The Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scenario Builder

1. The Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scenario Builder Gary Shenk CCMP workshop 5/11/2010

2. Chesapeake Bay ProgramDecision Support System Land Use Change Model Criteria Assessment Procedures Bay Model Watershed Model Management Actions Scenario Builder Airshed Model Effects Allocations

3. Hourly Values: Rainfall Snowfall Temperature Evapotranspiration Wind Solar Radiation Dewpoint Cloud Cover Snapshot: Land Use Acreage BMPs Fertilizer Manure Atmospheric Deposition Point Sources Septic Loads Quick Overview of Watershed Model Scenarios Hourly output is summed over 10 years of hydrology to compare against other management scenarios 1991-2000 HSPF “Average Annual Flow-Adjusted Loads” 3

4. Non-Point Source Practices and ProgramsPractices With Nutrient and Sediment Reduction Efficiencies • Load reductions attributed to upland benefit employing “efficiencies” • Efficiencies can vary by hydro-geomorphic region Fertilizer Atmosphere Manure 25 land uses Runoff

5. Scenario BuilderSoftware that simulates land use and management for input to the Phase 5 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model 5

6. Watershed Model History 6 6

7. Watershed Model History Management questions and model have been both increasing exponentially in complexity. 7

8. Number of Scenarios Mid 1980s – 0 Early 1990s – fewer than 10 Late 1990s – 37 Early 2000s – 400-500 2010 model – about 100 pre-finalization 1000s? 8

9. Scenario Generation History • 1982 – no scenarios • 1985 - 1994 – Aquaterra and SAIC • simple scenarios through hand calculation and spreadsheets • modified watershed model by hand • 1995 – 2009 • series of increasingly interconnected spreadsheets • Automated Modification of watershed model • 2010 • Scenario Builder

11. Non-Point Source Practices and ProgramsPractices that Alter Nutrient Applications to Agriculture Land Phytase Precision Feeding/Forage Management Manure Transport

12. Watershed Wide Crops by Acreage Tracking yields and acreages on a county basis Approximately 100 crop types and 10 growing regions with different parameters for each 12 12

13. Outputs to Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model • BMPs • Descriptions • Acres • Pounds nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment reduced • Land uses • Manure (nutrient species/land use/month) • Septic system loads • Vegetative Cover • Fertilizer application • Legumes (pounds nitrogen) • Maximum crop uptake • Uptake curve (monthly nutrient uptake by land use)

14. Scenario Builder Versions • 1 Land use and Nutrient Inputs • 2 BMPs, point source, septic • 3 NEIEN implementation • 4 Summarized reports • 5 Web interface

15. Scenario Builder Planned Enhancements • Version 2.2a: System Maintenance and Documentation Release • System documentation updated • Version 2.3: Septic and Atmospheric Deposition • Add these are two new sub-systems • Version 2.4: BMP Descriptions and Other BMP Files • Accessory BMP files that the model needs to process BMP data from Scenario Builder. • Input the Phase 5.3 watershed model outputs • Version 2.5: Improve Animal Waste Management System BMPs and Dead Birds • Both are being addressed by BMPs now—will be addressed more accurately • Version 2.6: Wastewater Sub System • Will automate input data generation over 3,000 facilities • Version 3:NEIEN Exchange • Conversion of NEIEN BMP exchange data into Scenario Builder formats. • Version 4: Data Products • Developing reports or other data products that will stream-line the process for states, locals and other partners/stakeholders to request information • Version 5: User Interface • Evolution of version 2.2 User Interface for running “what if” scenarios

16. Co-Developers of the Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scenario Builder Chesapeake Bay Program Developers EPA U of MD TreCom USGS NRCS CRC VaTech Advisors and data suppliers NY, PA, MD, DE, VA, WV, DC