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30 th Annual Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Workshop: Opening Remarks. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”. The Pennsylvania State University October 24, 2005. Overview.

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30 th annual climate diagnostic and prediction workshop opening remarks

30th Annual Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Workshop: Opening Remarks

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

The Pennsylvania State University

October 24, 2005

overview
Overview
  • Linking the Climate Test Bed (CTB) to:
    • Other NOAA components
    • Transition process from research to operations
  • Relationship of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) to the CTB
    • Status of computer support
the path to noaa s seamless suite of products and forecast services

Central

Guidance

Local

Offices

The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

Observe

To Serve Diverse

Customer Base

e.g., National Association of

State Energy Officials,

Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, …

Process

Products & Forecast Services

Respond & Feedback

Distribute

IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center

Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Feedback

slide4

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

R&D

1

  • Large “volume” of R&D,
  • funded through AOs,
  • Agency Labs…
  • Smaller set of R&D
  • products suitable for
  • operations.
  • Systematic transition steps.
  • New products can serve
  • diverse and expanding
  • user community.
  • Delivery to diverse USER
  • community

2

Transition from

research

to

operations/

applications

NCEP

is uniquely

positioned

to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition process

3

N

C

E

P

4

Operations

User Community

5

slide5

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

R&D

OGP

1

  • Large “volume” of R&D,
  • funded through AOs,
  • Agency Labs…
  • Smaller set of R&D
  • products suitable for
  • operations.
  • Systematic transition steps.
  • New products can serve
  • diverse and expanding
  • user community.
  • Delivery to diverse USER
  • community

2

Transition from

research

to

operations/

applications

NCEP

is uniquely

positioned

to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition process

3

N

C

E

P

CFS

CTB

4

Operations

User Community

CPC

5

slide6

NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations

Other Agencies

&

International

Effort

Service

Centers

Field

Offices

EMC

NOAA

Research

NCO

EMC

Observation

System

Life cycle

Support

Service Centers

User

OPS

Test Beds

JCSDA

CTB

WRF DTC

JHT

Operations

R&D

Delivery

Transition from Research to Operations

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

Concept of Operations

Requirements

Criteria

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

climate forecast system status
Climate Forecast System Status
  • Components
    • Atmosphere: GFS(2003) T62/L64
    • Ocean: MOM3 GFDL Ocean Model
    • Coupled once/day
  • Run 2X Day out to 9 months
  • The website for real time data retrieval is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst/
  • The climatological data is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/
  • Complete documentation available at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_data.pdf
computer support

Climate Forecast System

Computer Support
  • CFS Seasonal Operational Runs - ~10% of operational machine
  • Computational support for monthly forecast is in place ~ 10% of operational machine
  • Support for Climate Test Bed
    • Computational support being applied to approved projects (1/3 of “research” computer)
issues challenges highlights
Issues/Challenges/Highlights
  • Balances between external and transitional work
  • Reanalysis support
  • Multi-model Ensemble and related application
  • NCEP, NESDIS, ARL will move into the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in early 2008