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System-Wide Modeling in Fast-Time Simulation: Current and Future Capabilities

This workshop highlights the modeling capabilities of system-wide tools in fast-time simulation for air traffic management. It discusses existing capabilities, identifies gaps, and explores the needs for future operations and technologies.

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System-Wide Modeling in Fast-Time Simulation: Current and Future Capabilities

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  1. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation FAA / EUROCONTROL Cooperative R&D Action Plan 9 “System Wide Modeling in Fast-time Simulation” Current and Future Capabilities 1st Annual Workshop – NAS-Wide Simulation in Support of NextGen Dec. 10th – George Mason University

  2. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • TABLE OF CONTENTS • Introduction • Research Objective • Approach • Scope • Findings • Questionnaire Sections • Existing Capabilities • Gaps in Capabilities • Conclusions • Needs • Industry Participation • Integration Issues

  3. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • INTRODUCTION • Action Plan 9 (AP9) – Air Traffic Modeling of Operational Concepts • Research Objectives: • Determine modeling capabilities of existing system wide tools • Determine the availability of capabilities required for future system wide concepts • Approach: • TIM: Madrid, Spain, Nov. 16-17, 2006 • Interviews with model developers and subject matter experts • Responses from 15 organizations and 28 subject matter experts • 18 fast-time system wide modeling tools • Document the research and the conclusions

  4. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • SCOPE • System wide is equivalent to: • Runway-to Runway operations (US) • Gate-to-Gate operations (Europe) • Focus • - System operations as opposed to economic, financial or political attributes of the ATM system, and • - System wide modeling capabilities that • Capture propagation of a problem throughout the system • Support modeling of future operations, technologies and concepts.

  5. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • INTERVIEW: QUESTIONNAIRE SECTIONS • General Modeling Information • Airspace • Flight Schedule & Trajectories • Separation – Tactical Control • Traffic Flow Management (TFM) • Airports • Aircraft • Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) • Environment • Infrastructure • Human Performance • Software – Architecture and Programming

  6. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • FINDINGS: EXISTING CAPABILITIES • General Modeling Information • Discrete event, continuous time, agent-based, and analytical tools • Stochastic processes or working toward stochastic elements • Capacity, delay, and efficiency primary focus • Airspace • Most considered sectors as resources others more detailed • Sector capacity typically modeled using MAP values • Flight Schedules and Trajectories • Traffic defined by: • schedules • filed flight plans • as-flown trajectories • great circle routes • 4D trajectories: pre-processing vs. run-time adjustments • Some considered uncertainty in 4D positions

  7. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • FINDINGS: EXISTING CAPABILITIES (Cont.) • Separation – Tactical Control (varied in models) • Conflict detection and resolution • Capacity-demand imbalances • Flight re-routing • Traffic Flow Management: • Departure Time Management (mostly European tools) • Ground Delay and Ground Stop Programs • In-trail restrictions, metering and sequencing (limited) • Re-routing around severe weather cells (limited) • Airports • High-level vs. detailed capabilities • Departure sequencing and delay • Aircraft • Varying levels of fidelity of aircraft performance characteristics modeling • Aircraft performance as a function of on-board equipage

  8. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • FINDINGS: EXISTING CAPABILITIES (Cont.) • Collaborative Decision Making • AOC’s/Pilots • Flight slot swapping (pre-processing) • Environmental Concerns • Only via post-processing • Infrastructure • Failure rates via impact on capacity limitations • Human Performance • - Controller workload: task allocation and time-on-task • Software – Architecture and Programming • Maturity of the tools • Validation and verification • Integration of new capabilities • Connectivity between tools

  9. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • FINDINGS: GAPS IN CAPABILITIES • Objective sector capacity evaluation as a function of: • Human performance • Traffic complexity • Separation standards • Weather • Ability to distinguish operational and procedural differences across • Domains and airspace segments (en route, terminal, approach/departure, etc.) • Different categories of flights (IFR vs. VFR, equipage based performance, etc.) • Different categories of airspace (PBA)

  10. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • FINDINGS: GAPS IN CAPABILITIES (Cont.) • Propagation of impacts from one restriction to another (including CDM) • Conflict detection and resolution • Capacity-demand imbalances (MAP’s, in-trail restrictions, LOA’s, etc.) • Flight re-routing (SUA’s, congestion, weather, etc.) • Propagation of impacts from one resource to another • Both from ground to air, and air to air resource • Supporting infrastructure and its requirements • System errors, update rates, failures and outages • Incorporation of stochastic processes and behaviors • Uncertainty in aircraft 4D position • Non-compliance with the expected user behavior (e.g. 4D contract and TMI) • Future concepts of interest (examples) • Dynamic Sectorization • Multi Sector Planner • Trajectory Based Operations

  11. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • FINDINGS:GAPS IN CAPABILITIES (Cont.) • Standardized performance measures and indicators to facilitate repeatability and cross-comparison of the outcomes • Optimization capabilities, including both individual trajectory and flow or system wide optimized solutions • Environmental considerations, restrictions, and trade-offs • Other considerations • Sensitivity analysis • Validation and verification • Difficulty of integration of new capabilities and disconnectivity between tools

  12. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS • Providing Insights vs. Predictions of Future • Required level of detail • Flexibility • Industry Participation Needed • Aircraft performance chars. (manufacturers, air carriers, etc.) • 4D trajectory building • Fuel burn • CDM • Airline goals • Re-routing negotiations

  13. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • CONCLUSIONS • Balance between too much and too little detail is important • Flexibility is crucial • Desired level of fidelity as a function of modeling objective • Do not focus on generating outcomes and data-drilling capabilities • Focus on providing novel analytical capabilities while ensuring consistency • Plug-and-play capabilities • Flexible modeling environment • Harmonious modeling components

  14. ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation • Contact Information • Albert Schwartz, FAA • albert.schwartz@faa.gov

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