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Caribbean Coastal Scenarios

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Caribbean Coastal Scenarios

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    1. Caribbean Coastal Scenarios Florida International University The Nature Conservancy Universidad Autónoma de Santo Domingo Universidad de la Habana Universidad de Puerto Rico University of the West Indies Université de Quisqueya

    2. Outline of presentation Overview of coastal problems linked to inland pollution in the Caribbean islands Project Objectives Partners and collaborators The work accomplished and ahead

    3. Islands of interest

    6. Purpose of the Caribbean Coastal Scenarios Project To support sustainable development and coastal resource conservation in the Greater Antilles by improving understanding (through research) of the relationships between island-scale inland development and coastal ecosystems (freshwater and pollution inputs) stimulating and supporting national and regional dialogues on the consequences of current and plausible future development and management activities (awareness building and institutional/ stakeholder cooperation) building capacity to continue analytical and cooperative approaches into the future (post-CCS)

    7. Scope and Goals of the Caribbean Coastal Scenarios Project National Assessments (Why national?... because they will have the greatest impact) Stakeholder dialogues to formulate plausible scenarios for future development and management (including conservation and remediation measures) [using best available data] Research to improve understanding of processes and potential impacts of future development and global change scenarios [using credible modeling approach] Awareness building among governmental and non-governmental organizations and the general public. [through diverse outreach activities] Capacity building in modeling and scenario building. [through formal degrees and short courses]

    8. Caribbean Coastal Scenarios Core Science Objectives Determine spatial and temporal variability in climate across the region. Determine geographic and demographic characteristics of catchments (topography, land cover, geology, soils, land management techniques, population, roads and infrastructure, urban systems, etc.). Consider present and future trends in the nature and distribution of dynamic characteristics (e.g. land cover, management techniques, population, infrastructure, urban systems.).

    9. Caribbean Coastal Scenarios Core Science Objectives (cont.) Simulate seasonal and inter-annual fluxes of fresh water, sediments, and dissolved loads to coastal zones as a function of climate and catchment characteristics.

    11. Scenario Building a la IPCC A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent, and plausible description of a possible future state of the world (IPCC 1994) Types of scenarios include: Socioeconomic scenarios Land-use scenarios Climate scenarios Sea-level rise scenarios Scenarios are compared against a baseline and are informed by model projections and forecasts.

    12. Scenarios may be used for: Illustrating environmental change Communicating consequences of change Strategic planning Guiding policy making Methodological purposes

    14. Implementing Partners’ Roles and Responsibilities Universities research and capacity-building Government inter-agency coordination, stakeholder engagement, and scenario building The Nature Conservancy Regional coordination of research, dialogue and outreach. JOINT Data management and outreach.

    15. Accomplished activities Launching CCS meeting in Miami, FL , Jan. 2006 Objectives were Develop a shared understanding of the purpose, context, scope, and goals of CCS Identify strategy of engagement with collaborators at different levels Identify data types, sources and database development and management system Formulate a plan and schedule

    16. Accomplished activities cont. Hydrometrological data Sources identified, partially collected and analyzed Model is selected and preliminary set-up is undergoing Project web page is created

    17. The work ahead Data Respective island data needs to be further collected Data and modeling teams meeting Training on model running, calibration and verification Graduate students training Model simulation output presentation Scenarios development and assessment Stakeholders and policy makers involvement workshop

    18. Thank you

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