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This method provides initial prioritization of options for success, offers practical outcomes, and can be seamlessly integrated into strategic planning. Brainstorm scenarios, assign probabilities, develop options, and evaluate impact for effective decision-making.
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2009 Michael Jacoby mjacoby @niu.edu Steve Treacy steve@streacy.com
What it is: • A simple event based planning method that creates options for success and provides initial prioritization of those options. • Benefits: • Easy to apply, simple • Fast • Creates practical, usable outcomes. • Can be used with either scenarios, goals or options already developed. • Can be integrated easily into a strategic planning process.
How it works: • Brainstorm, then reduce to up to five likely scenarios • For each possible scenario, apply a value, 1-5 representing the probability that scenario will take place. • Create a column to list scenarios and a row for each. • Create a column to list probabilities. List values in column adjacent to scenarios • Develop options for each scenario. Each option is given a separate split column
How it works, cont’d: • After options are developed and listed, assign a value 0-10 that indicates impact that option has for each scenario. Place it in the left hand portion of the split column • Multiply the impact value by the likelihood of the scenario and place it in the right hand portion of the split column. • Add the values in the right hand portion of the split column.
How it works, cont’d: • Rank each option in terms of: • Difficulty • Time to results received • evaluate deliberate and decide!
The situation – to be finished • Jeff’s a third year education student at NIU been dating someone he likes a great deal blablabla and is thinking about his future
