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Adam Gelb , Director Public Safety Performance Project

Smarter Choices … … Safer Communities. Adam Gelb , Director Public Safety Performance Project. America’s Prison Population at an All Time High. National incarceration rate. 2.3 Million and Counting. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. 1990. 2000.

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Adam Gelb , Director Public Safety Performance Project

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  1. Smarter Choices … … Safer Communities Adam Gelb, Director Public Safety Performance Project

  2. America’s Prison Population at an All Time High National incarceration rate 2.3 Million and Counting 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

  3. 1 in 100adults now behind bars • 1 in 31adults undersome form of correctional control

  4. Who’s Behind Bars? Adult women 1 in 580 Adult white men 1in 106 Adult black men 1in 15 Young adult black men 1in 9

  5. The World’s Incarceration Leader 5% U.S. hasof the world’s population 23% andof the world’s prisoners www.pewcenteronthestates.com

  6. Policy Choices Drive Growth

  7. State Correctional Costs Have Exploded $51Billion Inflation Adjusted $23Billion Total Expenditures for StateCorrections $12Billion FY 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 (est.)

  8. Of Books and Bars +137% • Spending increases • between 1987 • and 2008 +24% Higher Education Corrections

  9. Prisons Dominate Spending CORRECTIONAL SPENDING CORRECTIONAL POPULATION Probation and Parole Prisons Prisons

  10. How It All Stacks Up One day in prison costs more than 23 days on probation • $78.95 • Average $3.42 Average Probation Agencies Prison Systems

  11. Return on Investment:A Tale of Two States Crime Rate Prison Population NY FL Florida New York 28.2% 29.2%

  12. States Can Have Less Crime at a Lower Cost

  13. Reagan Era: Dramatic Prison Reform Prisons: “from a peak of nearly 29,000 to a present low of 20,080” Parole: “for the first time in history, there are more convicted offenders on parole than there are in prison” • Recidivism rate: “dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade” Probation Subsidy Act (1965): $4,000 for each eligible offender supervised at local level in the community

  14. Reagan’s Second Inaugural Address (1971) “Our rehabilitation policies and improved parole system are attracting nationwide attention. Fewer parolees are being returned to prison than at any time in our history, and our prison population is lower than at any time since 1963.”

  15. Diverse States Pursuing Reinvestment Strategies • SOUTH CAROLINA • TEXAS • MICHIGAN • Alabama • Kentucky • ILLINOIS • COLORADO • KANSAS • Louisiana • Ohio • Arkansas • NEW HAMPSHIRE • WISCONSIN

  16. A Window of Opportunity • Advances in supervision technology • Advances in the science of behavior change • More accurate risk assessments • Increasing focus on cost-benefit analysis • Public support for prison alternatives

  17. National Poll and Focus Groups BIPARTISAN RESEARCH TEAM • 1,200 registered voters (March 2010) • Margin of error: +/- 2.83% • POS: McCain, R governors • BSG: Obama, unions City of Detroit FOCUS GROUPS Denver Suburb Greenville, SC Rural County NATIONAL SURVEY

  18. Poll Respondent Demographics 20% Victim or family member victim of a violent crime 48% Victim or family member victim of a nonviolent crime 17% Law enforcement households 43% Conservative 20% Liberal

  19. It does not matter whether a nonviolent offender is in prison for 21 or 24 or 27 months. What really matters is the system does a better job of making sure that when an offender does get out, he is less likely to commit another crime. Bottom Line… Let’s Reduce Crime “ “ STRONGLY AGREE TOTAL AGREE

  20. What percent of people currently in prison in the United States do you think could be released from prison who would not pose a threat to overall public safety? Underlying Attitudes “ “

  21. Reduce prison time for low-risk, non-violent offenders and re-invest some of the savings to create a stronger probation and parole system that holds offenders accountable for their crimes. Policy Solutions:Less Prison, More Accountability “ “ STRONGLY FAVOR TOTAL FAVOR

  22. Policy Solutions: Reinvestment Support Strong Across Party Lines Total Favor Strongly Favor

  23. Policy Solutions: Reinvestment Support Strong Across Regions Total Favor Strongly Favor

  24. Policy Solutions:Reward Performance “ Rewarding probation and parole agencies with some of the savings if they increase their success rates and send fewer repeat offenders back to prison. “

  25. Business Leaders Speak Out Kentucky Florida Illinois Michigan Oregon Dave Adkisson President & CEO,Kentucky Chamber of Commerce Chairman of the Board, American Chamber of Commerce Executives Barney T. Bishop III President and Chief Executive Officer, Associated Industries of Florida Frank H. Beal Executive Director, Chicago Metropolis 2020 Board Member, Business and Professional People for the Public Interest James R. Holcomb Vice President for Business Advocacy and AssociateGeneral Counsel, Michigan Chamberof Commerce Erin Hubert Vice President and General Manager, Entercom Radio Board Chair, Citizens Crime Commission

  26. “…Conservatives are known for being tough on crime, but we must also be tough on criminal justice spending…” • Newt Gingrich, American Solutions for Winning the Future • Grover Norquist, Americans for Tax Reform • Edwin Meese III, former U.S. Attorney General • William J. Bennett, former Education Secretary, “Drug Czar” • Asa Hutchinson, former U.S. Attorney, DEA Administrator • Pat Nolan, Justice Fellowship, former CA House Republican leader • David Keene, American Conservative Union • Richard Viguerie, ConservativeHQ.com • Chuck Colson, Prison Fellowship Ministries • Tony Perkins, Family Research Council • Ward Connerly, American Civil Rights Institute • John J. DiIulio, Jr., University of Pennsylvania

  27. A Window of Opportunity • Advances in supervision technology • Advances in the science of behavior change • More accurate risk assessments • Increasing focus on cost-benefit analysis • Public support for prison alternatives • Budget pressure

  28. Diverse States Pursuing Reinvestment Strategies • SOUTH CAROLINA • TEXAS • MICHIGAN • Alabama • Kentucky • ILLINOIS • COLORADO • KANSAS • Louisiana • Ohio • Arkansas • NEW HAMPSHIRE • WISCONSIN

  29. Common Policy Options • Sentencing • Reclassify offense levels • Expand eligibility for community corrections, drug courts • Release • Increase earned time for program completion • Base release decisions on risk assessment • Community Corrections • Use graduated sanctions for technical violations • Offer incentives for agencies, offenders 1 2 3

  30. A Case Study: TEXAS Beds needed Tough-on-crime state adds 100,000 beds in the 1980s and 90s 17,000 bedshortfallby 2012 Beds added $900 Million Estimated cost of adding additional beds needed for FY 2008/2009: 1980 2000 2010 1990

  31. A Case Study: TEXAS ANALYSIS • High recidivism rate • Revocation of technical violators • Low parole grant rate • Bipartisan legislative team expands use of residential, diversion and treatment centers • Compliance with parole grant law SOLUTIONS

  32. A Case Study: TEXAS 2007 Baseline Projection Actual

  33. A Case Study: TEXAS < $2B Estimated savings through FY 2012: %25 Parole recidivism rate: = 1973 • State crime rate: $120M Annual reinvestment in community corrections continued by ’09, ‘11 Legislatures

  34. Pew Report: The State of Recidivism 1. First-of-its-kind 50-state survey of recidivism (return to prison) rates 2. Data for offenders released in 1999, 2004 and followed for three years 3. States reported recidivism for new crimes and technical violation of supervision 4. Differences in definitions, data collection procedures warrant caution about interstate comparisons

  35. The State of Recidivism

  36. The State of Recidivism OREGON NEW CRIME 28% 6% 67% 1999 TECHNICAL VIOLATION 19% 3% 77% 2004 NO RETURN MICHIGAN 13% 25% 62% 1999 69% 15% 16% 2004 CALIFORNIA 14% 39% 47% 1999 2004 42% 40% 18%

  37. Protecting Public Safety and Cutting Costs One-year cost impact of a 10 percent reduction in recidivism IL AK TX NY OH MO NJ CT CA NC $233.1 $42.0 $33.6 $39.8 $24.3 $24.6 $23.0 $16.8 $14.4 $20.8 $472.5 million $14.4

  38. Strategies for Less Crime at Lower Cost 1. Define Success as Recidivism Reduction 2. Begin Preparation for Release at Time of Prison Admission 3. Optimize Use of Supervision Resources

  39. Risk of Arrest Highest in First Months after Prison 2.5% Drug 2.0% 1.5% Property Probability of Arrest 1.0% Violent 0.5% 0.0% 1 – 6 7 – 12 13 – 18 19 – 24 25 – 30 31 – 36 Months after Release from Prison 40% Between months 1 and 15 after release from prison, the chance of arrest drops by

  40. Strategies for Less Crime at Lower Cost 1. Define Success as Recidivism Reduction 2. Begin Preparation for Release at Time of Prison Admission 3. Optimize Use of Supervision Resources 4. Impose Swift and Certain Sanctions

  41. Successful Model: HOPE Probation Control Hope 47% 46% 23% 21% 15% 13% 9% 7%

  42. Strategies for Less Crime at Lower Cost 1. Define Success as Recidivism Reduction 2. Begin Preparation for Release at Time of Prison Admission 3. Optimize Use of Supervision Resources 4. Impose Swift and Certain Sanctions 5. Create Incentives for Offenders to Succeed

  43. Arizona Probation Outcomes2008-2010 Revocations to jail New felony convictions Revocations to prison 28% 31% 39% SOURCE: Arizona Administrative Office of the Courts, Adult Probation Services Division

  44. A Rare Moment in Time

  45. Smarter Choices … … Safer Communities

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