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Homicide predictions

Homicide predictions. St. Louis 2013 Group A: Derek Clardy Maria Kattia Del Rio Tomita Seungyoon Kim Tamara Pokol. Approach. St. Louis 14 th Most Dangerous. Downtown West was ranked 14 th most dangerous A report based on F.B.I data back in 2010. St. Louis Homicide Historical Data.

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Homicide predictions

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  1. Homicide predictions St. Louis 2013 Group A: Derek ClardyMaria Kattia Del Rio TomitaSeungyoonKimTamara Pokol

  2. Approach

  3. St. Louis 14th Most Dangerous • Downtown West was ranked 14th most dangerous • A report based on F.B.I data back in 2010

  4. St. Louis Homicide Historical Data

  5. St. Louis Homicide by Police District

  6. Factors considered

  7. Factors considered

  8. Factors Available & Correlation with Murder

  9. Factors Selection • Correlation doesn`t mean causation! • Highly correlated factors • Build a reasonable model • Factors used to build regression model: • Robbery in St. Louis • Aggravated Assault • Low Income Class • Unemployed Civilians • Black or African American • Men 15-44 years 63 potential models!

  10. Best Fit Regression Model • Regression line: Number of murders=(-405.90559)-(0.08864*Robbery)+(0.00035*Low Income Class)+(0.00460*Black or African American) • Model: P=0.0327=<0.05 R square=0.98 Standard Error of Estimate=4.1

  11. 2013 ForecastBased on Homicide Statistics 1985-2012 *Mean Absolute Percentage Error

  12. 2013 Forecast – Holt`s Method • Accuracy: 16.91% mean absolute percentage error • 111 murders are forecasted for 2013

  13. 2013 ForecastNumber of Murders by Police District • 58% of all murders was committed in district 5, 6, and 7 • 65 out of 111 murders predicted to be in three districts

  14. Conclusion • Our regression model is better than the best forecasting technique • Useful model for predictions • The model can be extended: • Include more data: buy statistics (e.g. divorce by year), FBI historical data • Our model can be used to support decision-making in different industries: • Health Care • Security • Investment Opportunities • Community Services

  15. Questions?

  16. References • St Louis Police Department: http://www.slmpd.org/ • Missouri Census Data Center: http://mcdc1.missouri.edu/cgi-bin/acsprofiles/acsprofiles.py?period=2006&geoids=16000US2965000&subjects=Demographic&subjects=Economic&subjects=Social&subjects=Housing • Crime Reports: https://www.crimereports.com/map/index/?search=1200+Clark%20Avenue+St.%20Louis+MO&agencyzoomlevel= https://www.crimereports.com/map/index/?search=1200+Clark%20Avenue+St.%20Louis+MO&agencyzoomlevel= • KMOV News: http://www.kmov.com/news/local/St-Louis-ranks-14th-as-most-dangerous-neighborhood-89951832.html

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