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Mining Financing in Frontier Countries Dr. Sacha BackesOil, Gas, Mining & Chemicals Department International Finance Corporation World Bank Group FINEX 2010 The Geological Society 27/28 October, 2010
The Crisis and Government responses Impact • Bankruptcies, debt and equity markets closed/constrained, demand and trade collapse, supply constraints, unemployment Global responses • Monetary easing: low interest rates, liquidity supply through packages ( Fed., ECB), QE • Fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand: govn’t spending; tax adjustments, etc • Fiscal Stimulus Packages • －U.S. ~US$ 800 billion 5.5% GDP • － China ~US$ 600 billion 6.9% GDP • － Europe ~US$ 200 billion • － Japan ~US$ 100 billion 2.3% GDP • － Mexico ~US$ 32 billion 4.7% GDP • － India ~US$ 4 billion 0.3% GDP • － Australia ~US$ 10 billion 0.9% GDP • － Argentina ~US$ 13 billion 3.9% GDP
Global economic outlook • Global recovery? GDP growth of 5.2% in 2007 vs 4.6% in 2015 • China and India led and leading global demand • Sustainable recovery dependent on successfully phasing out of stimulus packages and resurgence of underlying real demand – but OECD austerity budgets • Fiscal and monetary interventions rather than structural reform – risk to long term OECD potential growth Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Apr 2010
Labor markets • Dramatic increase in unemployment in advanced economies since the crisis, especially in Europe • US labor costs down and structural gaps emerging • Lower unemployment in emerging Asian economies • Growth potential from BRICs, esp. China - inland infrastructure stimulus will outlive OECD stimuli • China asset bubbles concerns and Renminbi appreciation impact ? Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Apr 2010
China rapidly catching up • Growth expected across the board • 1995 developing and emerging economies accounted for 35% of global output (PPP) … today it is around 47%. • Declining US global share of GDB based on emergence of BRICs, though mainly China Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Apr 2010
Key metal consuming industries • Autos and construction account for around 50% of global consumption of four key base metals (also major consumers of iron and steel) • Auto industry was a key focus of western stimulus packages, but these are being / have been phased out. • ---- • Construction continues to be a key element of Chinese stimulus. • Chinese auto sales continue to increase dramatically. Auto sales growth of 20% expected in China this year vs 9% global decline. Consumed a third of global copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, steel. • Chinese Stimulus boosted Chinese demand through infrastructure projects focused on inland areas.
The deterioration in capital and financial markets since April reflect an increasing recognition of the contraction to aggregate demand implied by OECD spending cuts underway in much of the developed world. BUT true impact on real economy will only be felt in coming months. However, the forecast growth in emerging and developing economies, especially China, less burdened by fiscal and debt problems, which today constitute nearly half of global output, may provide for some global economic respite, though some short / medium term concerns exist. But the extent to which this can be sustained is not clear, but sustained slow and steady growth generally expected. Summary
Exploration Future supply based on current exploration efforts Junior companies accounted for ever increasing share of exploration activity until 2008 Substantial reduction in spending by juniors during crisis – closed equity markets, heavily discounted junior stocks, cash preservation Juniors expected to lead again in 2010/11 on back of strong metal prices and available equity financing M&A activity started slowly during / after crisis, but now … Source: Metals Economics Group (MEG)
2010 mining M&A – very busy! • Gold M&A (not all completed) – 1) Newcrest (Lihir, US$ 8.4 bil), 2) Kinross Gold (Red Back Mining, US$ 7 bil), 3) Goldcorp (Andean Resources, C$ 3.6 bil), 4) Eldorado Gold (Sino Gold Mining, C$ 2 bil), 5) Fronteer Gold (AuEx Ventures, US$ 238 mil), 6) Eldorado Gold (Brazauro Resources, C$122 mil), 7) Apollo Gold (Linear Gold, C$ 102 mil), 8) Kinross Gold (Underworld Resources, US$98 mil), 9) Serabi Mining (Brazil, Eldorado Gold to take 26.8% stake), 10) Goldstone Resources (Bendigo Resources to take 20% stake), 11) Central African Gold (Zimbabwe, taken over by New Dawn Mining), • Other partnerships: BHP (Potash Corp, US$39 billion, SinoChem?), African Minerals (Shandong Iron and Steel Grp to take 25% project stake for off-take or dividends), Toledo Mining (Jinchuan Group, China’s largest Ni producer, to take 29.5% stake), Bellzone Mining (China International Fund re Kalia iron project in Guinea), Herencia Resources (Nystar to take 10% stake re Paguanta Zn-Ag-Pb-Au project in Chile), Creat Resources (formerly Zeehan Zinc, takes 20% stake in eGalaxy Resources, re tantalum / lithium), Jubilee Platinum & Sylvania Resources (S Africa, PGM processing JV), Sundance (China Harbourand China Rail re Mbalam Fe Project Cameroon and Congo) • 2010: Gold 40%, Copper 16%, Iron ore 7%, coal 7%, silver 6% • 2010: Canadian / American firms 49%, Asian firms 21% • Chinese strategic partnerships for off-take / resource security
Mine Development Constraints: • Resources - Large/high grade/low cost deposits increasingly rare • Host country – Remaining deposits increasingly located in poorly governed, unstable and/or frontier countries (DRC, Guinea, Mongolia) • Infrastructure - Many deposits in remote areas with major infrastructure requirements • Regulation - Increasingly tight host country regulatory constraints (Zambia, Tanzania, S Africa, Zimbabwe, Russia) • E&S: More rigorous environmental standards, and local communities increasingly aware of the impact of mining and asserting their right for a say in mining development
Metal prices & oil • Strong metal price recovery since Jan 2009, but costs have also risen. • Fall in oil price reduced energy cost of production for producers during crisis. • Price glitch since sovereign concerns surfaced in April / May • Gold and Silver continue safe haven trend – unwinding of hedge books, low interest rates, possible further US QE • Industrial metals following growth forecasts
Overall impacts • Likely crisis induced slower pace of new development and metal supply than in the past, against strong demand recovery • Creeping increase in capex and opex; costs seem to have been sticky downwards in 2009, probably in part due to national stimulus packages. • Long term supply price curve likely to be pushed up, though ultimate impact will depend on demand trends / substitutes, etc.
Mining equities on AIM and market volatility Dow Jones Industrial Average – Volatility index Ernst & Young – Mining Eye Index • Steady capital markets recovery through to April 2010, followed by sovereign debt concerns and fear of contagion. • Austerity packages have helped re-assure markets, but will dent growth. How many more skeletons in the closet?
Mining equity financing on LSE AIM • 14 new listings since Q4 2009! • Lowest level further raisings in Q4 2008 / Q1 2009 … ramp up in Q2, Q3, Q4 2009 on back of recovering share prices, and recent lull! • Dilution concerns (gold, copper, silver exception) and focus on value adding projects; Some indications of more investor appetite on TSX and ASX. • New: Q1: Scotgold Res. (Scotland), Stellar Diamonds (Guinea, Sierra Leone), Edenville Energy (Tanzania), Pathfinder Min. (CIS, Africa), Q2: Bellzone Min. (Guinea), Kibo Min. (Tanzania), Metminco (Peru Chile), Q Resources (‘Africa’), Ncondezi Coal (Mozambique). Q3: Horizonte (Brazil), CAML (Kazakhstan) (frontier focus!!)
Debt Syndications • Syndications still down compared to pre-crisis, in numbers and volume • Covenants tightened and spreads widened during crisis … recently leveled out; may increase again with renewed uncertainties • DFIs often needed for large financings in difficult sectors in emerging markets • Concern re bank exposure to sovereign debt of concerned countries, mostly European
Market Risk Perception CDS spreads – cost of insuring against credit default and thus market risk perception indicator • Dramatic increases during crisis; now come down, but still above pre-crisis levels • Spreads not that far away from China, emerging markets heavily priced • Dramatic increases for Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain during May 2010. • China spreads closer to pre-2007 levels than OECD
Possible outlook • Equity markets have recovered well, but risk-aversion has resurfaced; debts markets have still some way to go and may have changed all together. • Sovereign debt concerns have weighed heavily on market risk perception and investor risk appetite • Short term: Demand relatively stable and driven by China, BUT uncertainty due to transition from Government fiscal stimulus packages and impact of austerity budgets • Medium/Long term: Global supply constraints likely in some metals and fundamentals analysis fairly robust • Prices - supply constraints and cost pressures likely to underpin prices in long term
Mining and the Frontier • Global resource scarcity and relative resource richness in frontier countries have drawn juniors to countries which many had previously avoided. • As a commercially driven development institution, IFC focuses on opportunities in the frontier. • IFC defines the frontier as both the poorest emerging countries and poorer, less developed region in more middle income emerging countries 22
High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income AIM Listed Juniors and Frontier Countries New opportunities, but also challenges and risks: 1) Governance 2) Resource nationalism 7% 8% 21% 2.3 8.0 6.7 10% 22% 2.3 3.7 64% 19% 2.8 3.7 64% of AIM listed companies are active in Africa. 15% 9.0 % % AIM-listed companies working in this region % Average TI corruption index
Challenges and Opportunities Challenges • Uncertain regulatory and fiscal frameworks and challenging business environments, and increased host country awareness of bargaining power. • As a result, good geological resource potential may be inadequately explored and developed. • A company needs to navigate government, local community and environmental requirements skillfully and responsively in order to realize resource potential. Potential Rewards • These ‘barriers to entry’ against competition can help skilful companies with the right approach in a particular frontier. • The generally challenging environment globally for new supply also likely to support prices for successful producers.
Responses • Investors can mitigate national/regional governance issues by building a strong, sustainable relationship with the local community and getting a ‘social license to operate’. • Three IFC clients who have done this well are: • Bema Gold (now acquired by Kinross) in Far East Russia; • Lonmin in S Africa; • Lydian in Armenia. • Other key mitigants: transparency about costs and project economics; and contract terms which share fairly between host government and company. • Since frontier countries are higher risk, raising financing can be tough. • Project Finance may need to involve DFIs, such as IFC, which require high operating standards and strong community engagement.
Key Elements in Raising Finance • Prepare the ground with financiers carefully and start building relationships early on • Strong documentation / demonstration of project quality • Demonstration of project team experience and ability / commitment to manage risks • Evidence of high standards and strong community engagement • Partner with an established industry player and / or a strong and reputable investor
Role of value adding partners • The combination of tougher market conditions and host country challenges may make it difficult for a junior company to succeed without one or more strong partner. • This may be a strategic / industry or financial partner – depends on needs. In both cases can: • Raise standards - by strengthening management capacity (financial, technical, environmental and / or social) • Increase credibility / reputation – give comfort to potential investors and to host government • Long term view – stick around even in bad times / deep pockets
IFC is a Member of the World Bank Group MIGA Multilateral Investment and Guarantee Agency IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IDA International Development Association IFC International Finance Corporation Est. 1945 Est. 1960 Est. 1956 Est. 1988 Role: To promote institutional, legal and regulatory reform Governments of member countries with per capita income between $1,025 and $6,055. - Technical assistance - Loans - Policy Advice To promote institutional, legal and regulatory reform Governments of poorest countries with per capita income of less than $1,025 - Technical assistance - Interest Free Loans - Policy Advice To promote private sector development Private companies in member countries - Equity/Quasi-Equity - Long-term Loans - Risk Management - Advisory Services To reduce political investment risk Foreign investors in member countries - Political Risk Insurance Clients: Products: Shared Mission: To Promote Economic Development and Reduce Poverty
IFC’s Products and Services Senior Debt Structured Finance Mezzanine Finance Private Equity • Convertible debt • Subordinated debt • Convertibles • Other Tier II instruments • Partial credit guarantees • Securitization • Bond underwriting • Credit Enhancement • On-lending • Liquidity management • Acquisition financing • Warehousing facilities • Syndicated loans • Common shares • Preferred shares Global Trade Finance Program Advisory Services Sustainable Finance • $1 billion program • Guarantees to issuing banks • 46 issuing banks in 24 countries • 92 confirming banks in 62 countries • $579 million of issued guarantees in first 12 months • Carbon finance • Renewable energy • Supply chain financing • Corporate governance financing • Corporate governance • Risk management • Small and medium business banking • Energy efficiency finance • Local supplier development • Community development
Investments by Region, FY09 • Commitments for IFC’s Account: $10.5 Billion • Global 2% • Sub-Saharan Africa 17% • Middle East and North Africa 12% • East Asia and Pacific 11% • Latin America and the Caribbean 26% • South Asia 12% • Europe and Central Asia 20%
IFC’s Current Mining Portfolio US$445 million for IFC’s account as of July 31st, 2010 By Product By Region MENA US$4.8M Gold 43% Eastern & C. Europe US$49.6M Other Metals 20.9% Sub-Saharan Africa US$255.5M Aluminum & Bauxite 9% Latin America US$89M Copper 18% Iron Ore 9% Diamonds 0.1% E Asia & Pacific US$41.7M World US$4.6M
2010 IFC mining investments • Argentex Argentina pending ~US$18 million eq • Petra Diamonds Tanzania pending ~US$40 million ln • Mindoro Resources Philippines July 2010 ~CAD10 million eq • Tsodilo Resources Botswana June 2010 ~CAD5 million eq • Nyota Minerals Ethiopia June 2010 ~GBP7.5 million eq • Kasbah Resources Morocco June 2010 ~AS$10 million eq • Volta Resources Burkina Faso March 2010 ~CAD14 million eq • Eurasian Mining Haiti March 2010 ~US$5 million eq • Helio Resources Tanzania Feb 2010 ~CAD7.7 million eq
IFC Financing • * “Mobilization” for 2006 and 2007 includes structured finance, loan participations, and parallel loans. Strong mobilization mandate
The IFC Advantage • Access to financing – With its development mandate, IFC takes on country risk. • Seal of Approval - IFC involvement in a project is often seen as a seal of approval, which can give comfort to potential investors • Political Risk Coverage - IFC presence in a transaction reduces the occurrence of: 1) corruption, 2) expropriation of funds, 3) mismanagement of revenues, and 4) extraneous regulations • Structuring Capability - ‘Honest Broker’ reputation facilitates negotiations amongst diverse groups: 1) foreign investors, 2) local partners, 3) local communities, and 4) government representatives • Environmental and social risk – IFC’s Performance Standards help ensure good risk mitigation
Many strong international financiers adhere to IFC’s principles on E&S responsibility risk management “Equator Principles” adopted by 50+ of the world’s leadinginvestment banks and based on IFC’s Performance Standards Apply to 85% of project financing worldwide
IFC’s Global Reach London
IFC Contacts William Bulmer Head of Global Mining Division, Washington DC Phone: +1 202 473 8750 Email: WBulmer@ifc.org Fax: +1 202 974 4323 Sacha Backes Investment Officer, Business Development, London Oil, Gas, Mining and Chemicals Department Phone: +44 (0)20 7592 8413 Mobile: +44 (0)79 1710 0720 Email: SBackes@ifc.org Fax: +44 207 592 8430
Thank you for your attention!!