SimTrans & Simtrans-Co2

1. Simtrans & Simtrans-Co2A freight transportation simulation modelAn emission permit policy analysis tool

2. SimTrans & Simtrans-Co2 • To model • To apply • To convince

3. To model • Simtrans (developed in 1999-2000) • An attempt to analyze the dynamics of the freight transportation market in France (Road, Rail, Inland waterways) • Funded as a Research Program

4. To apply • SimTrans-Co2 (2001-2002) • Explore the consequences of the Kyoto protocol and the implementation of an emission credit trade system • Commissioned by ADEME (National Environmental Agency)

5. To convince • Use of a posteriori causal loop diagrams for long term analyses

6. To model • Simtrans is focused on land transportation and modal split • 3 sectors • Road • Rail • Inland Waterways

7. To model • A Modal supply is a combination of • Means (Capacity) • Productivity • Quality

8. To model • Means (Capacity) • Productivity • Quality

9. To model • Modal split as a result of competition between different attractiveness • Attractiveness as a result of means, productivity and quality levels

10. To model Demand menu Agricultural products Food Chemicals & Fertilizers Metallurgical products Construction materials Energy components Global demand Other products General menu

11. To apply Simtrans + an analysis of the effect of the Kyoto protocol

12. To apply • The Kyoto protocol aims at reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases responsible for global warming • In EU, the transportation sectoris to blame for 28% of emissions of CO2 • CO2 emissions from transportation are expected to increase by around 50% by 2010

13. Source : GRID-Arendal in co-operation with the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the 7th Conference of the Parties (COP-7) to the Convention, held in Marrakesh, Morocco 29th October to 9th November 2001.

14. To apply • SimTrans-Co2 explores a C02 emission reduction trade system for trucks (inside the EU “Bubble”)

15. Productivity Capacity + Fuel consumption + + Investment Unit fuel consumption + + - Co2 emitted - - Fuel unit cost Negociable emission permits Emission regulations and norms + + + + + Warming effect policy + Taxation To apply Simplified causal diagram of Co2 and Emission Permit a

16. To apply Emission trading has no impact Co2 Emission (ton) 40 000 000 1 1. No action 2. Emission credit 30 000 000 2 3. Gobal policy package 3 20 000 000 1998 2003 2009 2014 2020

17. Other supply sources + + Transport Sector Growth - + - + Supply Supply/Demand ratio + Demand + + + - Average unit price + Rapidity + Freight km offered - + + + + Veh-Km - Max speed Desired unit margin Capacity - Productivity + - + + + + + Average unit load CO2 Congestion + + - + - Unit margin + + Fuel consumption - + Investment + Emission Regulations and norms Infrastructures Warming Effect policy + Unit consumption Total authorized weight - + - - - + Average unit cost Fuel unit cost + Negociable Emission Permits + + + + + Taxation Labor unit cost To convince Feedback loop analysis

18. Other supply sources + + Transport Sector Growth - - - + + Supply Supply/Demand ratio + Demand + + + - Average unit price + Rapidity + Freight km offered - + + + + Veh-Km - Max speed Desired unit margin Capacity - Productivity + - + + + + + Average unit load CO2 Congestion + + - + - Unit margin + + Fuel consumption - + Investment + Emission Regulations and norms Infrastructures Warming Effect policy + Unit consumption Total authorized weight - + - - - + Average unit cost Fuel unit cost + Negociable Emission Permits + + + + + Taxation Labor unit cost To convince Feedback loop analysis

19. Other supply sources + + Transport Sector Growth - + - + Supply + Supply/Demand ratio + Demand + + + - Average unit price + Rapidity + Freight km offered - + + + + Veh-Km - Max speed - Desired unit margin Capacity - Productivity + + + + + + Average unit load CO2 Congestion + + - + - Unit margin + Fuel consumption + - + Investment + Emission Regulations and norms Infrastructures Warming Effect policy + Unit consumption Total authorized weight - + - - - + Average unit cost Fuel unit cost + Negociable Emission Permits + + + + + Taxation Labor unit cost To convince Feedback loop analysis

20. Other supply sources + + Transport Sector Growth - + - + Supply + Supply/Demand ratio + + Demand + - + Average unit price + Rapidity + Freight km offered - + + + + Veh-Km - Max speed - Desired unit margin Capacity - Productivity + + + + + + Average unit load CO2 Congestion + + - + - Unit margin + + Fuel consumption - + Investment + Emission Regulations and norms Infrastructures Warming Effect policy + Unit consumption Total authorized weight - + - - - + Average unit cost Fuel unit cost + Negociable Emission Permits + + + + + Taxation Labor unit cost To convince Feedback loop analysis

21. Other supply sources + + Transport Sector Growth - - + - + Supply Supply/Demand ratio + + Demand + - + Average unit price + Rapidity + Freight km offered - + + + + Veh-Km - Max speed - Desired unit margin Capacity - Productivity + + + + + + Average unit load CO2 Congestion + + - + - Unit margin + + Fuel consumption - + Investment + Emission Regulations and norms Infrastructures Warming Effect policy + Unit consumption Total authorized weight - + - - + - Average unit cost Fuel unit cost + Negociable Emission Permits + + + + + Taxation Labor unit cost To convince Feedback loop analysis