Indonesia e conomic outlook 20 10 11 faisal basri 29 juli 2010
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INDONESIA : E CONOMIC OUTLOOK 20 10-11 Faisal Basri 29 Juli 2010. Part I The World Economy. The world economic outlook, 2009-2011. * Projection Source s : IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010. Leading economic indocators kian membaik. Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb.

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Indonesia e conomic outlook 20 10 11 faisal basri 29 juli 2010

INDONESIA:ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010-11Faisal Basri29 Juli 2010


Part i the world economy

Part IThe World Economy


The world economic outlook 2009 2011
The world economic outlook, 2009-2011

* Projection

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010


Leading economic indocators kian membaik
Leading economic indocatorskianmembaik


Oil prices have roughly doubled since feb
Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb.

Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) August 2010

03:58 p.m EDT

US$76.81 =

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

  • Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118

  • Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134

  • Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145

  • Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150

  • Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.


Oil prices and stock market
Oil prices and stock market

=10,497.88

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html


Oil prices and gold dec comex
Oil prices and gold (Dec., Comex)

=$1165.9

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html


The financialization of commodities has led to greater financial investor interest
The “financialization” of commodities has led to greater financial investor interest

Remarks by John Lipsky (IMF) At the 4th OPEC International SeminarVienna, March 18, 2009 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2009/pdf/031809.pdf)


Now governments are the problems
Now … governments are the problems financial investor interest

Maastricht Treaty: - Budget deficit < 3% of GDP

- Debt/GDP ratio < 60%


Bagian ii perekonomian indonesia

Bagian financial investor interest IIPerekonomian Indonesia


Economic temperature cooler
Economic temperature financial investor interestcooler ..

Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, %

Target BI: 5% + 1%

18.4

14.6

percent

5.0

4.6

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: BPS.


Inflation remains high in the region
Inflation remains high in the region financial investor interest

August inflation, y.o.y

Source: World Bnak, September 2009


Bi rate bertahan di 6 5 persen
BI Rate financial investor interestbertahan di 6.5 persen

Sampai akhir tahun berpotensi menuju 7%

Source: Bank Indonesia.


Money market rates vs bi rate
Money market rates vs. BI rate financial investor interest


Anomali
Anomali financial investor interest ….


Level of credits to gdp 2009
Level financial investor interestof credits to GDP, 2009


Perbandingan sektor keuangan di asia pasifik
Perbandingan financial investor interestsektorkeuangandi Asia-pasifik


Belanja pemerintah masih seret
Belanja pemerintah masih seret financial investor interest

Dana yang ditarik pemerintah (pajak, SUN, ORI, Sukuk) parkir dalam rekening pemerintah di BI. Belanja APBN yang tersendat (a.l. karena eskalasi biaya proyek) juga berdampak negatif terhadap likuiditas.

Source: Diolah oleh Danareksa Research Institute.


Heart beat has been appreciating
Heart beat has been financial investor interestappreciating ...

(Rupiah per US$)

Source: Bank Indonesia


Foreign reserves increased more than 7 bil
Foreign reserves financial investor interestincreasedmore than $7bil.

(US$ million)

Source: Bank Indonesia.


Foreign ownership in bonds and sbis
Foreign ownership in bonds and SBIs financial investor interest

Source: Bank Indonesia and MoF.


Balance of payments us million
Balance of payments financial investor interest (US$ million)

Source: Bank Indonesia.


Indonesia s post crisis journey
Indonesia’s post-crisis journey financial investor interest

Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %

6.6

6.4

5.7

5.4

4.2

Gus Dur:

“Erratic/shaky”

Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration

Crisis peak

SBY: Throws away

Momentum, and then made correction

Pertumbuhan semester II sekitar 6.5%, sehingga rata-rata tahun ini sekitar 6.3%

Source: BPS.


Low quality sectoral growth rate 2000 base year year on year growth rate
Low quality — financial investor interestSectoral growth rate(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %)

Source: BPS.


Low quality growth 2000 200 9
Low quality financial investor interestgrowth, 2000-2009*(%)

Non-tradable

GDP

Tradable

Source: BPS.


Gdp growth by expenditure y o y
GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %) financial investor interest

* First quarter

Source: BPS..


Foreign merchandise trade
Foreign merchandise trade financial investor interest

Ekspor total maupun nonmigas mulai naik sejak Juni 2009 (m-to-m)

Billion US$

Growth (yoy)

Description

* January-May

Source: BPS.


Foreign merchandise trade monthly
Foreign merchandise trade: monthly financial investor interest


Composition of imports jan may 2010
Composition of imports (%, Jan-May 2010) financial investor interest


Trade balance indonesia china non oil gas
Trade balance Indonesia-China (non-oil & gas) financial investor interest

US$ million

*January-April

Sources: BPS


Indonesia foreign visitors arrivals
Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals financial investor interest

Visitors:

2008 = 6,234,497

2009 = 6,323,730

2010 (Jan-May) = 2,767,122

Growth:

Dec 2009 (m-t-m) = 17.63%

Jan-Dec 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.43%

Jan-May 2010 (y-o-y) = 14.6%

2008

2009

2010

Sources:BPS


Indeks tendensi konsumen
Indeks tendensi konsumen financial investor interest

Source: BPS.


Indeks tendensi bisnis
Indeks tendensi bisnis financial investor interest

Source: BPS.


Bagian iii peluang dan tantangan pemerintahan baru

Bagian financial investor interest IIIPeluangdanTantanganPemerintahanBaru


Red shirts make bloody protest
Red shirts make bloody protest financial investor interest

MARCH 2010: Supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra hold canisters with human blood before pouring it outside the Government house in Bangkok.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/3461303/Thai-protesters-pour-blood


Protestors burn churches in malaysia
Protestors burn churches in Malaysia financial investor interest

January

2010

In God's name?

A combustible mixture of race, religion and politics http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15271154


Menuju keseimbangan politik baru
Menuju keseimbangan politik baru? financial investor interest

  • Perubahan dalam koalisi yang disertai dengan perombakan kabinet.

  • “Disiplin” koalisi: sehingga akan lebih lugas antara partai-partai koalisi dan partai-partai oposisi.

  • Pengungkapan borok-borok masa lalu: positif untuk pembersihan?


Faktor faktor pengerem
Faktor-faktor pengerem financial investor interest

  • Para ketua umum partai punya agenda tersendiri untuk hadapi 2014.

  • Tarik-menarik di posisi-posisi strategis, termasuk di BUMN.

  • Kekompakan kabinet terganggu.

  • Kompromi-kompromi politik

  • Agenda populisme mengedepan.

  • Agak sulit mengharapkan perubahan drastik.


Bagian iv prospek 2010 14

Bagian financial investor interest IVProspek 2010-14


Projections of gdp by several agencies
Projections of GDP by several agencies financial investor interest


Projections of gdp by expenditure
Projections of GDP by expenditure financial investor interest

* Actual

** Projection

Sources: BPS and LP3E Kadin Indonesia.


Projections of gdp by sector
Projections of GDP by sector financial investor interest

*Projection

Sources: BPS and LP3E Kadin Indonesia.


Indonesia selected economic indicators
Indonesia: selected economic indicators financial investor interest


Terima kasih

Terima Kasih financial investor interest

Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com

Blog: http://kompasiana.com/faisalbasri