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Fuel Cells An Emerging High-Technology Industry. Rodger McKain, PhD 4/22/2006. Energy Sets the Scene. Setting the Scene for Fuel Cells: Petroleum supply, consumption, and imports, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day). 13 million Bbls/d. US EIA 2005.

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slide3
Setting the Scene for Fuel Cells: Petroleum supply, consumption, and imports, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day)

13 million

Bbls/d

US EIA 2005

slide4
Setting the Scene for Fuel Cells: Petroleum supply, consumption, and imports, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day)

60%

71%

US EIA 2005

primary energy use by fuel 2003 2025 quadrillion btu
Primary energy use by fuel, 2003-2025 (quadrillion Btu)

1 quad = 170 million bbls

= 1 trillion SCF (nat gas)

= 45 million tons (coal)

slide6

Fuel Cells:

An Old Technology Provides New Solutions

first communication of fuel cell related phenomena
First Communication of Fuel Cell Related Phenomena

“I cannot but regard the experiment as an important one…”

William Grove to Michael Faraday

October 22, 1842

sofc fuel cell operation
SOFC Fuel Cell Operation

2 H+ + O2- H2O + 2 e-

External electrical

conducting circuit

2e-

H2

H2O + 2 e-

O2-

O2

2O2-

½ O 2 + 2 e-

H2 2 H+ + 2e-

Porous perovskite cathode

Porous nickel-cermet

anode

Solid Oxide Electrolyte –

ionic conducting

membrane

fuel cell operation

Increasing Temperature

Fuel Cell Operation

H2 + ½ O2 H2O

H2O

O + 2e_ O=

H2 + O=_ 2e_ H2O

(Ionic transport)

Source: U.S. Fuel Cell Council

attributes of fuel cells
Attributes of Fuel Cells

AFC PACFPEMMCFCSOFC

Electrolyte KOH Phosphoric Sulfonic Molten Y2O3-ZrO2

Acid Acid Carbonate Ceramic

Polymer Salt

Temperature 1000C 2000C 80 0C 6500C 800-10000C

Fuel H2 H2 H2 H2/CO H2/CO

Efficiency (H2 fuel) 60% 55% 60% 55% 55%

(NG fuel) -- 40% 35% 50% 50%

Pollution Low Low Low Low Low

Hydrocarbon No Difficult Difficult Yes Yes

Fuel Use

Start-Up Fast Moderate Fast Slow Slow

Zirconia

fuel cell power system

Useful heat

Heat

Management

Fuel cell Stack

Sub Assembly

Fuel

FuelProcessor

PowerConditioner

A.C. Power

Air

Controls

Fuel Cell Power System
fuel cell impact from hydrogen economy statements
Fuel Cell Impact (from Hydrogen Economy Statements)
  • Clean environment
  • Reduced Global Warming
  • Energy independence
  • National Infrastructure Security
  • Low cost, reliable electrical power
fuel cell system trends compared with other distributed generation technologies
Fuel Cell System Trends Compared with other Distributed Generation Technologies

70

Combined Cycle

60

Carbonate Fuel Cell

Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

50

PAFC

Aero Gas Turbines

40

Electrical Generation Efficiency %LHV

PEM Fuel Cell

30

Industrial Gas Turbine

20

IC Engines

Stirling Engine

10

Microturbines

0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

500,000

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Wholesale

Size in kW

hydrogen production
Hydrogen Production
  • Principle Sources of Hydrogen
    • Hydrocarbons (natural gas and crude oil)
    • Water
  • Conversion Technology
    • Steam Methane Reforming (commercial)
    • Water Electrolysis (commercial)
    • Methane Pyrolysis (small scale)
    • Water-Sulfur-Iodide Process (small scale)
hydrogen production dilemma
Hydrogen Production Dilemma
  • 13 million barrels crude oil per day used in transportation – equivalent to 1.46 billion pounds per day hydrogen
  • This would require doubling the total US power production (850 GWe to 1780 GWe) if hydrogen were produced by conventional electrolysis. (assume 1 MW per 1000 lbs and efficiency improvements)

OR

  • This would require 23 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year - approximately 110% of the 2002 total US consumption, nearly doubling the total natural gas requirement.
hydrogen production solutions
Hydrogen Production Solutions
  • Near Term (small volumes)
    • Conventional technology distributed to point of use
      • Fueling stations (hydrocarbon reforming or water electrolysis)
  • Long Term (large volumes)
    • High Temperature gas Cooled Nuclear Reactor – boost electrolysis efficiency from 20+% to 40+%. (Reduce power requirement by half)
    • FutureGen – Hydrogen and power from coal
    • Solar Cell Direct Electrolysis
slide19

Are Fuel Cell Powered Cars Really More Efficient?

40

100

Energy Units

IC Engine

40%

Power Train

37.5%

15

Conventional Car

60

20

Idling

5

Friction

- 60 Units

H2 production

20

40

Energy Units

Fuel Cell

50%

Direct Drive

75%

15

Fuel Cell Car

20

0

Idling

5

Friction

slide20

Technology Commercialization Conundrum

  • Public Expectations are high
    • But, Success Rates are less than 30%
    • And, Success generally takes longer and costs more
  • Fuel Cell system OEM’s will determine the future
    • Much more investment is required
    • Development phase is more costly than anticipated
    • Strategic development is likely to dominate
    • But, focus is on suppliers and entrepreneurs
  • Basis for a hard, clear-eyed review of the fuel cell opportunity
    • Role of OEM’s
    • Public expectations
    • Government and NPO involvement
when will fuel cells be available an ohio view
When Will Fuel Cells Be Available?(An Ohio View)

Source: Projections represent Taratec Corporation’s estimate of market activity”based on input from industry analysts and information provided in executive interviews.

today s technology cost comparison
Today’s Technology Cost Comparison

Watts Sector Application $/kW

0.1 – 1.0 Biomedical Autonomous power for 105

sensors and implants

1 – 100 Electronics Battery replacement 104

100 - 10,000 Communications Battery replacement 103 – 104

Cell tower stationary power

5,000 - Transportation Propulsion 101 – 102

100,000 Auxiliary Power Units

> 10,000 Stationary power Emergency backup 102 – 103

grid supplement

slide23

Market Projections

Portable Power leads the way

Military/Aerospace

Vehicle

Stationary

Auxiliary

Portable

public expectations
Public Expectations
  • Set by “soft industry” successes
    • Dominated by services sector and incremental changes to existing businesses
      • Low development costs
      • Investment usually for revenue growth
      • Less than 5 years for acceptable ROI
      • Satisfying unmet market needs (existing markets)
      • Returns through M&A’s or IPO’s
      • Not universally applicable
slide25

Years Since Commercial Introduction

Market Penetration

(Per Cent Households)

Time to Max.

TV – 30 yrs

Color TV – 10 yrs

Electricity – 75 yrs

Automobile – 80 yrs

Telephone – 90 yrs

Cell phone – 20 yrs

PC – 20 yrs

Internet – 15 yrs

fuel cell vs service sector commercialization
Fuel Cell vs. Service Sector Commercialization
  • Some Fuel Cells are here today
    • Battery replacement
    • Military
    • Space Shuttle
    • Back-up power

But, to impact domestic energy consumption:

  • FC’s require
    • 10-100X development funding $100-200 million per product (from now)

– 10X development time (20 yrs)

But, FC’s offer similar market opportunities ($20 billion) to service sector businesses

fuel cell commercialization
Fuel Cell Commercialization

Cost Comparison

Fuel Cells

Log [$]

Service Sector

Log [yrs]

slide28

Service Sector vs. Fuel Cell Commercialization

2000

Service

Fuel Cells

DCF ( million $)

0

10

20

Yrs from 2006

-200

  • Differentiators
  • Infrastructure
  • Capital intensity
  • Market Creation
  • Diversity
  • Competitive Alternatives
slide29

Fuel Cell Cost Pyramid

(DOE)

Cost Contribution

$/kW

Industrial Segments

Now

Future

Balance of Plant

Packaging,Air/Fuel Handling

46

6%

44

12%

Controls/Power Electronics

Inverter, DC Boost,Sensors, Actuators

128

19%

110

28%

27%

Hot Box

Reformer, Recuperator

Manifold, Filter, enclosure/insulation

184

109

28%

Stack

325

48%

118

30%

683

382

fuel cell business creation gap
Fuel Cell Business Creation Gap
  • This time around----20-year development cycle (profitable industry following silicon chip history)
  • Suppliers betting on system integrators
  • System integrators require large infusions of capital to advance to product stage…the bottleneck in the cycle...returns are still beyond the horizon.
  • Gap: Financing development for an uncertain market.
fc s early adopter chasm created by government development programs
FC’s Early Adopter Chasm (Created by Government Development Programs)
  • Early demand for components
  • OEM’s commercial development
  • lags demonstration gov programs
  • Transition to commercial prototypes
  • Renewed demand as OEM’s
  • book product sales

Revenue Chasm

DCF [$]

Years

how does a fuel cell business survive and thrive
How does a fuel cell business survive and thrive?
  • Military “bootstrap”
  • Federal agency funding
  • Private investors
  • Strategic partners/customers
  • Leveraging Resources
building an industry
Building an Industry

General Requirements

  • Source(s) of ideas
  • Availability of funds
  • Accessible Workforce
    • Education and Training Resources
  • Informed and supportive infrastructure
  • Competitive business environment
    • Regulations, Taxation, Financing etc.
critical role for building a fuel cell industry in ohio
Critical Role for Building a Fuel Cell Industry in Ohio
  • Educate Policymakers
  • Create realistic expectations
  • Facilitate information exchange
  • Inform the public
  • Engage all interests
  • Create opportunities
  • Focus on government-University-Industry Relationships
  • Maintain an independent perspective
  • Enable new and existing companies to access resources to pursue fuel cell business plans more aggressively in Ohio than anywhere else
slide42

Concept: Truck Auxiliary Power Units

Save 700 Million Gallons Diesel Fuel per Year

Long-haul trucks idle about 2,000 hours per year

Idling trucks consume 860 Millions gallons of fuel per year!

Fuel cells can reduce truck idling fuel consumption from 1 gal/hr to 0.2 gal/hr or by 688 million gallons.

concepts aircraft power systems
Benefits to commercial aircraft cabin power

50% fuel savings over conventional turbine APU

Reduced emissions (e.g., >20% NOx reduction)

Reduced noise (>10db reduction at gate)

Concepts: Aircraft Power Systems

Commercial Aircraft

Benefits to UAVs:

  • Emergency power – improved vehicle recovery
  • Payload power – significant increase in payload

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

Benefits to HALE UAVs:

  • Longer mission endurance
  • Higher payloads

NASA LEAP Project

(Low Emissions Alternative Power)

High-Altitude, Long Endurance UAV

challenges for widespread use of fuel cells
Cost: (capital and operating) – further breakthroughs?

Operating Life: 4000 – 40,000 hours (automotive vs. stationary power)

Reliability

Investment – Catch 22?

Many demonstrations

Hydrogen Infrastructure (fuel transportation and storage)

Codes and Standards

Challenges for Widespread Use of Fuel Cells
fuel cell types

Ohio Interests

NASA Glenn

Parker Hannifin

GrafTech

CAPI

Battelle

Increasing Temperature

HydroGen

AMPOhio

NexTech

MetaMateria

SOFCo-EFS

TMI

CWRU-First Energy

NASA Glenn

Fuel Cell Types

Source: U.S. Fuel Cell Council

the ohio fuel cell enterprise
Ohio Fuel Cell Coalition – Ken Alfred

Wright Fuel Cell Group – John McGrath

NorTech – Dorothy Baunach

CWRU – Bob Savinell, Tom Zawodzinski

OSU – Giorgio Rizzoni

CSU – Orhan Talu

U of Toledo – Martin Abraham

U of Akron – Steven Chuang

Ohio University – Dave Bayless

NASA Glen – Serene Farmer

Wright Patterson AFRL – Tom Reitz

Battelle – Dave Salay

EMTEC – Frank Svet, Mike Martin

EWI – Frank Jacob

Stark State College of Technology – Dorey Diab

Hocking College

Catacel – Bill Whittenberger

MetaMateria Partners – Dick Schorr

NexTech Materials – Bill Dawson

SOFCo-EFS – Rodger McKain

TMI – Benson Lee

Parker-Hannifin

AEP

First Energy

Dana Corporation

Rockwell International

Keithley Instruments

Solarflo

Vanner

Governor Bob Taft

Ohio Department of Development – Pat Valente, Mike McKay

Stark County Development Board – Steve Paquette

Congressman Regula

The Ohio Fuel Cell Enterprise

Thank You!