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So-Called Livability: Threat to the Quality of Life & the Economy. American Dream Conference Orlando Wendell Cox 24 September 2010. Chicago. Moscow. Washington’s So-Called Livability Agenda. Bangkok. The Long Anti-Suburban Campaign ANTI-MOBILITY, ANTI-AFFLUENCE. Levittown, NY.

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  1. So-Called Livability: Threat to the Quality of Life & the Economy American Dream Conference Orlando Wendell Cox 24 September 2010 Chicago

  2. Moscow

  3. Washington’s So-Called Livability Agenda

  4. Bangkok

  5. The Long Anti-Suburban Campaign ANTI-MOBILITY, ANTI-AFFLUENCE Levittown, NY

  6. So-Called Livability in AustraliaOUTER SUBURBS Perth

  7. Miami’s Empty Condos The Condominium Bust CENTRAL CITY MARKET IS WEAK

  8. The Latest Justification GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS Southern Greenland

  9. So-Called Livability: Expensive Legacy

  10. Yet Smart Growth Advocates AgreeONLY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH IT INCREASES COSTS

  11. Prescriptive Land Use Regulation & The International Financial Crisis Smart Growth Triggers Financial Crisis CAUSED OR INTENSIFIED THE PANIC OF 2008 1. More liberal lending practices in the United States 2. Housing demand increases as a result 3(a). PRESCRIPTIVE MARKETS Huge increases: prices and mortgage exposures 4(a) RESPONSIVE MARKETS Small increases: prices and mortgage exposures 3(b). Overwhelming share of default losses (85%) 4(b) Small share of default losses (15%) 5. Large defaults losses lead to United States mortgage “meltdown” 6. US mortgage meltdown triggers international financial crisis

  12. So-Called Livability BROOKINGS INSTITUTION OTHER (TRADITIONAL) X X SO-CALLED LIVABILTIY (SMART GROWTH) SO-CALLED LIVABILTIY (SMART GROWTH)

  13. Housing Affordability Since 1950 MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: MEDIAN MULTIPLE 1950 – 1970: From Census Bureau 1980-2008: From Harvard University 2009: From Demographia Annual Data Begins at 1980  Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income

  14. Ground Zero Markets25% LOSS/$100,000 LOSS TO CRASH San Francisco

  15. Gross House Values SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS Trillions

  16. What if No Smart Growth? SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS Trillions

  17. Intensity of Losses SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS Trillions

  18. Average House Prices: Actual SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS

  19. House Prices: What if No Smart Growth SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS

  20. Intensity of Losses per House SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS

  21. Texas & California House Prices 1980-2009: MEDIAN MULTIPLE

  22. Housing Affordability: 2010 COMPARING SAN DIEGO AND DALLAS-FORT WORTH

  23. The Difference is Not Construction Costs SAN DIEGO V. DALLAS-FORT WORTH

  24. House Prices & Household Incomes: 2009 SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS

  25. Monthly Rent: % of Annual Income: 2008 SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS

  26. Minority Home Ownership Trails GAP UNLIKELY TO NARROW WITH SMART GROWTH

  27. Net Domestic Migration: 2000-2009 SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS

  28. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Southern Greenland

  29. Cost Effectiveness is CrucialUN IPCC MAXIMUM RANGE PER METRIC TON Shenyang, China $20 $50 Above $50 is wasteful Detracts from efforts to reduce GHGs & unnecessarily reduces employment & economic growth Market Less than $15 McKinsey Average $17

  30. Transit/Land Use Strategies Expensive COST PER TON REMOVED: SAN FRANCISCO Source: 2035 Plan

  31. Congestion & Excess GHG Emissions 90 URBAN AREAS: CHANGE 1982-2007

  32. Emissions Projections BEFORE & AFTER NEW MILEAGE STANDARDS

  33. GHG Emissions Projections TECHNOLOGY VS. PORTLAND STRATEGIES -5% -50%

  34. European Parliament MPG Requirement EQUIVALENT 65 MPG BY 2020, 90 MPG LATER? VW 235MPG Alternative Fuels Such as Cellulosic Ethanol (NRDC) Paris: 12 Lane Freeway

  35. Ayres Rock Australia Core Ring 1 Ring 2 Outer GHG Emissions per Capita Australian Urban Areas Inconvenient Research HIGH DENSITY THE ANSWER TO EVERY QUESTION?

  36. Zero Emission House: Japan 2,100 SQUARE FEET: DETACHED http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/data/nBackIssue20080617_01.html

  37. NAS Report: Land Use & Transit CHANGE IN DRVING 2000-2030

  38. So-Called Livability, Jobs & the Economy Shenyang (Manchuria)

  39. Density & Traffic Volumes: International VEHICLE HOURS PER SQUARE MILE Hong Kong

  40. Density Increases Health RiskHIGHER TRAFFIC CONCENTRATION …exposure to traffic-related air pollutants was more highly related to mortality than were city-wide background levels.  For example, those who lived near a major road were more likely to die of a cardiovascular event. • American Heart Association www.americanheart.org/presenter.jhtml?identifier=4419

  41. Land Regulations Stunt Economic Growth US FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD RESEARCH 20% less job growth than expected in metropolitan areas with strongest land use regulation -Raven Saks US Federal Reserve Board Philadelphia

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