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External Trade in Brazil: Recent Developments Pablo Fonseca P. dos Santos Paris - OECD November 22, 2004
Graph I: Nominal and Real Exchange Rate1, 1998 - 2004 (October)(index: July 1994 = 100) 2
Graph II: Trade Balance, 1998 - 2004 (October)(US$ billions; accumulated over 12 months) 3
Graph III: Exports Quantum by Class of Products(12 months moving average) Source: Funcex. 5
Liberalizing reforms of the 1990’s - Privatizations - Reduction of trade tariffs Some industry examples - airplanes - steel - textiles FDI - automobiles - mobile phones R&D and investments in the agricultural sector Some Facts About the Structural Component of the Brazilian Trade Performance
Graph IV: Export Quantum, 1997 - 2004*(% change over previous year) 8
Brazilian firms are increasingly becoming more export oriented Policies to incentive exports Macroeconomic Stability - Necessary but not sufficient condition Microeconomic Reforms Agenda - Improvement of the business environment - Reduction of the cost of credit - Infrastructure investment (PPP, regulatory framework) - Improvement of the tax structure - R&D (new law being discussed by the Senate) - education Trade negotiations - High tariffs and non tariff restrictions on products that Brazil is more competitive Will Export Performance Keep Up?
Table VI: Improving Business Climate Structural Reform Checklist 14