Validation Methodology for Agent-Based Simulations Workshop Irregular Warfare Working Definition

1. Validation Methodology for Agent-Based Simulations WorkshopIrregular WarfareWorking Definition Mr. Steve Verna Northrop Grumman 01 May 2007

2. Purpose of This Briefing • To provide participants with a working definition of Irregular Warfare (IW) for potential use in future discussions in this workshop • To explain the rationale behind MCCDC’s focus on IW • To define relevant aspects of IW at the tactical, operational and strategic levels of warfare

3. Definitions of IW “A warfighting philosophy that seeks to achieve strategic objectives by avoiding an adversary's conventional military strength while eroding an adversary's power and will, primarily through the use of indirect, non-traditional aspects of warfare.” Irregular Warfare Workshop (20 Sep 2005)

4. Definitions of IW (Cont’d) “A violent struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations.” Terms of reference for upcoming MORS workshop on “Improving Cooperation Among Nations in Irregular Warfare Analysis,” Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (December 10-13 2007)

5. Why the Focus on IW? • Military Operations Research cannot remain locked in the Cold War • New adversaries are: • Non-Governmental, but organized nonetheless • Using new warfare techniques • “Hearts and minds” focus • May be striving to achieve non-military (e.g., economic, political, ideological) objectives and impacts (e.g., WTC attack) • Capturing terrain is irrelevant • MS&A needs to catch up • IW may best be modeled and analyzed through ABS

6. General Historical Perspective • Military modeling and analysis dates from 1940s • Anti-submarine/U-boat search and screening • Availability of digital computers (1960s) made wide-spread use of military simulation possible • Force-on-force, physics-based simulations • Confidence in predictive abilities of models required confidence in those models: VALIDATION • Emergence of unparalleled conventional military power of U.S. (1990s) led to rise in consideration of asymmetric threats • IW is one aspect of this

7. General Historical Perspective (Cont’d) • Modeling IW requires new tools • Force-on-force perspective not/less important • Psychological aspects of decision making rise in importance • Need to capture/simulate human behavior • New tools require new techniques • Including new validation techniques

8. Modeling Irregular Warfare • Many intangibles • Population sensitivity • Human factors • Non-linearity • Breakpoints • Co-evolution • Both sides adapt to the actions of the other in dynamic and unpredictable ways • Both sides operate with different objectives

9. IW Boundaries • Our definition of IW needs to encompass all levels of warfare • Tactical, operational, strategic • Boundaries between these levels are ‘soft’ • We are simplifying the issue by focusing on selected aspects of each level of warfare

10. Appropriate for Potential Consideration in This Workshop: Improvised explosive devices Suicide bombers Hostage taking Sabotage Urban warfare Inappropriate for Potential Consideration in This Workshop: Criminal activities Computer viruses Cyber attacks Drug trafficking Aspects of Tactical IW

11. Appropriate for Potential Consideration in This Workshop: Guerrilla warfare Psychological operations Terrorism Intelligence activities Inappropriate for Potential Consideration in This Workshop: Commodities trading manipulation Money laundering Aspects of Operational IW

12. Appropriate for Potential Consideration in This Workshop: Nation building Infrastructure restoration & improvement Information operations Subversion Population dynamics Inappropriate for Potential Consideration in This Workshop: Political campaigns Aspects of Strategic IW