Concentrating Solar Power APS Forum March 1-2, 2008

1. Concentrating Solar PowerAPS ForumMarch 1-2, 2008 Mark Mehos National Renewable Energy Laboratory www.nrel.gov/csp

2. Discussion • DOE Laboratory and CSP Technology Overview • Solar Resource Potential in the Southwest U.S. • U.S. and International Project Development Current Projects • Cost Targets and Market Penetration Analysis

3. CSP Technologies and Market Sectors • CSP w/ Storage (Dispatchable) • Parabolic Trough • Central Receiver • Linear Fresnel • CSP w/o Storage (Non-Dispatchable) • Dish/Engine • Concentrating PV • CSP w/ Storage (Dispatchable) • CSP w/o Storage (Non-Dispatchable)

4. Up to 250MW plants (or multiple plants in power parks) for peaking and bulk power Moderate solar-to-electric efficiency Thermal storage offers load following and capacity factors up to 70% Concentrating Solar Power:Dispatchable Power Parabolic Troughs: Commercial, utility-scale deployments Central Receiver: Pre-commercial, pilot-scale deployments

5. Storage provides higher value because power production can match utility needs lower costs because storage is cheaper than incremental turbine costs Value of Dispatchable Power?Meeting Utility Power Demands Hourly Load Solar Resource Generation w/ Thermal Storage

6. Operating Central Station Systems • The Solar Energy Generating Systems (SEGS) at Kramer Junction, CA (SEGS III-VII) • Five 30MW hybrid trough plants for a total of 150MW Capacity • Commissioned 1986-1988 • Performance has increased with time • Four additional SEGS plants located in two locations (Daggett, Harper Lake) for combined total of nine plants and 354 MW capacity

7. Parabolic Trough Power Plant with Thermal Storage 2-Tank Molten-Salt Thermal Storage Hot Tank HX Cold Tank

8. Modular (3-25kW) High solar-to-electric efficiency Dish/Stirling: Pre-commercial, pilot-scale deployments Concentrating Solar Power:Non-Dispatchable Central Station/Distributed Power Concentrating PV: Pre-commercial, pilot-scale deployments

9. 6-Dish Prototypes - Sandia

10. Discussion • DOE Laboratory and CSP Technology Overview • Solar Resource Potential in the Southwest U.S. • U.S. and International Project Development Current Projects • Cost Targets and Market Penetration Analysis

11. NV UT CO CA AZ NM TX U.S. Analysis Focused on the Southwest Region

12. U.S. Southwest GIS Screening Analysis for CSP Generation Screening Approach • Initial GIS screening analysis used to identify regions most economically favorable to construction of large-scale CSP systems. • GIS analysis used in conjunction with transmission and market analysis to identify favorable regions in the southwest

13. 1. Start with direct normal solar resource estimates derived from 10 km satellite data. Eliminate locations with less than 6.0 kWh/m2/day. Exclude environmentally sensitive lands, major urban areas, and water features. Remove land areas with greater than 1% (and 3%) average land slope. Eliminate areas with a minimum contiguous area of less than 1 square kilometers. 2. 3. 4. 5. Solar Resource Screening Analysis All Solar Resources Locations Suitable for Development

14. Southwest Solar Resources - Unfiltered Data

15. Southwest Solar Resources – Transmission Overlay

16. Southwest Solar Resources > 6.0 kWh/m2/day

17. Southwest Solar Resources with Environmental and Land Use Exclusions

18. Southwest Solar Resources Previous plus slope < 3%

19. Southwest Solar Resources Previous plus slope < 1%

20. Resulting CSP Resource Potential The table and map represent land that has no primary use today, exclude land with slope > 1%, and do not count sensitive lands. Current total nameplate capacity in the U.S. is 1,000GW w/ resulting annual generation of 4,000,000 GWh Solar Energy Resource  6.0 Capacity assumes 5 acres/MW Generation assumes 27% annual capacity factor

21. Optimal CSP Sites from CSP Capacity Supply Curves

22. Discussion • DOE Laboratory and CSP Technology Overview • Solar Resource Potential in the Southwest U.S. • U.S. and International Project Development Current Projects • Cost Targets and Market Penetration Analysis

23. 1-MW Arizona Trough Plant – near Tucson, AZ

24. 64 MWe Solargenix Parabolic Trough Plant

25. 50MW AndaSol-1 Parabolic Trough Plant w/ 7-hr StorageAndalucia, Spain

26. Solucar 50 MW Trough Project Sevilla, Spain First of 5 x 50MW parabolic trough plants under construction by Solucar

27. Solucar PS10 Power TowerSevilla, Spain

28. Solucar PS20 Under ConstructionSevilla, Spain

29. BrightSource Distributed Power Tower

30. Ausra Linear Fresnel

31. CSP Projects – early 2008 U.S. projects: enabled by 30% investment tax credit and State renewable portfolio standards

32. CSP Projects – International

33. Discussion • DOE Laboratory and CSP Technology Overview • Solar Resource Potential in the Southwest U.S. • U.S. and International Project Development Current Projects • Cost Targets and Market Penetration Analysis

34. Cost Targets for CSP in U.S. • Use California Energy Commission Market Price Referent (MPR) as proxy for value • Methodology based on capacity and energy costs associated with “conventional” baseload combined cycle generation plant and utility time of delivery (TOD) values. • Why focus on California MPR? • California Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) currently calls for 20% of state’s generation to come from renewables by 2010 • 2007 Baseload MPR for plant built in 2011 = $0.10 per kilowatt hour

35. Allowable Price for CSP Based on Utility Time of Delivery Factors • Assuming dispatchable parabolic trough systems with thermal storage and using time of delivery (TOD) values for three california utilities (SDG&E, PG&E, and SCE) • $.12 - $.14/kwh for initial penetration in intermediate load markets (California)

36. Bridging the Cost Gap • Cost Reductions to Bridge the Gap • Deployment • Plant Size • Financing • R&D • Analysis does not include current 30% investment tax credit Current Technology Cost $.16/kwh (nominal) $.11/kwh (real) 2015 Goal $.10/kwh (nominal) $.07/kwh (real) Source: WGA Solar Task Force Summary Report

37. Southwest Market AnalysisRegional Electricity Deployment System • A multi-regional, multi-time-period model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the U.S. focused on renewables. • Designed to estimate market potential of and wind and solar energy in the U.S. for the next 20-50 years under different technology development and policy scenarios

38. General Characteristics of ReEDS • Program minimizes costs for each of 26 two-year periods from 2000 to 2050 • Existing and new transmission lines • Wind and solar (CSP) currently represented • Conventional power technologies include hydro, gas CT, gas CC, coal, nuclear, gas/oil steam • Non-conventional power technologies include IGCC, coal and CC w/ sequestration

39. Cumulative CSP CapacityNo Extension of Solar ITC

40. Cumulative CSP Capacity8-year extension with declining ITC

41. CSP Capacity in 2020 with no ITC extension

42. CSP Capacity in 2020 with ITC extension

43. CSP Capacity in 2050 with ITC extension

44. CSP Capacity DESTINATION in 2050

45. Dedicated DC Transmission CSP Capacity Destination in 2050 ( 160 GWs Total) after allowing free transmission from AZ & CA to NY&MD

46. Summary • CSP technologies, especially those that incorporate near-term thermal storage, offer a combination of low-cost and high value to utility-scale markets. • The solar resource in the Southwest is immense resulting in generation potential of CSP greater than six times current U.S. demand. • Capacity supply curves based on the screening analysis demonstrate that suitable lands are located close to existing transmission, minimizing costs required to access high-value solar resources. • Near-term U.S. market penetration is a challenge but large based on continuation of current investment tax credit and southwest state policies attractive to large-scale solar. • Preliminary market penetration analysis indicates up to 30 GW of U.S. CSP capacity could be achieved by 2030 (120 GW by 2050)

47. Thank You!Mark MehosNational Renewable Energy Laboratorymark_mehos@nrel.gov(303) 384-7458www.nrel.gov/csp