North Carolina House Bill 819 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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North Carolina House Bill 819
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North Carolina House Bill 819

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  1. North Carolina House Bill 819 Did NC Make Sea Level Rise Illegal?

  2. What is in NC House Bill 819? April 28, 2011House Bill Passed The Division of Coastal Management shall be the only State agency authorized to develop rates of sea-level rise and shall do so only at the request of the Commission. These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time period following the year 1900. Rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated linearly to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise. http://www.nccoast.org/uploads/documents/CRO/2012-5/SLR-bill.pdf

  3. April 28, 2011House Bill Passed The Division of Coastal Management shall be the only State agency authorized to develop rates of sea-level rise and shall do so only at the request of the Commission. These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time period following the year 1900. Rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated linearly to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise. http://www.nccoast.org/uploads/documents/CRO/2012-5/SLR-bill.pdf

  4. June 12, 2011Senate Bill Passed (c) The Coastal Resources Commission shall be the only State agency authorized to define rates of sea-level rise for regulatory purposes… Historic rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise unless such rates are from statistically significant, peer-reviewed data and are consistent with historic trends. http://d20b91ibeoos7k.cloudfront.net/static/billtext/40499.pdf

  5. June 12, 2011Senate Bill Passed (c) The Coastal Resources Commission shall be the only State agency authorized to define rates of sea-level rise for regulatory purposes… Historic rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise unless such rates are from statistically significant, peer-reviewed data and are consistent with historic trends. http://d20b91ibeoos7k.cloudfront.net/static/billtext/40499.pdf

  6. August 3, 2011Bill Becomes Law (c) Nothing in this section shall be construed to prohibit a county, municipality, or other local government entity from defining rates of sea-level change for regulatory purposes. (e) The Commission shall be the only State agency authorized to define rates of sea-level change for regulatory purposes. SECTION 2.(b) The Coastal Resources Commission …shall not define rates of sea-level change for regulatory purposes prior to July 1, 2016. http://d20b91ibeoos7k.cloudfront.net/static/billtext/40900.pdf

  7. Who Sponsored House Bill 819? Sea Level Rise. NC-20, n.d. Web. 21 Nov. 2012. <http://www.nc-20.com/sealevelrise.htm>.

  8. What does NC-20 think about Sea Level Rise? Sea Level Rise. NC-20, n.d. Web. 21 Nov. 2012. <http://www.nc-20.com/sealevelrise.htm>.

  9. Sea Level Bill Would Allow North Carolina to Stick Its Head in the Sand. US News, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/06/01/ sea-level-bill-would-allow-north-carolina-to-stick-its-head-in-the-sand>.

  10. YouTube Video David Burton offers one reason for alarmist predictions about N.C. sea level rise David Burton offers one reason for alarmist predictions about N.C. sea level rise. YouTube, n.d. Web. 21 Nov. 2012. <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxLHCXah-6o>.

  11. Maps of lands vulnerable to sea level rise: modeled elevations along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Office of Atmospheric Programs, US EPA, n.d. Web. 20 Nov. 2012. <http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr/18/c018p205>.

  12. ~1,000 sq mi of NC is under 1.5m Area of NC is 53,819sq mi  2% Maps of lands vulnerable to sea level rise: modeled elevations along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Office of Atmospheric Programs, US EPA, n.d. Web. 20 Nov. 2012. <http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr/18/c018p205>. North Carolina. Wikipedia, n.d. Web. 20 Nov. 2012. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ North_Carolina>.

  13. What was the voting record on HB 819? NC - HB 819. Vote Smart, n.d. Web. 21 Nov. 2012. <http://votesmart.org/bill/votes/ 40900#.UKzqUIfBfh4>.

  14. What did the governor do?

  15. So, are the sea levels rising? GMSL (mm) Global Mean Sea Level (mm) Year Sea Level Rise. CSIRO, n.d. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/index.html>.

  16. So, are (how are) the sea levels rising? 130 years 210 mm Sea Level Rise. CSIRO, n.d. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/index.html>.

  17. Research varies in the estimate of the rate of sea level Historical Tide Gauge Measurements. CU Sea Level Research Group, n.d. Web. 27 Nov. 2012. <http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/tide-gauge-sea-level>.

  18. So, are (how are) the sea levels rising? Let’s zoom in on recent data Sea Level Rise. CSIRO, n.d. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/index.html>.

  19. GMSL: 1993 - 2009 Looks pretty linear; let’s fit a linear model…

  20. Passes through (0,0) Slope = Passes through (h,k) Slope =

  21. 16 (2001,25) 45

  22. Passes through (0,0) Slope = Passes through (h,k) Slope = The linear regression line Passes through ) Slope minimizes

  23. Let’s find a least square linear model… Minimize sum error^2 By changing a

  24. Using this linear model, global mean sea level will rise… 2.8 mm per year 0.0028 m per year 0.028 m per 10 years 0.28 m per 100 year 1 m in about 357 years

  25. Back to data since 1880… Data seems to be concave up(compared to line) Sea Level Rise. CSIRO, n.d. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/index.html>.

  26. Passes through (0,) Asymptote y = Passes through () Asymptote y =

  27. Passes through (0,) Asymptote y = Passes through () Asymptote y =

  28. Minimize sum error^2 By changing a, b, k Chosen arbitrarily

  29. (1940, -83) -311+228 = -83 228 -311

  30. Using this linear model, global mean sea level will rise… 2.8 mm per year 0.0028 m per year 0.028 m per 10 years 0.28 m per 100 year 1 m in about 357 years Using this exponential model, global mean sea level will rise… 2.3 mm per year 0.0023 m per year 0.024 m per 10 years 0.32 m per 100 year 1 m in about 208 years

  31. Scientists warn US east coast over accelerated sea level rise. The Guardian, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jun/24/us-east-coast-sea-level-rise>.

  32. Scientists warn US east coast over accelerated sea level rise. The Guardian, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jun/24/us-east-coast-sea-level-rise>.

  33. East Coast Sea Level Rise Time Series Norfolk, VA Atlantic City, NJ Sandy Hook, NJ New York, NY Baltimore, MD Boston, MA Halifax, NS Portland, ME Current Global Mean Evidence of Sea Level Acceleration at U.S. and Canadian Tide Stations, Atlantic Coast, North America. Journal of Coastal Research, n.d. Web. 27 Nov. 2012. <http://www.bioone.org/doi/ full/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00102.1#i1551-5036-28-6-1437-f02>.

  34. East Coast Sea Level Rise Accelerating In 'Hotspot' Area, Report Warns. Huffington Post, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/25/ east-coast-sea-level-rise_n_1624134.html>.

  35. Sea Level Rise Google Map. FireTree.net, n.d. Web. 27 Nov. 2012. <http://flood.firetree.net/>.

  36. Sea Level Rise Google Map. FireTree.net, n.d. Web. 27 Nov. 2012. <http://flood.firetree.net/>.

  37. Sea Level Rise Google Map. FireTree.net, n.d. Web. 27 Nov. 2012. <http://flood.firetree.net/>.

  38. Sea Level Rise Google Map. FireTree.net, n.d. Web. 27 Nov. 2012. <http://flood.firetree.net/>.

  39. Sea Level Rise Google Map. FireTree.net, n.d. Web. 27 Nov. 2012. <http://flood.firetree.net/>.

  40. High TIDE AND Low TIDE In North Carolina, the difference between high and low tide levels hovers around three feet. SPRING TIDES AND NEAP TIDES The moon and sun pass the earth in different positions throughout the year. For this reason, the height of the local tides changes from time to time. The maximums are called spring tides, when the tidal range on a beach is the greatest. This maximum happens when the moon is either full or new. The minimum or neap tide occurs when the moon is in its first or third quarters. The spring tide at Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, is typically six feet and the neap tide is two feet. Tides. Coastal Care, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://coastalcare.org/educate/tides/>.

  41. Storm Surge Overview. National Hurricane Center, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ surge/>.

  42. Storm Surge Overview. National Hurricane Center, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ surge/>.

  43. Rebuilding NC 12: Saving a vital link or throwing money in the ocean? WRAL.com, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.wral.com/ rebuilding-nc-12-saving-a-vital-link-or-throwing-money-in-the-ocean-/11784177/>.

  44. Rebuilding NC 12: Saving a vital link or throwing money in the ocean? WRAL.com, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.wral.com/ rebuilding-nc-12-saving-a-vital-link-or-throwing-money-in-the-ocean-/11784177/>.

  45. Did Hurricane Sandy change opinions about climate change? Gallop Politics. Americans' Worries About Global Warming Up Slightly, n.d. Web. 30 Mar. 2012. <http://www.gallup.com/poll/153653/americans-worries-global-warming-slightly.aspx>.

  46. New study shows Sandy a climate game-changer. MNN, n.d. Web. 15 Nov. 2012. <http://www.mnn.com/ earth-matters/climate-weather/blogs/new-study-shows-sandy-a-climate-game-changer>.