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iClicker Question. Bobcats or Grizzlies? Or Other? Bobcats Grizzlies Other. iClicker use donated by the Economic Research Center, Montana State University - Billings. iClicker Questions. What is your gender? Female Male. iClicker Question.

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iclicker question
iClicker Question

Bobcats or Grizzlies? Or Other?

  • Bobcats
  • Grizzlies
  • Other

iClicker use donated by the

Economic Research Center,

Montana State University - Billings

iclicker questions
iClicker Questions

What is your gender?

  • Female
  • Male
iclicker question1
iClicker Question

What is your role in Montana’s economy?

  • Business owner
  • Retired
  • Educator or student
  • Healthcare or non-profit
  • Other
what s happening on main street montana

What’s Happening onMain Street Montana

Main Street Montana Project Roundtable

Kalispell, Montana

July 8, 2013

montana and u s personal income growth
Montana and U.S. Personal Income Growth

5th Fastest in Last Year

  • 37th Highest Personal Income Per Capita

Euro Debt Crisis

Debt Ceiling Debate

Stock Market Crash

Fiscal Cliff and

Payroll Tax Cut Expiry

U.S.

Montana

12th Fastest Personal Income Growth since Depth of Recession

Source: Quarterly Personal Income, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce. 37th in 2012, excludes DC.

payroll employment nearly recovered indexed to peak employment
Payroll Employment Nearly Recovered(Indexed to Peak Employment)

Montana

U.S.

Flathead County

Source: Current Employment Statistics, April 2013 preliminary. Peak employment for Montana occurred in March 2008. U.S. indexed to Jan. 2008 peak. Great Falls to Montana peak in March 2008.

montana and u s unemployment rate
Montana and U.S. Unemployment Rate

Flathead

  • Montana has the 12th lowest unemployment rate in the U.S.

U.S.

Montana

Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics from MT DLI and the Current Population Survey from BLS. 12th lowest from April 2012.

iclicker question2
iClicker Question

How do you feel our economy is performing right now?

  • Montana is rocking it!
  • Doing pretty good, but room for improvement.
  • Ho hum. The economy isn’t good, but it’s not bad.
  • Some people are doing ok, but not the rest of us.
  • Statistics are lies. It’s rough out there.
responses to current economic performance question
Responses to CurrentEconomic Performance Question

Miles City

Bozeman

Billings

Great Falls

Missoula

regional and reservation unemployment 2012
Regional and Reservation Unemployment 2012

Source: Montana Dept. of Labor and Industry Reservation Unemployment Rates, 2012, and Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS and MTDLI.

montana average annual wages
Montana Average Annual Wages

Flathead 2012: $34,940

Montana 2012: $37,100

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS, and MT DLI

montana average annual wages1
Montana Average Annual Wages

INFLATIONWAGE GROWTH

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS, and MT DLI

montana average annual wages2
Montana Average Annual Wages

WAGE GROWTH

2nd

Fastest Private Wage Growth Last Year

Yet, 47thHighest

Average Annual Wage

41st Hourly

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS, and MT DLI. 4th and 2rd determined by 2012 QCEW, 41st by Occupational Employment Statistics, 2012.

take away points
Take Away Points
  • Montana’s economy is growing quickly,
      • Faster income growth,
      • Faster job growth,
      • Faster wage growth, and
      • Lower unemployment than the nation.
  • But we have a long way to go.
      • What are we doing right?
      • What do we need to work on?
  • Let’s focus on wages.
industry composition of u s and mt economies by gdp
Industry Composition of U.S. and MT Economies (by GDP)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product 2011.

iclicker question3
iClicker Question

Financial Services was Montana’s largest industry in terms of GDP in 2011.

What industry has the largest employment?

  • Financial Services
  • Trade
  • Government
  • Leisure Activities
  • Other
comparative industry employment
Comparative Industry Employment

Federal – 3%

State – 5%

Local – 11%

Private – 81%

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2012.

comparative industry private employment us mt and northwest mt
Comparative Industry Private Employment: US, MT, and Northwest MT

MT

US

Northwest

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2011 Private Employers only.

comparative industry private employment us mt and northwest mt1
Comparative Industry Private Employment: US, MT, and Northwest MT

MT

US

Northwest

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2011 Private Employers only.

iclicker question4
iClicker Question

What industry do you represent?

  • Wholesale or retail trade
  • Leisure Activities (hotel, food, entertainment)
  • Healthcare
  • Education
  • Other
montana personal income by industry since 1930
Montana Personal Income by Industry Since 1930

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income from 1930, SICs to NAICS conversion compiled by the Montana Department of Labor and Industry Research and Analysis Bureau.

industry mix compared to u s
Industry Mix Compared to U.S.
  • Roughly equal in good-producing industries, but less manufacturing.
  • Larger government, health care, and tourism.
  • Smaller financial and business services.
  • Industry mix doesn’t explain lower wages.
wages and productivity
Wages and Productivity

Wages

Labor Productivity

Source: Wages from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2011 annual. GSP and employment from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and average hours from the Current Employment Statistics. Calculated by MT DLI R&A.

montana s aging population
Montana’s Aging Population

Under 20 20 to 64 Over 65

Working-age population levels out after 2015.

Workers must become more productive to maintain economic growth.

Source: Census and Economic Information Center, MT Dept. of Commerce, April 2013

productivity defined
Productivity Defined

Productivity:

the “recipe” used to combine labor, capital (equipment), and inputs together to make output.

  • Measured by labor in states.
  • Does NOT mean workers are lazy.
  • Recently, it is a factor of technology.
  • Work smarter, not harder.
productivity defined1
Productivity Defined

High Productivity

Low Productivity

productivity and education
Productivity and Education

Source: Education attainment from 2009-2011 ACS, U.S. Census. GSP and employment from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and average hours from the Current Employment Statistics. Calculated by MT DLI R&A.

productivity and education1
Productivity and Education
  • Montana’s labor productivity is lower than expected given education levels.

Source: Education attainment from 2009-2011 ACS, U.S. Census. GSP and employment from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and average hours from the Current Employment Statistics. Calculated by MT DLI R&A.

factors influencing productivity1
Factors Influencing Productivity
  • Education
  • Experience in job
  • Job Matching
  • Industry Mix
  • Urban concentration
  • Use of technology
  • Spread of best practices and innovative methods
  • Business Size
use of technology measured in percent of workers in it fields
Use of Technology(measured in percent of workers in IT fields)

Source: Occupational Employment Statistics, 2012. Employment in 11-3021 and 15-0000 as percent of total employment.

factors influencing productivity2
Factors Influencing Productivity
  • Education
  • Experience in job
  • Job Matching
  • Industry Mix
  • Urban concentration
  • Use of technology
  • Spread of best practices and innovative methods
  • Business Size
montana has high r ates of entrepreneurialism
Montana has High Rates of Entrepreneurialism
  • #3 for Percent of Households owning a Business
  • #6 for Employer Startups
  • #15 for Net Employer Startups

Montana Ranks Among States

Source: Kaufman Foundation, 2012. Employer statistics from Business Employment Dynamics, 2010Q2 - 2012Q3, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Percent of Households from Current Population Survey, 2009-2012. Analysis by MT Dept of Labor and Industry

business startups by county 2007 2010 as percent of existing establishments
Business Startups by County 2007-2010(as percent of existing establishments)

Source: Research and Analysis Bureau, MT Dept of Labor and Industry

job performance of new firms started since 2007 by size
Job Performance of New Firms Started Since 2007 by Size

Source: Research and Analysis Bureau, MT Dept of Labor, using QCEW micro data.

montana has lots of small businesses but large business provide the jobs and wages
Montana has Lots of Small Businesses, but Large Business Provide the Jobs and Wages

ESTABLISHMENTS

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), 2012

montana has lots of small businesses but large business provide the jobs and wages1
Montana has Lots of Small Businesses, but Large Business Provide the Jobs and Wages

EMPLOYMENT

WAGES

ESTABLISHMENTS

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), 2012

large businesses provide higher pay and benefits
Large Businesses Provide Higher Pay and Benefits

Average Wage

Providing Insurance

Source: Quarterly Census and Employment and Wages and Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Center for Financing, Access and Cost Trends. 2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey-Insurance Component.

factors influencing productivity3
Factors Influencing Productivity
  • Education
  • Experience in job
  • Job Matching
  • Industry Mix
  • Urban concentration
  • Use of technology
  • Spread of best practices and innovative methods
  • Business Size
iclicker question5
iClicker Question

What aspect of economic development is most important?

  • Reducing transportation costs
  • Increasing capital availability
  • Improving our labor force
  • Improving innovation and technology diffusion
  • Other
full report available at www lmi mt gov

Full Report Available atwww.lmi.mt.gov

Barbara Wagner,

Chief Economist

Montana Department of Labor and Industry

406-444-5474

bwagner@mt.gov

iclicker questions1
iClicker Questions

What do you think presents the largest challenge to your region for economic development?

  • Infrastructure
  • Workforce Development
  • Access to Capital
  • Competitiveness of tax and regulatory environment
  • Other
iclicker question6
iClicker Question

What do you think presents the largest opportunity for economic development in your region?

  • Healthcare
  • Education
  • Quality of Life
  • Work Ethic
  • Other