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The Trade Indicators Project (TIP)

The Trade Indicators Project (TIP). An OECD horizontal and international project for creating a web-based, interactive research tool . The basic philosophy. Globalisation analysis requires cross-disciplinary thinking and approaches A wealth of information needs to be Sighted Sorted

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The Trade Indicators Project (TIP)

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  1. The Trade Indicators Project (TIP) An OECD horizontal and international project for creating a web-based, interactive research tool

  2. The basic philosophy • Globalisation analysis requires cross-disciplinary thinking and approaches • A wealth of information needs to be • Sighted • Sorted • Analysed • Validated • Bring separate database together in one application without duplication

  3. Progress made • There was strong agreement that there is growing demand for trade indicators and that the OECD should and could play a very useful role in this context. • A statistical project, such as the TIP, with a solid methodological underpinning, combining different data sources and which could help to further advance the research agenda was recognized as a major possible tool for the international research community. • OECDs richness of available international databases, ready to be used, was recognised as well as its competence and expertise in methodological questions • There was agreement that OECDs Roundtable approach should be continued and regularly reported to the Trade Experts meetings and other interested bodies. • There was a clear understanding that TIP would have to be embedded in the OECD.STAT environment. This means 2005 at the earliest from a data storage point of view. • The first Web-based pilot version has been realised and is in place at the time of writing (September 2005).

  4. Progress made • As reported to the 4ht and 5th ITS meeting: • An inventory of available databases at OECD which could be used for the purposes of the TIP was drawn up by STD • A first tentative selection of possible indicators was drawn up by OECD • 3 Sources: an indicator “Taxonomy” (prepared by L. Iapadre, ICE) was integrated by OECD into the Roundtable conclusions and into the work done for the HEGI.

  5. Achievements during the past 12 months: • A methodological standard framework (see next slide) was developed • Work for the OECD HEGI (“Aspects of trade globalisation Chapter”) served also as input into TIP • Thorough research was carried out compiling all eligible OECD data sources and data availability • Validation of data, integration into a Report Builder • Creation of an Interactive, Web-based query tool

  6. How does this look like at present?

  7. OECD OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES TIP: Standard methodological framework ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT & 12 - 14 (a.m.) September 2005 Beginning at 10.00 a.m. on the first day 13 (p.m.) – 15 September 2005 Beginning at 2:30 p.m. on the first day STATISTICS DIRECTORATE – INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 1

  8. Trade indicator groups • Trade balance and coverage ratio • Trade openness • Trade performance indicators • Geographic concentration indicators • Specialisation • Foreign direct investment indicators • Foreign controlled affiliates indicators • Technology based indicators • Trade policy indicators (WTO) • Price Indicators • Trade intensity and specialisation indicators

  9. 1. Trade balance and coverage ratio • Trade balance value (X-M) • Normalised trade balance ( [X-M] / [X+M] ) • Coverage ratio (X/M) 2. Trade openness • Trade-to-GDP-ratio ( [X+M] / GDP ) • Export propensity ( X / GDP ) • Import penetration ration ( M / [GDP-X+M] ) • Trade per capita ([X+M] / POP ) • …

  10. 3. Trade performance indicators • Market shares ( xc / Xtotal ) • Export performance (Δxc –Σα* ΔMtotal ) • … 4. Geographic concentration indicators • Herfindahl index of geographical concentrationGeographical distribution of export market shares of goods • Geographical distribution of import penetration of goods • Services trading partners • ….

  11. Database Database Database Database Database SNA/ANA ITCS ALFS TIS … OECD.stat flashmedia graphs Development of a TIP web tool Data extraction (SQL queries), data combination and calculation of the indicators, using XL Report Builder Creation of dot.stat format using a macro (Planned)

  12. Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser(planned)

  13. Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser(planned)

  14. Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser(planned)

  15. Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser(planned) Save in xls-Format And/or save query

  16. Interactive graphic presentation (planned) • The trade indicators will be probably made available as macromedia flash objects (*.swf) [embedded in *.html] • This will allow interactivity in the graphics • The graphs will be produced using “XCelsius” graphic software …examples…

  17. Examples of interactive graphs 1 • Trade balance vs. normalised TB • Trade per capita, trade per capita to propensity • Export performance • Export/import propensity • Trade balance to GDP • Market shares • Geographical origin of import penetration 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

  18. Directions for further research • Trade “plus” indicators, that is trade plus production (e.g. trade orientation measures), trade plus employment (e.g. correlation of trade and employment indicators, trade plus FDI/trade by foreign-affiliated firms (e.g. globalisation strategies). • More Trade in Services data is needed containing cross tabulations by products and partner countries. • Better integration of databases and Analytical Nomenclatures, e.g. by technology and factor intensity. • Links of customs sources with enterprise structural statistics, as discussed at the 6th ITS meeting to allow building up micro data on enterprise-characteristics, performance and related trade. • Trade intensity and specialisation indicators.

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