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BASIC forecasting techniques:. Persistence Modified Persistence Extrapolation Trend Association/ Analogous Methods Answers the million dollar question: “ …. what upstream location …?”. Analogous Thickness Methods. Temperature forecasts Find upstream location where air mass is coming from

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basic forecasting techniques
BASIC forecasting techniques:
  • Persistence
  • Modified Persistence
  • Extrapolation
  • Trend
  • Association/ Analogous Methods
    • Answers the million dollar question:

“ …. what upstream location …?”

analogous thickness methods
Analogous Thickness Methods
  • Temperature forecasts
    • Find upstream location where air mass is coming from
    • Use slp and thickness to approximate upstream location (note features too!)
    • For daytime max:
      • Compare 00z to 00z, or 18z to 18z
    • For nighttime min:
      • Compare 12z to 12z
temperature forecasting analogous thickness
Temperature Forecasting:Analogous Thickness

00z Sunday: 9/2/01

00z Saturday: 9/1/01

analogous thickness
Analogous Thickness
  • Dew Point Forecasting
    • Find upstream location where air mass is coming from
    • Use slp and thickness to approximate upstream location (note features too!)
case example mdt
Case Example: MDT

SEPTEMBER 4, 2001

MDT’s

Dew Point 18z

on Sept. 4th?

70F

MDT’s Dew

Point at 18z

On Sept. 5th?

mdt analogous thickness
MDT: Analogous Thickness

MDT’s

Thickness?

569dm

MDT’s

SLP?

1019mb

MDT’s location

Relative to Fronts,

Highs or lows?

mdt dew analogous thickness
MDT DEW: Analogous Thickness

Thickness?

569dm

SLP?

1019mb

MDT’s location

Relative to Fronts,

Highs or lows?

case example mdt1
Case Example: MDT

SEPTEMBER 4, 2001

Analogous

Dew Point?

53-57F

case example mdt2
Case Example: MDT

Ladies and

gentlemen

the MDT DEW

is …………

analogous thickness1
Analogous Thickness
  • Caveats
    • Not all locations with = thick/slp values are the “analogous” site
    • cyclogenesis, anticylcgenisis
    • Consider air mass modification/local effects
      • Snow cover
      • Wind off large body of water
    • Analogous site should be of similar altitude
    • Errors can occur near strong fronts