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South African Economic Outlook Ramaphoria : Can it last?

South African Economic Outlook Ramaphoria : Can it last?. 11 September 2018 Economic Association of Namibia. Outline. ANC December 2017 Election February 2018 Palace Coup Ramaphoria Political Compromises SWOT Analysis Can it last?. ANC December 2017 Election.

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South African Economic Outlook Ramaphoria : Can it last?

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  1. South African Economic OutlookRamaphoria:Can itlast? 11 September 2018 Economic Association of Namibia

  2. Outline ANC December 2017 Election February 2018 Palace Coup Ramaphoria Political Compromises SWOT Analysis Can it last?

  3. ANC December 2017 Election Narrow win for Cyril Ramaphosa Half of the Top Six are Zuma allies ANC rife with factions ANC unity ahead of 2019 National Elections

  4. February 2018 Palace Coup Who was going to deliver the State of the Nation Address (SONA)? SONA delayed so that Ramaphosa could deliver it after Zuma resignation on Valentine’s Day Harking back to JFK 1961 inaugural speech, Ramaphosa uses “Send Me” as call to action for SA citizens

  5. “This Address should have been delivered last week, but was delayed so that we could properly manage issues of political transition. I wish to thank Honourable Members and the people of South Africa for their patience and forbearance,” he said in his opening remarks. “In celebrating the centenary of Nelson Mandela we are not merely honouring the past, we are building the future. We are at a moment in the history of our nation when the people, through their determination, have started to turn the country around. We can envisage the triumph over poverty, we can see the end of the battle against AIDS. Now is the time to lend a hand. Now is the time for each of us to say ‘send me’. Now is the time for all of us to work together, in honour of Nelson Mandela, to build a new, better South Africa for all.”

  6. Ramaphoria

  7. The rand was the best performing currency in the world against the US dollar at the beginning of year as it strengthened by more than a quarter (26%) from R14.57 per US dollar on 13 November 2017 to R11.56 on 16 February 2018. In the first six weeks of this year, foreigners bought a net R16.8 billion worth of South African equities compared with net sales of R22.1 billion in the same period last year.

  8. Political Compromises ANC voted with EFF to support a review of Expropriation without Compensation Many Zuma allies were retained in the March cabinet, even if they were shifted to minor ministries Pravin Gordhan intervened in Eskom wage negotiations resulting in 7.5% increase instead of zero increase Civil servants got above budgeted increases which prompted Moody’s warning on fiscal slippage

  9. SWOT analysis Strength: ANC got rid of Zuma and has instituted Zondo Commission into State Capture. Diversified economy and export destinations. Weakness: Lack of trust between government and business. Policy uncertainty remains. Opportunities: BRICS member. Brexit makes us a prime UK partner. Zimbabwe recovery. Weaknesses: Liquid rand market results in emerging market contagion. Moody’s may still downgrade SA after MTBPS. Trump does not like Africa.

  10. Can it last? Expropriation without compensation and Mining Charter key policy initiatives will determine Ramaphoria longevity External economic environment faces major downside risks with escalating trade wars and overvalued equity markets SA will largely have to look at domestic infrastructure build and efficient SOEs to grow in next few years

  11. Helmo Preuss +27 79 773 2458 Email: ecosahp@gmail.com Website: www.forecaster-ecosa.co.za https://twitter.com/helmopreuss Thank you

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