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AMAD Strategic Planning (2011-2015). S.T. Rao Director, NERL/AMAD U.S. EPA 9 th Annual CMAS Conference Chapel Hill, NC October 11, 2010. Objectives of AMAD’s Strategic Plan. Guides AMAD’s research for 2011-2015

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amad strategic planning 2011 2015

AMAD Strategic Planning (2011-2015)

S.T. Rao

Director, NERL/AMAD


9th Annual CMAS Conference

Chapel Hill, NC

October 11, 2010

objectives of amad s strategic plan
Objectives of AMAD’s Strategic Plan
  • Guides AMAD’s research for 2011-2015
  • Provides a framework for annual task/project planning for CMAQ and other air quality modeling activities
  • Responds to CMAS feedback and Division peer reviews to be more transparent and open regarding our research plans
research drivers
Research Drivers
  • EPA strategic goals and priorities
    • Climate change and air quality
    • Water quality
    • Healthy communities
    • Chemical risk
    • Environmental law enforcement
  • Office of Research and Development priorities
    • Support for Program/Regional offices
    • Implementing Integrated Transdisciplinary Research (ITR) in ORD
      • Air/Climate/Energy
      • Sustainable Communities
      • Sustainable Waters
      • Safe Products for a Sustainable World
    • Innovation toward sustainability
    • Effective communications
research drivers cont
Research Drivers (cont.)
  • Peer reviewers recommended the following:
    • Maintain Division’s core research while addressing agency’s near-term priorities
    • Build collaborations with other agencies for areas where in-house expertise is inadequate (e.g., on climate change-air quality work)
    • Integrate air quality and human exposure modeling for health studies
    • Integrate meteorological and hydrological modeling for ecosystem exposures
research prioritization criteria
Research Prioritization Criteria
  • Project/Program Level Criteria
    • Is an important issue to EPA (Problem of Broad National Significance)
    • Leverages AMAD’s expertise
    • Advances exposure science
    • Advances the science in CMAQ (i.e., reduces modeling uncertainty)
    • Advances integrated transdisciplinary research on EPA priorities in four program areas
    • Provides a sound scientific basis for Agency policies
research prioritization criteria cont
Research Prioritization Criteria (cont.)
  • AMAD’s Model Development and Evaluation Task Criteria
    • Model/process improvements reduceuncertainty in model-sensitive parameters of significance to decision makers
    • Model/process improvements correct errors/biases or reduce uncertainties based on results of model evaluations, in processes/parameters of significance to decision makers
    • Model/process improvements to maintain models at state-of-science
    • Advances the science through external collaborations in model development/evaluation
    • Provides significant efficiencies in model utility for community of users
    • Can accomplish in a timely and affordable manner
amad s long term vision
AMAD’s Long-Term Vision

Development of an integrated modeling system that is capable of simulating global-to-continental-to-regional-to-local scale phenomena of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere on relevant temporal scales of interest to exposure assessments

Design of core model components linked on an application-specific basis to answer science and policy questions related to human and ecosystem exposure to environmental stressors

Objective assessment and communication of uncertainties in modeling results

components of amad s strategic plan
Components of AMAD’s Strategic Plan
  • Core research on Model Development and Evaluation, which includes a continued focus on CMAQ
  • Emerging research areas
    • Integrating air quality and ecosystem health
    • Integrating air quality and human health
    • Integrating air quality and climate change
core research area model development and evaluation
Core Research Area – Model Development and Evaluation
  • Improve predictive accuracy of CMAQ
    • Use model performance evaluations (operational, dynamic, diagnostic, probabilistic) to identify highest-priority model errors impacting current and emerging applications
  • Ensure credibility of CMAQ for policy decisions
    • Communicate evaluation results to the scientific and decision-making community
  • Maintain utility of CMAQ
    • Provide efficiency upgrades, numerical stability, modularity/user friendliness, backward compatibility, tool distribution (e.g., AMET), user outreach through CMAS
  • Pursue next generation air quality modeling system
    • Explore transdisciplinary applications
    • Develop probabilistic model output

Impacts on Human Health

Extreme Weather

Climate Change-Air quality Interactions

(heat waves, forest fires, floods, droughts)

Air quality, exposure modeling

Impacts on Ecosystems

Climate Model Downscaling (clouds, aerosols, precip)

Hydrological modeling, precip prediction, atmos. deposition

Integrated Atmospheric Modeling Systems

> Meteorology, air quality modeling

> Data analysis

> CMAQ, AERMOD, other models

Projected future air quality-climate change effects

Weather, climate, air quality observations

Projected air quality conditions

Regulatory Policies


Evaluation of Regulations

AMAD’s Integrated Inter-disciplinary Research

strategic plan on amad website
Strategic Plan on AMAD Website
  • AMAD Strategic Research Plan (2011-2015)
  • Appendices: AMAD White Papers
    • Integrate Air Quality Modeling and Ecosystem Exposure Applications
    • Integrate Air Quality Modeling and Human Exposure Applications
    • Integrate Air Quality Modeling and Global Climate Change
  • Website:
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