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Study on the climatic impacts of land use change in West Africa, focusing on drought, desertification, and deforestation. Workshop presentation covers model configuration, validation against data, sensitivity tests, and future research outlook.
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IMPACT OF LAND USE CHANGE ON THE CLIMATOLOGY OF WEST AFRICA SARR, A. (SENEGAL) MONKAM, D. (CAMEROUN) INTSIFUL, J.D (GHANA) WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
OUTLINE • INTRODUCTION • MODEL CONFIGURATION • VALIDATION AGAINST RE-ANALYSIS AND CRU DATA • SENSITIVITY TESTS • CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK FOR FUTURE RESEARCH WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
MOTIVATION • PRESENT UNIQUE FEATURES OF REGION • DROUGHT • DESERTIFICATION • DEFORESTATION LANDUSE CHANGE Sahel WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
MAIN CLIMATOLOGICALFEATURES • LOWER TROPOSPHERE (MONSOON) • MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE (AEJ) • UPPER TROSPOSPHERE (TEJ) WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
MODEL CONFIGURATION-1 • Physics : - Spatial resolution : • Horizontal - 50 km • Vertical - 18 and 23 level - Schemes : • AS / FC • GRELL / AS WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
MODEL CONFIGURATION-2 • Run length:38 days • 25/07/96 to 01/09/96 • 25/07/95 to 01/09/95 • Initial & lateral boundary conditions : ECMWF Re-analysis(ERA) WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
VALIDATION AGAINST REANALISES & CRU DATA • Surface temperature • Meridioanal flux at 925 hPa • Zonal wind filed at 700 hPa • Zonal wind field at 200 hPa WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
SENSITIVITY TESTS • Landuse change: • Default • Corrected • Scenarios - 75% desert, 25% savanna • CPS and Vertical Resolution WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
LANDUSE MAPS USGS Default Corrected Scenario WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
MLY. MEAN TEMPERATURE ERA DEF SCE COR WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
MONTHLY MEAN AEJ ERA DEF SCE WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
MONTHLY MEAN TEJ ERA DEF SCE WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
MONTHLY MEAN SPC. HUMIDITY ERA SCE DEF WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
PRECIP SCE-ACC DEF-ACC DEF-CONV WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK FOR FUTURE RESEARCH • OBSERVED CLIMATIC CHANGES IN LAND USE SCENARIO • GENERAL FEATURES OF TEMP.,TEJ & AEJ WELL CAPTURED WITH FEW DISCREPANCIES (LOCALLY) • GENERAL FEATURES OF HUMIDITY WELL CAPTURED BUT BIAS OVER THE OCEAN AND INLAND • FEATURES OF TOTAL PRECIP. POORLY CAPTURED DUE TO CONFIGURATION PROBLEMS AND PHYSICS • GENERAL FEATURES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP. WELL CAPTURED BUT SIGNAL TOO WEAK TO REFLECT IN TOTAL PRECIP. • RESULTS ONLY PRELIMINARY & NEEDS MORE OPTIMISATION • OF THE MODEL PHYSICS WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003
THANK YOU WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP 26-96 June 2003