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Predictors of Online Student Success. Karl Konsdorf Manager, Research, Analytics and Reporting Office: 937-512-2112 Email: Karl.Konsdorf@sinclair.edu. Agenda. Who is Sinclair? Online Learning Student Data Previous Studies of Online Student Success New Study of Online Student Success

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predictors of online student success
Predictors of Online Student Success

Karl Konsdorf

Manager, Research, Analytics and Reporting

Office: 937-512-2112

Email: Karl.Konsdorf@sinclair.edu

agenda
Agenda
  • Who is Sinclair?
  • Online Learning Student Data
  • Previous Studies of Online Student Success
  • New Study of Online Student Success
  • Results and Next Steps
who is sinclair community college
Who is Sinclair Community College?
  • Community College located in Dayton, Ohio
    • One of the largest single-campus community colleges in the U.S.
  • Enrollment 15,000 FTE; 25,000 Headcount
  • Vanguard Learning College
    • Top 12 two-year institutions in North America
  • Board member for the League for Innovation
  • Sinclair faculty and staff directly serve over 110,000 individuals in college courses, training sessions, and conference center events in a year’s time
sinclair community college online learning
Sinclair Community College – Online Learning

Over 200 Accredited Online Courses

Transferable Programs and Credits

Lowest Tuition in Ohio

Experienced Faculty

Devoted Student Support Team

Six Online Associate Degrees

Five Online Certificates

www.sinclair.edu/online

Winner of the prestigious Bellwether Award for the “Pioneering Online Sciences Labs” project

online student demographics fall 2011
Online Student Demographics – Fall 2011
  • Average Age is 30
    • College wide, the average age is 32
  • 68% of the online students are female
    • College wide - 58% / State wide 51%
  • 15% of the online students are minority
    • College wide – 20% / State wide 16%
  • In Fall 2011 nearly 1,000 new students enrolled in online classes.
    • 70% of the online students were retained from prior term.
  • 58% of the students reside with the county
what is success
What is Success??
  • Earning a grade of A, B, C, P or S = Success
  • Earning a grade of D, F, N, U or W = Non-Success
  • All other enrollments were excluded from the analysis.
    • Audits, Incomplete, Non-Attendance, etc.
previous studies december 2002
Previous Studies – December 2002
  • Key Findings
    • GPA of 2.00 or better more likely to succeed
    • Placement tests scores indicated success
    • Enrollment in DEV also indicated [non] success
    • Other factors such as demographics, financial aid, and previous online success had little influence
previous studies december 20021
Previous Studies – December 2002
  • Results
    • Restriction of GPA of 2.0 implemented
previous studies april 2008
Previous Studies – April 2008
  • Key Findings
    • GPA still the best predictor of success
    • Writing placement tests scores next best indicator
    • Other factors such as demographics, financial aid, and previous online success had little influence on the model.
  • Results
    • No actions taken
new study april 2011
New Study – April 2011
  • Registration Data
    • Demographics, Enrollment Behaviors, Success Data
  • Online Student Survey
    • Student Online Learning Experience
  • Usage Data from the Online Learning Management System
    • Number of Logins, Session Length, etc..
  • Online Student Success Course
  • Faculty Online Course Certification
analysis techniques
Analysis Techniques
  • SAS Enterprise Miner
  • Decision Tree Modeling
    • Good technique for classifying binary outcomes
    • Varied parameters to select the number of branches
  • Logistic Regression
    • Stepwise Regression
    • Required imputed survey data
  • Compared Modeling Techniques using misclassification rates
modeling results
Modeling Results
  • Decision Tree Model was chosen
  • Misclassification rates was less than 10%
    • 90% of the observations were correctly classified.
  • Most important variable was . . . . .
online learning student success
Online Learning Student Success

The number of times the student login and viewed the online course in the learning management system!

Students have greater chance of success if they connect with the online learning management systems at least 20 times during the learning period.

online learning success results and next steps
Online Learning Success – Results and Next Steps
  • Created a process to monitor the student course login interval.
  • If the login interval in more than 3 days, then an email in automatically generated and set to the faculty indicating that a specific student hasn’t logged in to the system.
online learning success results and next steps1
Online Learning Success – Results and Next Steps
  • These results are align with educational research that correlates student engagement with student success
questions
Questions?

Thank You!