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ACH: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

ACH: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. Presented by: Jingshan Huang. Background: Problems with Intuitive Analysis. Human working memory limits the amount of information that can be simultaneously heeded

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ACH: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

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  1. ACH: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Presented by: Jingshan Huang

  2. Background: Problems with Intuitive Analysis Human working memory limits the amount of information that can be simultaneously heeded • Human perception is biased towards interpretation of information into existing schemas and existing expectations • Reasoning is subject to a variety of well-documented heuristics and biases • People typically fail to generate hypotheses • Fail to consider the diagnosticity of evidence • Fail to focus on disconfirmation of hypotheses

  3. So, here comes ACH! ACH is designed to ameliorate these problems with intuitive intelligence analysis that arise from human psychology.

  4. Big picture for ACH matrix

  5. 8 steps in ACH approach • Identify possible hypotheses • Make a list of significant evidence for/against • Prepare a Hypothesis versus Evidence matrix • Refine matrix. Delete evidence and arguments that have no diagnosticity

  6. 8 steps in ACH approach – cont. • Draw tentative conclusions about relative likelihoods. Try to disprove hypotheses • Analyze sensitivity to critical evidential items • Report conclusions • Identify milestones for future observations

  7. Summary • The ACH method offers benefits for systematically considering multiple hypotheses and avoiding confirmation bias. • It is easy to use and provides a basis for documenting the evidence used and the hypotheses considered • It supports a process for generating and comparing hypotheses under circumstances when accurate probabilistic scoring is not feasible

  8. One more comment • There is no guarantee that ACH or any other procedure will produce a correct answer • However, ACH DOES guarantee an appropriate process of analysis

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