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  1. Campaigns and Voting Behavior 9

  2. Video: The Big Picture 9 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Edwards_Ch09_Campaigns_and_Voting_Behavior_Seg1_v2.html

  3. 9 Learning Objectives Evaluate the fairness of our current system of presidential primaries and caucuses 9.1 Explain the key objectives of any political campaign 9.2

  4. 9 Learning Objectives Outline how the financing of federal campaigns is regulated by campaign finance laws 9.3 Determine why campaigns have an important yet limited impact on election outcomes 9.4

  5. 9 Learning Objectives Identify the factors that influence whether people vote 9.5 Assess the impact of party identification, candidate evaluations, and policy opinions on voting behavior 9.6

  6. 9 Learning Objectives Evaluate the fairness of the Electoral College system for choosing the president 9.7 Assess the advantages and disadvantages of the U.S. system of campaigns and elections 9.8

  7. Video: The Basics 9 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg2_Elections_v2.html

  8. 9.1 Nomination Game • Competing for Delegates • Convention Send-Off

  9. 9.1 Competing for Delegates • National party convention • State delegates meet and vote on nominee • Primaries • Nomination process more democratic today • Originally in the hands of Party Bosses • Early 20th Century Reforms put the process in the hands of Party membership • Riots at the 1968 Convention led to even more democratic reforms • McGovern-Fraser Commission • Opened up the delegate selection process • Women, minorities, young people • Republicans and the states adopt primaries

  10. 9.1 Riots at the 1968 Democratic national convention

  11. 9.1 Competing for Delegates • National party convention • Superdelegates (1980s) • Resulted from the Hunt Commission of 1984 • People who are awarded automatic slots as delegates because they are members of Congress, Governors, members of the party’s national committee, or distinguished members of the Party, like former Presidents and VPs • Purpose is to balance out the partisan tendencies of the electorate by bringing peer review back to the process • Meant to produce a more electable candidate • Have never decided the outcome of a party nomination • Account for about 20% of all delegates • Called “unpledged” delegates on the Republican side and account for a smaller percentage of delegates at the convention

  12. 9.1 Competing for Delegates • Invisible primary • Woo support out of the public eye • Endorsements from elected officials • Craft positive personal image • Distinguish themselves from other candidates • Seek media attention but avoid blunders

  13. 9.1 2012 Republican primary debate

  14. 9.1 Competing for Delegates • Caucuses and primaries • Iowa caucus • New Hampshire primary • Proportional versus winner-take-all primaries

  15. 9.1 Competing for Delegates • Evaluating the primary and caucus system • Disproportionate attention goes to early caucuses and primaries even though the number of delegates at stake is small • 3 “M”s

  16. 9.1 FIGURE 9.1: A count of Clinton and Obama events during the 2008 nomination campaign

  17. 9.1 Competing for Delegates • Evaluating the primary and caucus system • Prominent politicians find it difficult to take time out from their duties to run • Miss crucial votes • Money plays too big a role in the caucuses and primaries • Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative • 2016 was an exception • System gives too much power to the media • They designate winners and losers

  18. 9.1 Convention Send-Off • Winner foregone conclusion • Reduced TV coverage • Party infomercial • Carefully scripted • Party platform • Policy goals for next four years • Keynote Address • Acceptance Speech • General election officially underway

  19. 9.1 9.1Why were party primaries introduced? • Previous nominating process was undemocratic • Candidates refused to run without a change of nominating procedure • Party leadership demanded it • All of the above

  20. 9.1 9.1Why were party primaries introduced? • Previous nominating process was undemocratic • Candidates refused to run without a change of nominating procedure • Party leadership demanded it • All of the above

  21. Campaign Game 9.2 • High-Tech Media Campaign • Organizing the Campaign

  22. High-Tech Media Campaign Main means of reaching voters = TV Internet increasingly important Easier to donate and cheaper to solicit funds Direct mail now digital Digital campaigning via Twitter, Facebook Obligatory for the modern campaign Two ways to get attention Paid Media vs Free Media Television advertising Can control their message and image News coverage Staged events and press releases No guarantee of coverage 9.2

  23. Organizing the Campaign Get a campaign manager Get a fund-raiser Get a campaign counsel Hire media and campaign consultants Assemble a campaign staff Plan the logistics Advance teams and volunteers Get a research staff and policy advisers Hire a pollster Hire a good press secretary Establish a Web site 9.2

  24. 9.2 9.2 Which staff members does a modern candidate need to hire? • Press secretary • Pollsters • Campaign manager • All of the above

  25. 9.2 9.2 Which staff members does a modern candidate need to hire? • Press secretary • Pollsters • Campaign manager • All of the above

  26. Campaign Strategy 9.3 • Focus on larger competitive (battleground or swing) states • Could tip the balance in the electoral college • Florida • Pennsylvania • Ohio • Virginia

  27. Money and Campaigning 9.3 • Regulations on Campaign Contributions • Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures • Are Campaigns Too Expensive? • Does Money Buy Victory?

  28. Regulations on Campaign Contributions 9.3 • Federal Election Campaign Act (1974) • Who contributed • How money spent • Limits on individual and interest group contributions • Federal Election Commission (FEC) • Opensecrets.org • Fundrace.org • Public financing • IRS Chceckoff • Loopholes • Buckley v. Valeo (1976) • No limits on spending own money • Ross Perot spent $60 million • Trump • Allowed for unlimited amounts of soft $ to parties

  29. 9.3 IRS Checkoff

  30. 9.3 Figure 9.2: How Obama raised more campaign money by declining federal funds

  31. McCain-Feingold (BCRA) Banned Soft Money Raised limits individuals could contribute to $2000 Banned issue ads 30 days prior to a primary/60 days prior to a general election Must have disclaimers Changed aggregate limits to biennial Struck down in McCutcheon v FEC 9.3

  32. Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures 527 groups New route for soft money Independent expenditures Endorsements forbidden Citizens United v. FEC (2010) $ equals free speech Corporations/unions are people Struck down ban on issue ads in McCain-Feingold 9.3

  33. 9.3 Citizens United

  34. Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures 527 groups Disclosure requirements No express advocacy Citizens United v. FEC (2010) Super PACs Can spend enormous amounts provided that it’s in the form of independent expenditures Are allowed to engage in express advocacy Dark Money 501(c) groups No express advocacy 9.3

  35. 9.3 TABLE 9.1: Biggest 10 Super PAC donations in 2012

  36. Are Campaigns Too Expensive? Yes 2008 federal elections cost $5 billion Fundraising distracts from official duties No Only .05% of GDP spent on elections About the cost of one DVD per person How to reform system? Citizens and free speech Incumbency advantage 9.3

  37. Video: In the Real World 9.3 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg5_Elections_v2.html

  38. Does Money Buy Victory? Is there a link between money and votes? Some say no Spend more only when weak Doctrine of sufficiency No need to outspend opponent to win 9.3

  39. 9.3 9.3What are independent political expenditures? • Money spent between campaigns to keep an official visible to voters • Money spent on bumper stickers and lawn signs to support a candidate • Money spent without coordination with a campaign • Money spent to endorse a candidate explicitly

  40. 9.3 9.3What are independent political expenditures? • Money spent between campaigns to keep an official visible to voters • Money spent on bumper stickers and lawn signs to support a candidate • Money spent without coordination with a campaign • Money spent to endorse a candidate explicitly

  41. Impact of Campaigns 9.4 • How important are campaigns? • Reinforcement • Activation • Conversion • Campaigns mainly reinforce and activate • Why are conversions rare? • Selective perception • Party identification • Incumbent advantage • Wedge issues • In an effort to “convert” • abortion

  42. 9.4 9.4In what way is a campaign least likely to influence voters? • Activating voters to participate or contribute money • Converting voters to switch sides • Reinforcing voters’ preference for candidates • None of the above

  43. 9.4 9.4In what way is a campaign least likely to influence voters? • Activating voters to participate or contribute money • Converting voters to switch sides • Reinforcing voters’ preference for candidates • None of the above

  44. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice 9.5 • Deciding Whether to Vote • Registering to Vote • Who Votes?

  45. 9.5 2008 Minnesota Senate race

  46. Deciding Whether to Vote Does one vote matter? Voting is costly Tuesday is a workday Is it rational to vote? Policy differences Political efficacy Civic duty 9.5

  47. Video: In Context 9.5 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg3_Voting_v2.html

  48. Registering to Vote Voter registration laws differ by state Some allow same day registration others do not Motor Voter Act (1993) Did not lead to expected increased voter turnout Voter ID laws Show government-issued photo ID to vote Some argue it is discriminatory Crawford v. Marion County Election Board SCOTUS upholds Indiana voter ID Law Overall, inconsistent Wisconsin Voter ID upheld in federal courts; North Carolina nad Texas struck down; SCOTUS refuses to hear all letting lower court decisions stand 9.5

  49. 9.5 New voter ID laws