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FUTUREVOLC Partner UNIVBRIS Jeremy Phillips, Mark Woodhouse, Andrew Hogg to develop and provide physics-based theoretical models of plume dynamics and tephra dispersion to help understand the new observations/monitoring data and apply the results operationally.

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FUTUREVOLC Partner UNIVBRIS

Jeremy Phillips, Mark Woodhouse, Andrew Hogg

to develop and provide physics-based theoretical models of plume dynamics and tephra dispersion to help understand the new observations/monitoring data and apply the results operationally

steady plume model
Steady plume model

1. Comparison with webcam

2. Comparison with lightning

5 minute period – 60 images

data courtesy of Sonja Behnke (Uni. South Florida)

3. Web-tool (www.plumerise.bris.ac.uk)

unsteady plume models

Steady models not appropriate for eruptions with time varying source conditions.

Unsteady plume models

Our analysis of a recent unsteady plume model (Scase & Hewitt 2012) shows an underlying pathology in the mathematical description.

Ongoing work is addressing this issue. The model will then be extended to volcanic plumes in a wind field in an attempt to describe unsteadiness in the source.

Buoyancy-driven intrusions

Wind & buoyancy are important for long-range tephra dispersal.

Buoyancy forces are not usually considered in dispersion models.

We’re developing a shallow-layer model of buoyancy-driven intrusions in a wind field.

Model by Chris Johnson (Uni. Bristol)

Ongoing work to compare with observations and develop operational tools.