles of temperature and water vapour, cloud properties and precipitation • Landsat 7, MODIS, SPOT 5 Vegetation , CBERS, AVIRIS, ... • SIVAM airborne sensors • Laser Vegetation Imaging

4. Land Use and Cover ChangeProjects by research foci • Based on project list from LBA home page • Submissions to 2 Scient. Conf. not considered • More refined analysis of areas still required • Training/education and investigators affiliation not considered • LBA/DIS aspects not considered • New proposals not considered • Reflects personal perception about LBA and no-LBA projects

5. Rates, patterns and mechanisms of forest conversion and abandonment Agriculture colonization in the Ecuadorian Amazon Richard Bilsborrow & Stephen J.Walsh (U.N.Car.), Mario Garcia (Ecociencia) Anthropogenic landscape changes and the dynamics of Amazonian forest biomass W. Laurance (Smithsonian), R. G. Mesquita (INPA) Human and physical dimensions of land use/cover change E. Moran (IU), D. Valeriano (INPE) Measurements and modeling of the interannual dynamics of deforestation and secondary regrowth D. Skole (Mich.St.U.), M. Pedlowski (UENF), L.G.T. da Silva (Embrapa RO) Monitoring areas of wood exploration in the Amazon C.M. Souza Jr. - IMAZON Monitoring, management, and recovery of landscapes in eastern Acre I. Foster Brown - UFAC

6. Landscape research / Selective logging Land Cover/Land Use change and carbon dynamics I.F. Brown (WHRC), A. Setzer (INPE), E. Amaral (EMBRAPA Acre) Anthropogenic landscape changes and biomass Validation and evaluation of MODIS data products A. Huete (U. Ariz.), Y. Shimabukuro (INPE), E. Sano (Embrapa) Multi-scale analyses of inundation J. Melack (U.C.S.B.), E.M. Novo (INPE) Human and physical dimensions of land use/cover change Measurements and modeling of the interannual dynamics Evaluation of EO-1 Hyperion and ALI for forest logging G. Asner (U Colorado), Natalino Silva (Embrapa Amz Oriental) Selective Logging and Phenology from Spectroscopy and Radar G. Asner (Carnegie Inst.), J. Natalino Silva (Embrapa Amz Oriental) Monitoring areas of wood exploration in the Amazon Monitoring, management, and recovery of landscapes in Acre

7. Land cover* / Biogeochemistry / Hydrology Land Cover/Land Use change and carbon dynamics Radar remote sensing of land cover and biomass in Amazonia Validation and evaluation of MODIS data products Multi-scale analyses of inundation Modeling the biogeochemical system Mapping study of the Amazon Basin with JERS-1 Near-Real time South American GAC data production Low-cost evaluation of EO-1 Hyperion and ALI for forest logging The effects of precipitation exclusion in the Amazon forest Mapping global aerodynamic roughness length at 1 km scale The effects of rainfall exclusion - Dry Cerrado Project Lidar Remote Sensing for Aboveground Biomass Selective Logging and Phenology from Spectroscopy and Radar Use of Airborne Remote Sensing for Uncertainty Assessments with MODIS Hyperspectral Analysis of Land-Cover in Rondonia

8. Land Use / Land Cover ChangeAreas of study Agriculture colonization in the Ecuadorian Amazon : Ecuador LUCC and carbon dynamics; Landscape in Eastern AC - Acre Radar remote sensing of land cover and biomass in Amazonia: Acre, Rondonia, Santarém Anthropogenic landscape changes and the dynamics of Amazonian forest biomass - Manaus Validation and evaluation of MODIS data products - Santarém, Brasilia Multi-scale analyses of inundation: Rondônia, Santarém Human and physical dimensions of land use/cover change: Pará, Rondônia, Colombia Measurements /modeling of interannual dynamics: Rondônia, Santarém Near-Real time South American GAC data production - B Wide Low-cost evaluation of EO-1 Hyperion and ALI for forest logging: Santarém The effects of precipitation exclusion in the Amazon forest Santarém, Brasília Mapping global aerodynamic roughness length of land surface at 1 km scale: B Wide The effects of rainfall exclusion - Dry Cerrado Project: Brasilia Lidar Remote Sensing for Aboveground Biomass : Rondônia, Santarém, Manaus Selective Logging and Phenology from Spectroscopy and Radar: Paragominas, Santarém Uncertainty Assessments with MODIS: Santarém, Brasilia, Canguçú (?) Hyperspectral Analysis of Land-Cover in Rondonia: Rondônia

9. Land Use / Cover ChangeMajor developments • Rates and mechanisms of forest conversion to agricultural land uses • Total deforestation and average rates - 1-3x106 ha yr-1 • Progress on case studies/few basin-wide analyses • Modest site representativeness (†); many critical areas ignored (†) • Mechanisms of forest conversion poorly understood(†) • Relative importance of different land uses • Census data still major source; other sources not representative (†) • Dynamics and patterns of land conversion and abandonment • Case studies helped to understand local dynamics (†) • Basin wide patterns and dynamics poorly understood (†) • Area of forest affected by selective logging each year • New developments from remote sensing and field surveys • Fate of the areas affected by selective logging to be better understood • Plausible scenarios of future land cover change - not much significant progress particularly due to items marked (†)

10. Land Use / Cover ChangeDataset development • Pathfinder and INPE datasets Land cover, deforestation and secondary vegetation Land use restricted to simplified forest/no for/defor/secondary vegetation • JERS-1 dataset • Flood plain mosaic • Airborne campaigns land cover: AVIRIS, LVIS How are these data to be treated in LBA DIS

11. Fearnside 1989?, Alves in press, Alves in press Land Use and Cover ChangeConcentration of forest clearing

12. Alves et al 1999, Alves et al Submitted Land Use and Cover ChangeForest reservations not preservedAbandonment decreases as land use is intensified

13. Alves in press Major effect of concentration of forest clearings: the development of a spatial continuum where pastures (and occasionally, grains) dominate the landscape Land Use and Cover ChangeEffects of concentration of forest clearing

14. Abstract submitted Land use intensification - cattle increses faster than pastures. Family agriculture crops decline. Pastures increase their importance

15. Questions to be answered From 1996 LBA objectives: • What are and where are the prevailing patterns ? • How does LUCC function for each of them ? Some “new” ones: • How they affect the carrying capacities ? • What are their characteristics related to land productivity and degradation ? • What are their characteristics related to urbanization, rural out migration and tenure structure (dynamics), rural conflicts, urbanization ... ? Remote sensing oportunities: • Patterns of landscape transfomation and deforestation • Patterns of landscape transfomation and land abandonment • Land degradation and productivity Production systems

16. More questions to be answered (close work with MCT needed here): • What are the missing gaps/questions that MCT would see as relevant to LBA to focus on ? Will MCT direct any additional efforts into improving this component ? • How does MCT see the role of its Institutes within this component? • Will future MCT research programmes encompass this component ? • How does MCT see this component in comparison with other well organized Federal programmes like PPG7, Avança Brasil, and, particularly, agricultural research ?