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2008-09 Climate Recap and Outlook for Winter 2009-10

2008-09 Climate Recap and Outlook for Winter 2009-10. Eric Salathé JISAO Climate Impacts Group University of Washington. Recent Climate News: Global Temperatures. From NASA GISS. Recent Climate News: Arctic Sea Ice. Recent Climate News: Arctic Sea Ice. Recent Climate News:.

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2008-09 Climate Recap and Outlook for Winter 2009-10

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  1. 2008-09 Climate Recap and Outlook for Winter 2009-10 Eric Salathé JISAO Climate Impacts GroupUniversity of Washington

  2. Recent Climate News: Global Temperatures From NASA GISS

  3. Recent Climate News: Arctic Sea Ice

  4. Recent Climate News: Arctic Sea Ice

  5. Recent Climate News: CLIMATECHANGE Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions COPENHAGEN 2009, 10-12 March CO2 Emissions http://climatecongress.ku.dk/

  6. Recent Climate News: CLIMATECHANGE Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions COPENHAGEN 2009, 10-12 March Global Temperature

  7. CLIMATECHANGE Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions COPENHAGEN 2009, 10-12 March Recent Climate News: Sea Level

  8. U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During the Last 30 and 90 Days Last 90 Days 90-day (ending 26 Sept 2009) temperature departures (degree C) 90-day (ending 27 Sept 2009) % of average precipitation Last 30 Days 30-day (ending 26 Sept 2009) temperature departures (degree C) 30-day (ending 27 Sept 2009) % of average precipitation

  9. Mountain Snow and Precipitation Central Cascades Salmon Meadows (Northeast Cascades) Northeast Cascades

  10. U.S. Drought Conditions

  11. U.S. Drought Conditions

  12. El Niño Outlook • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 28 September 2009

  13. Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution

  14. NOAA Operational Definitions forEl Niño and La Niña El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5°C. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5°C. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 SST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

  15. ONI (oC): Evolution since 1950 The most recent ONI value (June – August 2009) is +0.7oC. El Niño neutral La Niña

  16. Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10. • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10. Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 Sept 2009).

  17. U. S. Seasonal OutlooksOctober – December 2009 The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and, when appropriate, the ENSO cycle.

  18. U. S. Seasonal OutlooksJanuary – March 2010 The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and, when appropriate, the ENSO cycle.

  19. U.S. Precipitation Departures (mm) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for El Niño during Oct.-Dec. FREQUENCY (right panel) indicates the percentage of El Niño years that the indicated departure (left panel) occurred. For example, below-average seasonal precipitation over western Washington occurred in 70-80% of El Niño years – 13-14 out of 18.

  20. U.S. Temperature Departures (°C) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for El Niño during Oct.-Dec.

  21. Summary • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

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