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Mario López Pérez Engineering and Binational Water Issues Manager March 4 and 5, 2014

Mexican National Drought Programme ( Pronacose ). Mario López Pérez Engineering and Binational Water Issues Manager March 4 and 5, 2014 Ankara, Turkey. Precipitation 760 mm -1 489 km3/ year. Average evapotrans-piration 1 089 km3/ year. Average natural runoff 329 km3/ year.

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Mario López Pérez Engineering and Binational Water Issues Manager March 4 and 5, 2014

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  1. MexicanNationalDroughtProgramme (Pronacose) Mario López Pérez Engineering and Binational Water Issues Manager March 4 and 5, 2014 Ankara, Turkey

  2. Precipitation 760 mm -1 489 km3/year Averageevapotrans-piration 1 089 km3/year Average natural runoff 329 km3/year Importationfromothercountries 50 km3/year Exportation to othercountries 0.43 km3/year Surface waterextraction 50.5 km3/year Agricultural Use 61.8 km3/year Urban use 11.4 km3/year Industrial use 7.4 km3/year México in figures • 1964 thousand km2 • 112.3 millionpeople • Density 58 inhab/km2 • 77% populationis in locationsover 2,500 people • 188,595 locationsunder 2,500 people • 4,312 m3/people/yearwastheaverage natural availability in 2013 AquiferAveragerecharge 70 km3/year Groundwaterextraction 30.1 km3/year Yearlyaverages

  3. Mexico´s vulnerability due to geographic location

  4. Hurricaneshistoricaltracks HURrRICANES ATLANTIC SINCE 1851 PACIFIC SINCE 1949

  5. SeasonalRainfallDistribution 67% from June to September Problems (shift and amount) relatedwith temporal wateravailability are exacerbatedbyclimatechange. Spatialrainfalldistribution Annualaverageprecipitation 776 mm Highly variable Tabasco > 2000 mm Baja California <200 mm

  6. MEXICAN WATER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM GOVERMENT ORGANIZED SOCIETY PRESIDENT OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES SEMARNAT WATER ADVISORY COUNCIL (CCA) CONAGUA TECHNICAL COUNCIL PROFEPA NATIONAL LEVEL IMTA HYDROLOGICAL REGION AND STATE LEVEL STATE WATER ADVISORY COUNCIL BASIN ORGANIZATIONS USERS ASSEMBLY ADVISORY COUNCIL LOCAL AGENCIES FEDERAL OFFICES BASIN COUNCILS BASIN COMMISSIONS BASIN COMMITTEES USERS COMMITTEE STATE AND MUNICIPAL GOVERMENTS UNIVERSITIES AND RESEARCH CENTERS COTAS GOVERMENT ORGANIZED SOCIETY

  7. PRONACOSE POLITICAL SUPPORT January 10,2013 isannouncedbyPresident Peña Nieto in Zacatecas “… themaincomponentwill be, earlywarning,… and second, earlyaction to anticipate, prevent and actappropriately in time against eventual climatologiccontingenciesthatmayaffectthepopulation and theagriculturalproductivity”.

  8. PRONACOSE VISION Guaranteethepermanence of theplanning and implementationprocessforthedroughtmanagement, through social participation, developing and implementingthemeasures to reduce vulnerability as thebackbone of themexicanstrategy to adapt to climatechangeaccording to theClimateChangeLaw and theNationalWaterLaw. Tightlylinked to the Civil ProtectionSystem (against natural disasters).

  9. New waterpolicy Droughtattention plan Wherewewant to be (1 DroughtMonitoring(EarlyWarning) PRONACOSE (2 General Agreements at thebeggining and at theend of thedrought (Lawenforcement to guarantee human waterconsumption) Wherewe are Today Tomorrow • Basins (3 Programmes (to prevent and mitigate) • Reactive DroughtAttention : • SNPC, PDN-III, FONDEN y CADENA. • Users

  10. 1) DroughtMonitoring (earlywarning) • SPI (precipitation in basins) • SDI (dams and rivers) • Othermethodswithinternationalrecognition (MexicanDrought Monitor– North AmericaDrought Monitor) Indexes used Conagua defines beginning-end and droughtduration and locationwiththecategory of severeintensity, eachmonthforeveryHidrologicalRegion, Basin Council, StateorMunicipality. http://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5278695&fecha=22/11/2012

  11. DroughtMonitoring at CONAGUA web site • DroughtClassification: • HydrologicDrought • MeteorologicalDrought http://www.conagua.gob.mx/

  12. DroughtEvolution 2003-2014

  13. 3) Preventive and MitigationMeasuresProgrammes (PMPMS)foreach of the 26 BasinCouncils Designed and implementedbyauthorities and waterusers. Basedon local characteristics of everyregion. 26 BasinCounciles IMTA, Engineering and GeographyInstitutes -UNAM, Juárez University, State of Durango, Chihuahua, Baja California, Veracruz, Sonora, Chiapas, Zacatecas and Yucatán Universities 12 Universities CONAGUA (Headquarters and regional Offices, and BasinCouncils

  14. InstitutionalCoordination 1.- Intersecretarial Commissiontoattendfloods and droughts SEGOB ∙ SEDENA ∙ SEMAR ∙ SHCP ∙ SEDESOL ∙ SEMARNAT SENER ∙ SE ∙ SAGARPA ∙ SCT ∙ SALUD ∙ SEDATU ∙ CFE. DOF April 5, 2013 ArticleOne. A permanent Intersecretarial Comissioniscreated to attendfloods and droughts, responsible to coordinatetheactionsbetween Federal Agencies and Federal entities. Firstsession: April 24, 2013 Secondsession: July 3, 2013 Third and Forthsession: December 10, 2013 Fifthsession: February 17, 2014

  15. Pronacoseactionlines and components Coordinatedattention tomitigatethe droughtimpacts PMPMS formulation Lawenforcement to guarantee human waterconsumption • Formulation, implementation and evaluation • Coordination to applythe Natural DisasterFund (FONDEN) • Legal protocol establishment • Warning and MonitoringDrought • Publication and implementation of lawenforcementagreements to guarantee human waterconsumptionduringtheseverephase of drought. • Strenghtening of theinstitutionalframeworktoattendthedrought Permanentupdating of the federal programmes and itsoperation rules to assureanefficentaplication to mitigatethedroughteffects. • Research • Capacitybuilding, communication and divulgation

  16. Progress to December 2013 • Monitoring and EarlyWarning: • Monitoring and monthlywarningspublishedbyConagua at basin, state and municipalitylevelaccordingtotheintensitycategorydeterminedbythe North America DroughtMonitor • Weeklydetermination and publication of SPI and SDI forthemaindams and gauge stations. • Preventive and MitigationMeasuresProgrammesforDrought (PMPMS): • 26 PMPMS, oneforeachBasin Council. FirstVersion. • Base linesresearchdefined • Workshopswith 4 internationalexperts • Intersecretarial CommissiontoattendDrought : • Integrated and instalatedwith 13 offices. 4 sessions. • Instalation of theExpertsCommittee. 1session. • Instalation of theWorkGroup to revise the federal programmes. 2 sessiones

  17. PRONACOSE Follow up, evaluation and improvementprogramme: 2013 2018 17

  18. PRONACOSE IMPLEMENTATION 2014

  19. STEPS TO DEVELOP A PMPMS Interestedactors, objectives and principlesdevelopment Historicaldrought and impactanalysis Vulnerabilityevaluation Mitigation and response strategies Droughtphases, triggers and response goals Response droughtprogramme Implementation and monitoring Programmeevaluation and updating Implementation

  20. ProceSs TO GENERATE A PMPMS Elaboración de PMPMS Intersecretarial Commission Executes and informstheactionsadvancestoprevent and mitigatedrought ExpertsCommittee Issuescoments and recomendations CoordinatorTeam Analyze and integratethe PMPMS

  21. PMPMS ContenT

  22. PMPMS CONTENT

  23. PMPMS CONTENT

  24. WORK SHEETS Theworksheets are used to supportthedevelopment of thedroughtmanagementprogrammes. They are tools to helporganizethe ideas, information and data to be included in theprogram. Worksheet A – Historicdroughtimpact, futures and mitigation. Worksheet B – Mitigation and response strategiesfromoffert. Worksheet C – Mitigation and response strategiesfromdemand. Worksheet D – PublicinformationdroughtcampaignWorksheet E – Droughtphases, triggers and responses. Worksheet F – response droughtprogrambyphasesWorksheet G – Droughtmitigation and response programtodroughtbyphases Worksheet H – Mitigation and drought response byphases resume. Worksheet I - Mitigationaction plan. Worksheet J – Demandprojection and priorityasiggnation. Worksheet K – DroughtMonitoring

  25. UniversiTIES, Researchinstitutions AND INVITED EXPERTS

  26. A PMPMS example

  27. StandardizedPrecipitationIndex (SPI)

  28. 2033 Mexicali 2069 Valle de Las Palmas 2072 Ensenada North American Drought Monitor. April, 2013

  29. Expositionindex (IE) • Basedon : • Droughtfrequency – • Historic SPI (FS) • Precipitationfrequency (FP) • Storage soilcapacity (CAS) • WaterQuality (salinization) (SA) • IE = FS + (1-FP) + CAS + SA

  30. SensibilityIndex (IS) • Basedon: • -Number of concessions (NC) • Volumeby uses (VU): • Weight 1: public-urban, domestic • Weight 2: industrial, livestock • Weight 3: agricultural • PopulationDensity (DP) • Regulationlevel (GR) IS = NC + VU + DP + (1-GR)

  31. AdaptationCapacityIndex • Basedon: • - Recharge balance (BR) • Storage change (CA) • ICA = BR + CA

  32. AquiferVulnerabilityIndex • Basedon: • -ExpositionIndex (IE) • SensitivityIndex (IS) • Adaptationcapacityindex d(ICA) • IV= IE + IS + (1-ICA)

  33. Municipalityapplicationof thedroughtphases

  34. Triggers

  35. Triggers

  36. THANK youFOR theATTENTION mario.lopezperez@conagua.gob.mx www.pronacose.gob.mx Mario López Pérez Engineering and Binational Water Issues Manager March 4 and 5, 2014 Ankara, Turkey

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