climate change and human population health past present future department of defence june 2013 n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Climate Change and Human Population Health: Past, Present, Future PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Climate Change and Human Population Health: Past, Present, Future

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 13

Climate Change and Human Population Health: Past, Present, Future - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 68 Views
  • Uploaded on

Climate Change and Human Population Health: Past, Present, Future Department of Defence, June 2013. Tony McMichael, AO Emeritus Professor (Population Health) National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University tony.mcmichael@anu.edu.au.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Climate Change and Human Population Health: Past, Present, Future' - lazaro


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
climate change and human population health past present future department of defence june 2013
Climate Change and Human Population Health: Past, Present, Future

Department of Defence, June 2013

Tony McMichael, AO

Emeritus Professor (Population Health)

National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health

The Australian National University

tony.mcmichael@anu.edu.au

slide2

Deaths Attributable to Climate Change: Year 2000

Estimated annual deaths attributable to climate change from: malnutrition (~80K), diarrhoea (~50K), malaria (~20K), flooding (~3K)

14 WHO statistical regions scaled by estimated annual mortality (selected causes, in 2000) due to change in climate during 1970-2000.

(Patz et al, 2007: based on McMichael, et al, 2004)

climate change health impact pathways
Climate Change: Health Impact Pathways

Physical systems

(river flow, vegetation, soils, ocean temp, etc.)

Economic/social impacts: infrastructure, economic productivity, jobs, coastal displacement, resource-related conflict/warfare

Biological &

ecological processes

Climate Change:

Impacts

Indirect (‘secondary’) impacts, ecologically-mediated: changes in food,water,mosquitoes

Direct (‘primary’) impacts (extreme weather, heatwaves, air pollution)

  • Human Health
  • Injuries/deaths; mental stress
  • Thermalstressimpacts

Indirect (‘tertiary’) health impacts – socially & politically mediated

  • Infectious diseases
  • Under-nutrition
  • Mentalstresses
  • Trauma/deaths
slide4

Normal Range

Dry

Wet

5-year running mean yield deviation

Spring Barley Yield (deviation, %)

Rainfall Index, April-June

Relationship between Rainfall Index (combines rainfall and temperature) in Spring (April-June) and Barley Yields in Czech Republic since 1940s.

Brazdil et al, 2008

slide5

CLIMATE CHANGE to 2050: MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS (due to temperature and soil moisture)

Poor Countries are Projected to Fare Worst

20

  • Not including climate-related:
  • Flood/storm/fire damage
  • Droughts – range, severity
  • Pests (climate-sensitive)
  • Infectious diseases (ditto)

36

80

64

Percentage change in yields to 2050

-50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100

UN Devt Prog, 2009

slide6

Climate Change: Diverse Influence Paths on Infectious Diseases

eg. dengue, malaria;

Ross River virus, Lyme disease

eg. nutrition-related immune function

Social-demographic influences

slide7

Dengue Fever: Estimated ‘receptive’ region for Ae. aegypti mosquito vector, under alternative climate-change scenarios for 2050

.

.

Darwin

.

Katherine

.

Cairns

.

.

Broome

Townsville

.

.

Port Hedland

.

Mackay

Risk region for medium

emissions scenario, 2050

.

.

Katherine

Rockhampton

.

Cairns

.

Carnarvon

.

Broome

Townsville

.

Port Hedland

Mackay

.

.

Current risk region for dengue transmission

Rockhampton

.

Darwin

.

Brisbane

.

Katherine

.

Cairns

.

.

Broome

Townsville

.

Port Hedland

.

Mackay

.

Risk region for high

emissions scenario, 2050

Rockhampton

Carnarvon

NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM/UnivOtago, 2003

climate change influences on health in australia
Climate Change Influences on Health in Australia

Already apparent: baseline risks amplified by underlying climate change

Uptrend in av annual no. of heat-days  deaths, hospitalisations

Increases in no./severity bushfires  injury/death, resp. hazard, mental health

Severe flooding (due to increased sea-surface temp, increased rainfall?)

Probable current health impacts: butnot yet clearly identified

Rising rates of some food-borne enteritis (diarrhoeal) diseases

Altered (urban) air quality: ozone formation, aeroallergens

Mental health impacts, esp. in some (drying) rural regions: e.g. MD Basin

Predicted future health impacts

More extreme weather events  trauma/deaths, infectious disease, depression

Water shortages, affecting food yields, domestic hygiene

Mosquito-borne infections – shifts in range and seasonality:

Dengue, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, Japanese encephalitis, etc.

Increased thermal stress at work, esp. in outdoor workers and under-ventilated factories: accidents/injuries, organ damage; reduced work capacity

slide9

Changes in Average Northern Hemisphere Temperature over the Past 11,000 Years

AJ McMichael, 2012)

Modelled range of projected global temperature rise to 2100 (vs.1990) = + 2-5oC

+4

+3

+2

+1

0

-1

-2

-3

Variations in NH Temp, oC (rel. to Holocene average)

Holocene

Holocene Climatic Optimum I, II

Roman Warm Period

Mediaeval Warm Period, Europe

Faster warming since 1975

Sahara dries

Drought & cooling in East Mediterranean region

Little Ice Age: Europe, China

Early agrarian societies begin to form: Egypt, Sumer, southern China

Post-glacial warming following Younger Dryas cooling, 12.8-11.6K BP

Acute cooling: Tambora eruption 1815

Acute cooling: 536 CE ‘Event’

11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

02 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Millennia BCE (1000s of yrs)

Centuries CE (100s of yrs)

BCE/CE

slide10

Europe’s coldest period, 1570-1660, during Little Ice Age Food yields down, grain prices tripled … conflict , war, displacement

Cold Period

1570-1660

European Temperature Variation

standardised units

Nth Hemi-sphere Temperature Variation

oC

Famine-years/decade x 2

Epidemic rate x 3

Adult height ↓1.5cm

Rate of Migrations, Europe

War Fatality Index, Europe

1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800

Zhang et al., PNAS, 2011

slide11

Temperature, Conflict, Warfare within China, 1000-1940:

Relationship to Fall of Dynasties

Five (grey) periods of cold in China

Northern (> 20oN)

Hemisphere

temperature

C

variations,

o

(

cf

1961

-

90 av.)

The ‘Little Ice Age’

1000

1200 1400 1600

1800 2000

Wars

No. of internal

Rebellions

wars (per

decade)

Population

size

N. Song S. Song Yuan Ming Qing

(millions)

1000

1200 1400 1600

1800 2000

Adapted from Zhang et al, 2009

slide12

Civil Conflicts, 1950-2004, in Countries Affected or Not/Little Affected by ENSO

Affected

(n= 93 countries)

(n= 82 countries)

Annual Civil Conflict

Rate

(% of countries

embroiled)

Probability of new civil conflicts breaking out in El Niño years is double that seen in cooler La Niña years

Weaker

Stronger

El Niño Index (NINO3: May-Dec average Sea-Surface Temperature)

Hsiang et al., Nature 2011