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The ro le of biomass in the UK energy system T SEC-BIOSYS: A whole systems approach to bioenergy demand and supply www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk Ausilio Bauen Imperial College London. Biomass role in the UK energy futures The Royal Society, London: 28 th & 29 th July 2009. Introduction.

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slide1

The role of biomass in the UK energy system

TSEC-BIOSYS:

A whole systems approach to bioenergy demand and supply

www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk

Ausilio Bauen

Imperial College London

Biomass role in the UK energy futures

The Royal Society, London: 28th & 29th July 2009

introduction
Introduction

TSEC-Biosys has aimed to improve the understanding of:

The UK energy crop potential

Its spatial distribution

Its costs

The competitiveness of energy crops and other biomass in providing future energy services

Policymakers, industry and other stakeholders need to have visibility of these issues to develop strategies and positions

modelling optimal distribution of energy crops and their potential
Modelling optimal distribution of energy crops and their potential

Willow and Poplar favoured in the West, Miscanthus in the East

Average yield is about 12 odt/ha/yr

Average yield similar on ALCs 1 – 4, significantly reduced on ALC5

uk energy crop cost distribution
UK energy crop cost distribution

Significant potential between £45 and £65 /odt

uk energy crop supply cost curves
UK energy crop supply cost curves

Short term deployment on c. 650 kha  8 Modt

Average cost £50.1 – £55.6 /odt; 95th percentile cost £53.8 – £57.4 /odt

For a more more even distribution average cost increases 10% - 20%

the competitiveness of uk energy crops
The competitiveness of UK energy crops

UK energy crops likely to be competitive with imported solid biomass – import price estimated to range between £60 and £120 /odt (strongly dependent on international market conditions and bulk international transport costs)

the contribution of bioenergy to uk final energy demand
The contribution of bioenergy to UK final energy demand

Final energy share up to about 15% in 2050 and 8% in 2020

Strong ramp up to 2020; up to 1/3 of solid biomass could be UK energy crops

Bulk of final use in heat (38% in 2050 and 13% in 2020), important share of transport (8% in 2050 and 7% in 2020), small share of electricity (1% in 2050 and 2% in 2020)

Global sustainability scenario

the contribution of bioenergy to uk final energy demand1
The contribution of bioenergy to UK final energy demand

Solid biomass provides the bulk of the resource

Energy crops assumed to ramp up to a sustainably exploitable area of 1.5 Mha

UK resource contributes over 1/3

Range of technologies combustion, gasification, pyrolysis, AD, fermentation

Global sustainability scenario

scenarios vary with environmental and energy security considerations
Scenarios vary with environmental and energy security considerations

Significant contribution in all scenarios, but with reallocation between final end uses

3

2

1

4

conclusions
Conclusions

Energy crops planted on 1.5 Mha of land could provide about 2.6% of UK primary energy need in 2020 (based on static yields)

They could provide3/4 of the biomass resource needed to meet the UK’s RES heat and electricity biomass target

Agricultural and forestry residues and organic wastes could at least double the potential

Imports of solid biomass and liquid fuels can grow substantially

Overall a biomass can be a significant least cost solution to a low C energy future

RES proposes supply and demand side incentives to help ramp up

But ramp up and sustained deployment needs to be backed by:

an understanding of the constraints and risks

developments in agronomy, infrastructure, technologies and planning

encouraging best and sustainable use of resources

an informed industry

broader stakeholder buy in

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Thank you for your attention!

www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk