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Paper by: Hilde Remøy Philip Koppels Hans de Jonge

This paper examines obsolescence and structural vacancy in Amsterdam's office buildings. Data from 2007 reveal factors affecting vacancy, including building quality, age, and location. Using logistic regression, the study analyzes variables such as year of construction and obsolescence factors to predict structural vacancy. The model considers building characteristics and location elements to understand the impact on vacancy rates. Results show that factors like facade quality significantly influence the risk of structural vacancy. The Beauty Model improves as more factors are included, highlighting the importance of obsolescence and year of construction in predicting vacancy trends.

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Paper by: Hilde Remøy Philip Koppels Hans de Jonge

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  1. The beauty or the beast? Obsolescence and structural vacancy in the case of Amsterdam- work in progress - Paper by: Hilde Remøy Philip Koppels Hans de Jonge

  2. Supply and absorption Total supply Total absorption Net absorption

  3. Leegstand in Amsterdam

  4. Office scan 200 office buildings in Amsterdam 105 buildings with structural vacancy 55 buildings with more than 30% structural vacancy Structural vacancy: The data were collected in 2007, office space that was vacant for 3 or more years was considered structurally vacant Logistic regression: Building and location characteristics relationship to structural vacancy

  5. Structural vacancy

  6. Variables Baum (1991,1997), recognises building quality, defined by obsolescence related factors (configuration, internal specification and external appearance) and physical deterioration, to be a better explanation of rental value and depreciation than simple age.

  7. Variables Year of construction Configuration Internal specification External appearance Additional location variables Plot and location quality Accessibility Amenities Functional mix

  8. Model Logistic regression, Dependent variable >=30% structural vacancy Model developed starting with basic factors, adding obsolescence factors and finally plot- and location factors

  9. Model Year of Construction The reference category is 1995-2009

  10. Model Obsolescence factors The reference category for quality is excellent, for material natural stone

  11. The reference category for for entrance spatiality is >15, for structural grid <=5.4, quality is excellent, for material natural stone

  12. Model Obsolescence and Year of Construction

  13. The reference category for Construction year is 1995-2009, for entrance spatiality >15, for quality excellent, for material natural stone

  14. Model Obsolescence, basic and location factors

  15. The reference category for Construction year is 1995-2009, for entrance spatiality >15, for quality excellent, for material natural stone

  16. Conclusion: Beauty Model improves for each block of factors added. The model including Year of construction AND obsolescence factors is a stable basic model: obsolescence and YoC stay important for the model also when location characteristics are added. Buildings with poor facade quality have a higher risk for structural vacancy!

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