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Vote Goals AND TARGETING

Vote Goals AND TARGETING. Tom Bonier Clarity Campaign Labs. Introductions. NOI O n Demand You Norms. FOLLOWING THE LAW. Elections.neworganizing.com. FOLLOWING THE LAW. www.afj.org. Tom Bonier. Partner/Co-founder. Clarity Campaign Labs.

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Vote Goals AND TARGETING

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  1. Vote Goals AND TARGETING Tom Bonier Clarity Campaign Labs

  2. Introductions NOI On Demand You Norms

  3. FOLLOWING THE LAW Elections.neworganizing.com

  4. FOLLOWING THE LAW www.afj.org

  5. Tom Bonier Partner/Co-founder Clarity Campaign Labs

  6. To provide an understanding of what targeting and vote goals are, why they are helpful, and how they can be implemented

  7. What is targeting and why is it helpful? • How to calculate a vote goal • How to use targeting to reach your goal • Persuasion • GOTV • Using a vote goal to build a program • Case studies

  8. How is targeting useful? • Makes the most of limited resources • Provides for accountability (Field math!) • Charts out a clear path to victory

  9. TARGETING – HOW TO BEST USE LIMITED RESOURCES

  10. How many votes to win? {majority of people who vote} How many people will vote? • Historical turnout • Unique factors to this year • Who is in my district? What % do I need to win? • How many candidates are on the ballot? • How confident am I in my turnout #s? • many votes to win?

  11. Vote goal formula 1. Pick 3 similar elections. 2. Find Turnout Rate Turnout Turnout Turnout = Turnout Rate ( ) / 3 Registration Registration Registration + + 3. Apply turnout to current registration Turnout Rate x Registered Voters = Expected Vote 4. Find win # (50% + 1, 52% to be safe) Expected Vote x 50% + 1 = win number.

  12. expected vote: case study Don’t Let the Perfect Be the Enemy of the Good 1996 and 2008 turnout dips compared to other Presidential years: could this be explained by the absence of a Senate contest on the ballot? Credit: Luke Peterson, NCEC

  13. Don’t Let the Perfect Be the Enemy of the Good Vote Goal is used for planning… • Which voters need engagement • What your voter contact plan should look like • How much your plan is likely to cost • When in doubt, round up! • Gut check!

  14. TARGETING - SUPPORT • Geographic targeting • Supporter IDs • Modeled support • Poll-based demographic targeting

  15. TARGETING - PERSUASION • Undecided IDs • Soft supporter IDs • Ticket-splitter models • Cross-pressured voters • EIP

  16. TARGETING – HOW TO BEST USE LIMITED RESOURCES

  17. VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGN Step 1 – Base Vote How many votes do you already have? • Likely voting core supporters, no persuasion or GOTV needed How many more votes do you need? • Vote goal minus Base vote Step 2 – Vote deficit

  18. VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGN Step 3 – Base Vote Expansion How many votes can you gain through increased base turnout? • Infrequent voting core supporters • Voter registration potential • Gut check – how realistic is this goal in the context of past precedent? • How far short does your base vote expansion goal leave you of erasing your deficit?

  19. VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGN Step 4 – Persuasion What share of the persuadable voters must you win in order to reach your goal? • Likely voting persuadable voters • Set an ID goal; try to convert and ID as many supporters among your persuasion, at a minimum, as your vote deficit number • Gut check – how realistic is this goal in the context of past precedent, polling, and general common sense (ie, is your goal to win 90% of swing voters?)

  20. VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGN Step 5 – Budgeting Persuasion vs GOTV • What does your program look like to reach your GOTV goal? What will it cost? • What does your program look like to reach your persuasion goal? What will it cost? • Do these allocations make sense? Is one more efficient than the other?

  21. VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGN Step 6 – Implementation • IDing your win number • What does your program look like to reach your persuasion goal? What will it cost? • Do these allocations make sense? Is one more efficient than the other?

  22. VOTE GOAL TEMPLATE

  23. Case study Under-represented Mobilization An anti-immigration politician won an election by less than 1%. A group that does issue advocacy/electoral work notices this result, and discovers that Hispanic voters comprised only 7% of the district’s electorate, but a much larger share of the eligible voters.

  24. Case study Under-represented Mobilization Action plan: • Take subset of the non-voting Hispanic universe (easily canvassable doors) • Knock each door 3 times • Goal: 50% turnout from target universe Result: Hispanic voter share increases by 3%, more than enough to make the difference

  25. Questions?

  26. www.neworganizing.com/toolbox

  27. Interdependent Leadership (aka the Snowflake Model) How can I support? https://act.neworganizing.com/donate/NOD_Donate_08-2012/ Interdependent Leadership

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