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Paul Semenza Executive Vice President iSuppli/Stanford Resources

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  1. Challenges and Opportunities in the Flat Panel Display Market Paul Semenza Executive Vice President iSuppli/Stanford Resources

  2. Topics • Display component market overview • LCD • PDP • OLED and emerging technologies • Display systems markets – worldwide and China • Monitors • TV • Summary and conclusions

  3. TFT-LCD will dominate the display market • LCDs exceeded 50% of electronic display market value in 2002 • TFT-LCDs dominate – and most revenue is in large (>10 inch) sizes • Little revenue growth for CRT, but 80% of TVs will have them in 2007 • New flat panel types continue to emerge to compete with LCDs

  4. LCD is taking over the monitor market…

  5. LCD monitors are getting bigger… • TFT-LCD monitor panel compound annual growth rate of 33% from 2003 to 2007…

  6. So are notebook computer displays… • TFT-LCD notebook panel compound annual growth rate of 13% from 2003 to 2007…

  7. LCD TVs are set to take off

  8. Rapid growth for large TFT-LCD panel value • TFT-LCD large panel revenue compound annual growth rate of 23% from 2003 to 2007…

  9. Large TFT-LCD pricing fell rapidly until 2003

  10. Korea dominates TFT, Taiwan surpassed Japan • Unit production shares for large TFT-LCD panels, 2Q03…

  11. 1,100 x 1,250/1,300 (Gen 5) Large size Monitor and TV Monitor 680 x 880 – 730 x 920 (Gen 4) Notebook and Monitor 550 x 650 – 620 x 720 (Gen 3) 370 x 470 (Gen 2) Notebook Area = x ~3.5x ~8x ~2.5x New Fab Generations: 1,500 x 1,800 (Gen 6); 1,800 x 2,100 (Gen 7?) Display manufacturing driven by increased area 15-Inch Panels Per Substrate Substrate Sizes (“Generations”) and Key Applications 15-Up 6-Up 4-Up 2-Up (14-inch) 11

  12. Japanese producers moving to small-size TFT-LCDs • Unit production for small-size TFT-LCDs, Q203…

  13. Mobile phones going color

  14. LCD market still driven by PC, investment driven by TV • The TV market is nearly 50% larger than the monitor market in units, and 2.5 times as large in terms of value • Increasing sizes of TV means higher area consumption of LCDs • In the near term, margins are higher for TV panels • Larger panels costs are less dependent on module costs

  15. Worldwide plasma market by region

  16. Emerging display technologies • New types of displays • OLED • New types of electrophoretic • Carbon-nanotube FEDs • New modes for established displays • Flexible format • 3D • New components • Barrier layers • Organic TFTs • Optical films • LEDs as projector light sources

  17. Source – Samsung Electronics Source – Sanyo-Kodak OLED • Rising challenger to the LCD? • No issues with viewing angle or video speed • Gorgeous colors • Many manufacturing options

  18. Current OLED products • Pioneer • Car stereo – Pioneer, Kenwood • Cell phone subdisplay – Fujitsu, LG (plus new color one in Europe) • TDK • Car stereo – Alpine Electronics • SNMD • Cell phone subdisplay – SEC • RiTdisplay • Cell phone subdisplay – Motorola • Philips • Shaver – Norelco • Delta Optoelectronics • Portable MP3 player – GoDot • SK Display • Digital camera – Kodak • [Demo mobile phone with Intel processor] • Samples • DuPont Displays, Osram

  19. OLED activity in China • Production investments • Truly Semiconductor • Beijing Visionix Technology • Research and development • Shenzen SAST Display Technology • Beijing Founder PKU Group • BOE Technology Group • Lanbao Technology Information Co. • Eastcomm Communication Co. • Shanghai Audio & Video Electronics Group

  20. Worldwide OLED market – value

  21. Topics • Display component market overview • LCD • PDP • OLED and emerging technologies • Display systems markets – worldwide and China • Monitors • TV • Summary and conclusions

  22. Worldwide market for CRT/LCD monitors

  23. China market for CRT/LCD monitors

  24. CRT and LCD monitor manufacturing, 2Q03 Source – iSuppli/Stanford Resources Worldwide Monitor Market Tracker 3Q03

  25. CRT and LCD monitor manufacturing in China, 2Q03 Source – iSuppli/Stanford Resources Worldwide Monitor Market Tracker 3Q03

  26. Worldwide monitor market shares Source – iSuppli/Stanford Resources Worldwide Monitor Market Tracker 3Q03

  27. China monitor market shares Source – iSuppli/Stanford Resources Worldwide Monitor Market Tracker 3Q03

  28. Worldwide TV market

  29. China TV market

  30. Topics • Display component market overview • LCD • PDP • OLED and emerging technologies • Display systems markets – worldwide and China • Monitors • TV • Summary and conclusions

  31. Opportunities and challenges • China moving up value chain… • TN-LCD  color STN-LCD • TFT-LCD module assembly  TFT-LCD panel manufacturing • CRT  PDP • VFD  OLED • Large and growing demand for local sources of displays… • Significant domestic market for display systems • Well-developed infrastructure, human resources base • …But risk remains • ROI is questionable - TFT-LCD is an expensive commodity • Large Korean players continue to invest from internal • Smaller, "pure-play" companies in Taiwan going to investors • Japanese companies moving to higher value products

  32. Summary • TFT-LCD is now very competitive in sizes from the very small to the very large • Other technologies, like plasma and rear projection, will have to demonstrate superior price/performance characteristics • Tremendous investments in display production • In advance of TV market growth • Competition will drive prices down rapidly • Mass markets will benefit directly • Other verticals can take advantage as well • New technologies will continue to emerge • must differentiate themselves in some key applications in order to thrive

  33. Challenges and Opportunities in the Flat Panel Display Market Paul Semenza Executive Vice President iSuppli/Stanford Resources