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Multi-Hazard Loss Estimations Using Socioeconomic Data

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## Multi-Hazard Loss Estimations Using Socioeconomic Data

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**J.R. Holliday* J.B. Rundle**University of California, Davis Multi-Hazard Loss Estimations Using Socioeconomic Data Tuesday Oct 29**Tuesday Oct 29**Motivation Seismic hazard “understood” Seismic risk analysis possible • HAZUS-MH (FEMA) • ST-RISK (Risk Engineering, Inc) But not for the general population**Tuesday Oct 29**Motivation Seismic hazard “understood” Seismic risk analysis possible • HAZUS-MH (FEMA) • ST-RISK (Risk Engineering, Inc) But not for the general population**Tuesday Oct 29**Motivation Seismic hazard “understood” Seismic risk analysis possible • HAZUS-MH (FEMA) • ST-RISK (Risk Engineering, Inc) But not for the general population**Tuesday Oct 29**Motivation Seismic hazard “understood” Seismic risk analysis possible • HAZUS-MH (FEMA) • ST-RISK (Risk Engineering, Inc) But not for the general population**Tuesday Oct 29**Motivation Seismic hazard “understood” Seismic risk analysis possible • HAZUS-MH (FEMA) • ST-RISK (Risk Engineering, Inc) But not for the general population**Tuesday Oct 29**Motivation Seismic hazard “understood” Seismic risk analysis possible • HAZUS-MH (FEMA) • ST-RISK (Risk Engineering, Inc) But not for the general population**Tuesday Oct 29**Motivation**Tuesday Oct 29**Earthquake Forecasts • USA: USGS • Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) • “24-Hour Aftershock Forecast Map” • 2009 Earthquake Probability Mapping • http://www.openhazards.com/ • World: CSEP • Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) • Beyond RELM • http://www.openhazards.com/**Tuesday Oct 29**Earthquake Forecasts • USA: USGS • Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) • “24-Hour Aftershock Forecast Map” • 2009 Earthquake Probability Mapping • http://www.openhazards.com/ • World: CSEP • Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) • Beyond RELM • http://www.openhazards.com/**Tuesday Oct 29**Earthquake Forecasts • USA: USGS • Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) • “24-Hour Aftershock Forecast Map” • 2009 Earthquake Probability Mapping • http://www.openhazards.com/ • World: CSEP • Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) • Beyond RELM • http://www.openhazards.com/**Tuesday Oct 29**Earthquake Forecasts • USA: USGS • Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) • “24-Hour Aftershock Forecast Map” • 2009 Earthquake Probability Mapping • http://www.openhazards.com/ • World: CSEP • Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) • Beyond RELM • http://www.openhazards.com/**Tuesday Oct 29**Earthquake Forecasts • USA: USGS • Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) • “24-Hour Aftershock Forecast Map” • 2009 Earthquake Probability Mapping • http://www.openhazards.com/ • World: CSEP • Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) • Beyond RELM • http://www.openhazards.com/**Tuesday Oct 29**Ground Shaking • Full propagation methods • OpenSHA • CyberShake • Simple propagation approximations**Tuesday Oct 29**Ground Shaking • Full propagation methods • OpenSHA • CyberShake • Simple propagation approximations**Tuesday Oct 29**Ground Shaking • Full propagation methods • OpenSHA • CyberShake • Simple propagation approximations**Tuesday Oct 29**Ground Shaking • Full propagation methods • OpenSHA • CyberShake • Simple propagation approximations**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking • What’s necessary? • Source location • Target location • Magnitude • Possible enhancements • Soil classification • Basin effects**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking • What’s necessary? • Source location • Target location • Magnitude • Possible enhancements • Soil classification • Basin effects**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking • What’s necessary? • Source location • Target location • Magnitude • Possible enhancements • Soil classification • Basin effects**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking • What’s necessary? • Source location • Target location • Magnitude • Possible enhancements • Soil classification • Basin effects**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking • What’s necessary? • Source location • Target location • Magnitude • Possible enhancements • Soil classification • Basin effects**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking (cont) • Focus on PGA only • Following Cua (2005) • Parameterize PGA(r) with log polynomial • Fit historic data (using shakemap.org) • Estimate variance/uncertainty • Test against global data • Results are surprisingly good!**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking (cont) • Focus on PGA only • Following Cua (2005) • Parameterize PGA(r) with log polynomial • Fit historic data (using shakemap.org) • Estimate variance/uncertainty • Test against global data • Results are surprisingly good!**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking (cont) • Focus on PGA only • Following Cua (2005) • Parameterize PGA(r) with log polynomial • Fit historic data (using shakemap.org) • Estimate variance/uncertainty • Test against global data • Results are surprisingly good!**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking (cont) • Focus on PGA only • Following Cua (2005) • Parameterize PGA(r) with 4th order polynomial • Fit historic data (using shakemap.org) • Estimate variance/uncertainty • Test against global data • Results are surprisingly good!**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking (cont) • Focus on PGA only • Following Cua (2005) • Parameterize PGA(r) with log polynomial • Fit historic data (using shakemap.org) • Estimate variance/uncertainty • Test against global data • Results are surprisingly good!**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking (cont) • Focus on PGA only • Following Cua (2005) • Parameterize PGA(r) with 4th order polynomial • Fit historic data (using shakemap.org) • Estimate variance/uncertainty • Test against global data • Results are surprisingly good!**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking (cont) • Focus on PGA only • Following Cua (2005) • Parameterize PGA(r) with log polynomial • Fit historic data (using shakemap.org) • Estimate variance/uncertainty • Test against global data • Results are surprisingly good!**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking (cont) • Focus on PGA only • Following Cua (2005) • Parameterize PGA(r) with log polynomial • Fit historic data (using shakemap.org) • Estimate variance/uncertainty • Test against global data • Results are surprisingly good!**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking (cont) • Focus on PGA only • Following Cua (2005) • Parameterize PGA(r) with log polynomial • Fit historic data (using shakemap.org) • Estimate variance/uncertainty • Test against global data • Results are surprisingly good!**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking (cont) • Focus on PGA only • Following Cua (2005) • Parameterize PGA(r) with log polynomial • Fit historic data (using shakemap.org) • Estimate variance/uncertainty • Test against global data • Results are surprisingly good!**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking (cont) • Focus on PGA only • Following Cua (2005) • Parameterize PGA(r) with log polynomial • Fit historic data (using shakemap.org) • Estimate variance/uncertainty • Test against global data • Results are surprisingly good!**Tuesday Oct 29**Simple Ground Shaking (cont) • Focus on PGA only • Following Cua (2005) • Parameterize PGA(r) with log polynomial • Fit historic data (using shakemap.org) • Estimate variance/uncertainty • Test against global data • Results are surprisingly good!**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response • Given PGA, how much damage will occur? • How do we describe the building? Building frame Wall type Floor plan Square footage Number of levels Chimney Attached garage Wall anchors Foundation type Year of construction • Which of these are necessary?**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response • Given PGA, how much damage will occur? • How do we describe the building? Building frame Wall type Floor plan Square footage Number of levels Chimney Attached garage Wall anchors Foundation type Year of construction • Which of these are necessary?**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response • Given PGA, how much damage will occur? • How do we describe the building? Building frame Wall type Floor plan Square footage Number of levels Chimney Attached garage Wall anchors Foundation type Year of construction • Which of these are necessary?**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response • Given PGA, how much damage will occur? • How do we describe the building? Building frame Wall type Floor plan Square footage Number of levels Chimney Attached garage Wall anchors Foundation type Year of construction • Which of these are necessary?**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response • Given PGA, how much damage will occur? • How do we describe the building? Building frame Wall type Floor plan Square footage Number of levels Chimney Attached garage Wall anchors Foundation type Year of construction • Which of these are necessary?**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response • Given PGA, how much damage will occur? • How do we describe the building? Building frame Wall type Floor plan Square footage Number of levels Chimney Attached garage Wall anchors Foundation type Year of construction • Which of these are necessary?**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response (cont) • Simple Method • Graf and Lee (Earthquake Spectra, 2009) • Inputs • PGA • Construction Framing • Output • Fraction of building damaged • Easy to “enhance”**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response (cont) • Simple Method • Graf and Lee (Earthquake Spectra, 2009) • Inputs • PGA • Construction Framing • Output • Fraction of building damaged • Easy to “enhance”**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response (cont) • Simple Method • Graf and Lee (Earthquake Spectra, 2009) • Inputs • PGA • Construction Framing • Output • Fraction of building damaged • Easy to “enhance”**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response (cont) • Simple Method • Graf and Lee (Earthquake Spectra, 2009) • Inputs • PGA • Construction Framing • Output • Fraction of building damaged • Easy to “enhance”**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response (cont) • Simple Method • Graf and Lee (Earthquake Spectra, 2009) • Inputs • PGA • Construction Framing • Output • Fraction of building damaged • Easy to “enhance”**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response (cont) • Simple Method • Graf and Lee (Earthquake Spectra, 2009) • Inputs • PGA • Construction Framing • Output • Fraction of building damaged • Easy to “enhance”**Tuesday Oct 29**Building Response (cont) • Simple Method • Graf and Lee (Earthquake Spectra, 2009) • Inputs • PGA • Construction Framing • Output • Fraction of building damaged • Easy to “enhance”**Tuesday Oct 29**Putting It All Together • Create an earthquake forecast • Using the forecast as a density function, convolve a ground-shaking estimation with all possible earthquake sources • Create PGA Exceedance curves for all locations • Use the exceedance curves as inputs to damage calculations.**Tuesday Oct 29**Putting It All Together • Create an earthquake forecast • Using the forecast as a density function, convolve a ground-shaking estimation with all possible earthquake sources • Create PGA Exceedance curves for all locations • Use the exceedance curves as inputs to damage calculations.**Tuesday Oct 29**Putting It All Together • Create an earthquake forecast • Using the forecast as a density function, convolve a ground-shaking estimation with all possible earthquake sources • Create PGA Exceedance curves for all locations • Use the exceedance curves as inputs to damage calculations.