RECCWEX Regional Climate Change and Extremes. Outline. This Status Quo Report of the Flagship will contain information regarding: Background & Scientific Questions Contribuion to the overall research agenda of the RD/PIK Involved Resources Main Results & Impacts Outlook. Persons.
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This Status Quo Report of the Flagship will contain information regarding:
Senior scientists – Postdocs:
Fritz Gerstengarbe, Fred Hattermann, Zbyszek Kundzewicz, Peter Werner, Valentina Krysanova, Jan Volkholz, Martin Kücken, Hermann Österle, Stefan Liersch, Hagen Koch, Frank Wechsung
Shaochun Huang, Matthias Büchner, Julia Lutz, Sebastian Schubert, Christopher Menz, Julia Tecklenburg, Judith Stagl, Tobias Vetter, Samuel Fournet, Friedemann Lembke
Technical staff: Volker Hauffe
Comprehensive investigations of climate change impacts on hydro-climatic extremes (droughts, floods, storms …) are just starting (and very challenging) and are surely a topic for PIK (socio-economical impact, public interest)
Land use change
CCLM/ STAR (and other)
Regional climate model
1) Water resources and extremes
2) Change in vegetation dynamics (crop production)
Water resources management
Agriculture and forestry
Floods, droughts, storms …
Huang S, Hattermann FF, Krysanova V, Bronstert A (2011) Projections for climate change affected river flood conditions in Germany by combining three different RCMs with a regional hydrological model. Submitted to Climatic Change.
Average flood damages per river reach and scenario period (considered are private houses and small enterprises). Projection of floods: hydrological model SWIM driven by regional climate models REMO and CCLM (in total 7 climate realizations). Damage functions provided by the German Insurance Association (GDV). Average flood damages 1961-2000 = 100%.
First German wide estimation of flood related losses under climate change.
+ ~3.02. Flood related damages in Germany per period
Hattermann FF, Huang S, Burghoff O, Willems W, Österle H, Büchner M, Kundzewisz ZW (2011) Modeling flood damages under climate change – a case study for Germany [Resutls of the GDV insurance project]. Submitted to Natural Hazards.
Projection of flood related damages on private houses and small enterprises: SWIM driven by the regional climate models REMO and CCLM (7 climate realizations in total). Damage functions provided by the German Insurance Association (GDV). 500 Million Euro is the observed and simulated average in the reference period 1961-2000
Regional increase of storm damages
"The damage development in storm/hail events with regard to climate change in Germany"F.-W. Gerstengarbe, P.C. Werner, H. Österle et al.
A1B - Summer
2041/70 – 1984/2008
First German wide estimation of storm related losses under climate change.
3 °4. Selected Results – Drougths in Sub-Saharan Africa – Niger basin
Vulnerability of agricultural production in the Inner Niger Delta to water resources management under climate variability and change Stefan Liersch, Jan Cools, Bakary Kone, Mori Diallo, Hagen Koch, Samuel Fournet, Fred Hattermann To be submitted to Environmental Science and Policy