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The Hubbert Curve. Richard Harth, Megan Gershey, Rosalie Morgans, Nisarg Joshi and Joshua Olzinski. Overview. Introduction Support Date? Impacts Readiness for peak in production World Education?. Introduction.
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The Hubbert Curve Richard Harth, Megan Gershey, Rosalie Morgans, Nisarg Joshi and Joshua Olzinski
Overview • Introduction • Support • Date? • Impacts • Readiness for peak in production • World Education?
Introduction • In 1956, Marion King Hubbert developed a theory in which he titled “The Hubbert Curve” now referred to as “The Hubbert Peak Theory” predicting that petroleum supplies did not come in an endless supply • The Hubbert Curve is a bell shaped curve that portrays the exponential growth of petroleum production, a peak in production, and an eventual decline in production.
Support • The Hubbert Curve can be successfully applied to the production of petroleum in the United States as well as the production of petroleum on a national level.
The Hubbert Curve predicted that the oil production in the U.S. would peak between 1965-1970 at 10.2 million barrels of petroleum/day. • The curve also predicted a peak worldwide in 2010. • "The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognising that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion." • --Colin Campbell
Some are in disagreement with the Hubbert Curve in that it does not take into account any other sources of petroleum besides crude oil. • Although unconventional oil is not taken into account, the basic principle behind the Hubbert Curve that production will eventually peak and decline still stands.
Date of peak?? • The production of oil peaked in the U.S. in 1971 at 12 Gb/year. (very close to Hubbert’s prediction) • Currently, 33 out of 48 of the largest oil producing companies have already reached a peak. • Oil production in the mid-nineteenth century recovered 50 barrels of oil per barrel that was extracted. The number of barrels recovered today is 1-5 per barrel extracted. • Evidence only leads to one question, when oil production will peak worldwide?
Optimistic vs. Pessimistic Views • Optimistic: • Optimistic views held by researchers predict a peak in oil production around 2020, becoming critical closer to 2030. • Some believe that the world will never peak. • In October 2009, a report published by the UK Energy Resource Center, based on a review of over 500 studies confirmed that a peak in conventional oil will occur before 2030.
Pessimistic Views • Pessimistic view holders believe that a peak has already happened. • The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) predicted in their January 2008 newsletter that the peak in all oil (including non-conventional sources), would occur in 2010.
With the varying estimations of data, it is difficult to conclude when the world will peak or if it has happened already. • Most data, however, supports optimism, placing a peak date around 2020-2030. • This date varies from Hubbert’s predicted date due to the attempted regulation of OPEC and the use of alternative energies.
Impacts • U.S.? • Global?
U.S. • Fossil fuels have been the most important stimuli of economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution. • U.S. oil production has been on the decline from its peak in 1971. • The increase in technologies and new energy sources has slowed the decline. • Increasing populations are now stressing the oil production more than ever as oil increases in demand.
Potential Results • Products produced by oil will become scarce and expensive, resulting in a crisis in agriculture and industry. • Gas prices will shoot up, restricting everyday life. • Transportation will drastically be changed. • Postal services will stop. • Farm animals will starve because food cannot be delivered. • Schools and Hospitals may have to shutdown.
Global • Peaks in both discoveries of new oil(1965, 55 billion barrels/year) and in oil reserves(when oil production surpassed discoveries in 1979) present a pending problem for the dramatically increasing population. • In order to have a sustainable economy, the world population would have to be reduced by two thirds.
Potential Results • According to Dale Allen Pfeifer, a geologist and investigator of the Hubbert Peak Theory, “The oil peak may cause a global agricultural crisis with spiraling food prices without relief and massive starvation on a global level.” • The inflation of oil prices presents a chance for war between nations. • Economic reccession.
How Ready Are We? • In order to cope with this decline of oil, a sustainable source of energy has to be developed. • Unconventional oil sources still remain in abundance but are costly to extract. • The U.S. consumes 40% oil of its total energy. Only 7% is renewable energy.
The inflation of oil prices will give alternatives a window to work in that will slow oil consumption and but us time to find a viable source. • Ultimately, we are running out of time and without swift action, oil will reach depletion faster than expected
Knowledgability • Regarding peak oil, people are becoming more knowledgeable because of increases in gas prices. • The “Green Revolution” has made the peak known, from developing fuel efficient cars to using alternatives, steps are being made in the right direction. • The media pushes for knowledgiablity and tries to educate the public of potential outcomes if action is not taken. • Overall, people appear to be well educated.
