Overview of Climate Change Science and Policy National Tribal Forum on Air Quality April 18, 2007

1. Overview of Climate Change Science and Policy National Tribal Forum on Air Quality April 18, 2007 Rona Birnbaum Climate Change Division Office of Atmospheric Programs U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

2. Presentation Outline 1. State of Climate Change Science 2. State of U.S. Climate Change Policy 3. EPA Efforts, Observations from Tribes and Opportunities for Collaboration

3. Release of Key International Climate Change StudiesIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Publication Schedule

4. * A1FI: 958ppm * A2: 836ppm Emission Scenarios B1: 540ppm * Climate Science: CO2 & CH4 Concentrations • Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in 2005 far exceeded the natural range over the last 650,000 years. Source: IPCC WGI AR4, 2007.

5. IPCC WGI: Science Overview "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level"- IPCC WGI Summary for Policymakers, 2007 • Increased temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations • It is likely to be in the range of 2 to 4.5ºC with a best estimate of about 3ºC, and it is very unlikely to be less than 1.5ºC. • Changes in precipitation • Increases in amount of precipitation are very likely in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical regions. • Sea level rise • Likely to rise .18 - .59m by 2100 (does not include increases ice discharge from ice sheets that could add .1 or .2m).

6. Observed Rising Global Temperatures “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal…” “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid 20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.” Global average warming in the past century is 0.76°C (1.37°F). The rate of warming over the past 50 years is nearly twice the 100-year average. Warmest years over last century: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 Heat waves have become more frequent; cold days have become less frequent. Source: IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers of Working Group I. “Very likely” is greater than 90% chance of occurrence.

7. A mix of adaptation and mitigation can delay, reduce and avoid potential impacts due to climate change. Future Changes in Climate:Risks & Implications for Adaptation “Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.”-IPCC, 2007 • IPCC global temperature projections • by 2100 relative to 1990: • Best estimate = 1.8 to 4.0ºC (3.2 to 7.2ºF) • - Likely range = 1.1 to 6.4ºC (2.0 to 11.5ºF) Under the IPCC “business-as-usual” emission scenario, warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries beyond 2100.

8. Climate Changes Temperature Sea Level Rise Precipitation Health Impacts Ecosystems • Weather-related deaths • Infectious diseases • Air quality - respiratory • illnesses • Loss of habitat and • diversity • Species range shifts • Ecosystem services Forest Impacts Water Resources • Changes in precipitation, • water quality, and • water supply • Geographic range • Health, composition, and • productivity Coastal Areas Agriculture • Crop yields • Irrigation demand • Pest management • Erosion and inundation • of coastal lands • Costs of protecting • vulnerable lands Climate Science: Impacts

9. IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation, & VulnerabilityKey Findings (1) • More confident assessment of the relationship between observed warming and observed changes – “…it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems”. • Greater confidence in ability to systematically estimate magnitude of impacts at different ranges of increases in global average temperature. • “Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate, and sea levels are very likely to change.” • “Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.” • “Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway.”

10. IPCC Working Group II Findings (2) • The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire), and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution). ** • Ecosystem structure and function, species’ ecological interactions, and species’ geographic ranges will experience major changes. ** • Biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services (e.g., water and food supply) likely will be negatively impacted. ** Key: The following symbols are used to express the degree of confidence in a statement: *** Very high confidence At least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct ** High confidence About an 8 out of 10 chance * Medium confidence About a 5 out of 10 chance Source: IPCC AR 4 WGII SPM

11. IPCC Working Group II Findings (3) • The warming of lakes and rivers in many regions will have effects on their thermal structure and water quality.** • The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those: • in coastal and river flood plains • with economies are closely linked with climate- • sensitive resources • in areas prone to extreme weather events. ** Source: IPCC AR4 WGII SPM, 2007

12. IPCC Working Group II Findings (4)Health Impacts • The health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive capacity, will be affected due to: • heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts • higher concentrations of ground level ozone related to climate change • altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors. ** • Factors that directly shape the health of populations such as education, health care, public health prevention and infrastructure and economic development will be critically important. *** Sources: IPCC AR4 WGII SPM, 2007

13. IPCC Working Group II Findings (5)Impacts in North America • Moderate climate change in the early decades of the century is projected to increase aggregate yields of rainfed agriculture by 5-20%, but with important variability among regions. • Major challenges are projected for crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range or depend on highly utilized water resources. ** • Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack, more winter flooding, and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources. ***

14. IPCC Working Group II Findings (6)Impacts upon Polar Regions • Impacts upon Polar Regions include • changes in natural ecosystems • reductions in the thickness and extent of glaciers, ice sheets and permafrost, increased coastal erosion • Despite the resilience shown historically by Arctic indigenous communities, some traditional ways of life are being threatened and substantial investments are needed to adapt or re-locate physical structures and communities. **

15. Tribal Observations of Climate Change Impacts • Prolonged droughts or excessive rainfall and other weather shifts • Diminishing and disappearing sources of fresh water • Threats to traditional knowledge and culture due to shifts and disruptions to the habitat of culturally important species • Loss of economically important species • Increased social and cultural pressures • Increased costs for clean water supplies • Increased defense of water rights • Impacts upon the health of the elderly Source: Climate Change and Pacific Rim Indigenous Nations from the Northwest Indian Applied Research Institute (Oct 2006)

16. Elements of U.S. Climate Change Policy • Slowing the growth of emissions • Reduce GHG emissions intensity (tons/$GDP) by 18% between 2002 and 2012 • Employ voluntary programs: ENERGY STAR, Methane to Markets, SmartWay Transport, etc. • Advancing climate science and technology • Annual investment of over $5 billion in climate change research and technology • Focus on long-term Research and Development • Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) • Improving fuel economy and expanding alternative fuel use • Reduce gasoline use by 20% over the next 10 years • Alternative Fuel Standard: requires 36 billion gallons of renewable and alternative fuels in 2017 • Reformed CAFE for cars; extending light truck rule to produce 8.5 billion gallons in fuel savings • Enhancing international cooperation • Reaffirm U.S. commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) • Emphasize U.S. commitment to mutual goals of sustainable development and economic growth

17. U.S. Policy: GHG Intensityand EPA’s Role • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions and contribute significantly to the Administration’s goal of 18% reduction in GHG intensity by 2012 • Challenge businesses to reduce their emissions through voluntary partnerships • Provide near-term solutions while other agencies invest in long-term R&D programs such as hydrogen and fuel cells • Save consumers money on utility bills, increase system reliability, and reduce energy costs in natural gas and electricity markets

18. EPA’s Voluntary Climate Change Programs

19. U.S. Policy: Science • U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) responsible for coordinating research across multiple agencies • CCSP Strategic Plan released in 2003: • Goal 1: Knowledge of past and present climate • Goal 2: Quantifying forces of climate change • Goal 3: Reducing uncertainty of climate projections • Goal 4: Understanding sensitivity of natural/human systems • Goal 5: Using knowledge to manage risks/opportunities • CCSP preparing 21 "Synthesis and Assessment Products" on key climate science issues:

20. U.S. Policy: Technology • Annual investment of more than $5 billion in climate change research, technology, and tax incentives • U.S. Climate Change Technology Program – 6 Working Groups: • Reduce emissions from energy use • Reduce emissions from energy supply • Capture/sequester CO2 • Reduce emissions of non-CO2GHGs • Improve capabilities to measure and monitor GHG emissions • Bolster contributions of basic science to technology development

21. Congressional Activity • Many climate-related bills introduced • 6 cap-and-trade bills • 10 transportation/energy security bills • 8 other climate/energy bills • Hearings on climate issues • Senate: EPW, Commerce, Energy and Finance • House: Government Reform, Energy and Commerce, Science, Ways and Means Much more activity expected: • More hearings planned • Stakeholders beginning to weigh in on bills (e.g. companies and trade associations) • Ambitious goals, but a long way to go • Currently, no national or international consensus on climate change solutions

22. Overview of EPA Climate Programs Office of Atmospheric Programs (OAP) - Climate Change Division: Dina Kruger - Climate Protection Partnerships Division: Kathleen Hogan Office of Transportation & Air Quality (OTAQ) - Transportation & Climate Division: Sarah Dunham Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards (OAQPS) - Health & Environmental Impacts Division: Lydia Wegman Office of Research and Development (ORD) - Global Change Research Program: Joel Scheraga

23. Overview of EPA Climate Change Division Key Activities • GHG Inventory • Domestic and International Climate Change Policy • Economic Analysis • Climate Change Impact Economic Analysis • Non-CO2 Partnership Programs • Geological Sequestration (with Office of Water) • Science, Impacts, Adaptation Communication • Climate Change Outreach

24. Tribal Recommendations toTribes Regarding Climate Change • Secure sources of water for drought-impacted regions • Secure sources of food stocks for disaster or emergency conditions • Determine how culturally important plant and animal species can adapt • Develop relationships with tribes and neighboring governments regarding • agricultural production capabilities • land use planning • emergency planning for weather related disasters • renewable energy policies, and • carbon emission reduction and control measures. Sources: Climate Change and Pacific Rim Indigenous Nations from the Northwest Indian Applied Research Institute (Oct 2006) and participants at the National Wildlife Federation’s Tribal Climate Conference (Dec 2006)

25. Next Steps for Consideration and Potential Collaboration • Identify and communicate the climate change impacts that tribes experience by gathering information and producing stories from a grassroots, traditional perspective • Help tribes build the awareness and capacity to assess, monitor, and mitigate the impacts of climate change • Education and outreach • Monitoring impacts • Devising and implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies

26. Next Steps for Considerationand Potential Collaboration • Promoting dialogues and establishing collaborative partnerships and coalitions within Indian Country and across all relevant sectors. • Participate in conferences to raise awareness and create networking opportunities

27. CCD Contacts Dina Kruger Director, Climate Change Division Rona Birnbaum Chief, Climate Science and Impacts Branch birnbaum.rona@epa.gov Kevin Rosseel Communications Director, Climate Change Division rosseel.kevin@epa.gov Check out the EPA Web Site www.epa.gov/climatechange Featuring: GHG emissions calculator and information on what you can do at home, on the road, at school, etc.