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The Economics of : Evolution, Migration & Civilisation - Who will make it and who won’t?

The Economics of : Evolution, Migration & Civilisation - Who will make it and who won’t?. Dawie Roodt 25 September 2008. Presented by:. Evolution Timeline. Australopithecines Bipedalism, i.e. walk on 2 legs Opposing thumb, curved toes Lucy (Ethiopia), Mrs Pless. 5.5 million years ago.

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The Economics of : Evolution, Migration & Civilisation - Who will make it and who won’t?

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  1. The Economics of :Evolution, Migration & Civilisation-Who will make it and who won’t? Dawie Roodt 25 September 2008 Presented by:

  2. Evolution Timeline AustralopithecinesBipedalism, i.e. walk on 2 legsOpposing thumb, curved toesLucy (Ethiopia), Mrs Pless 5.5 million years ago

  3. Evolution Timeline ParanthropusBigfoot?Eat roots & vegetation Australopithecines 5.5 m yrs ago 2.7 m yrs ago

  4. Evolution Timeline Homo HabilisStone tools – ‘capital’Meat diet Australopithecines Paranthropus 5.5mya 2.7 mya 2.5 million yrs ago

  5. Evolution Timeline Homo ErectusFirst true hunter gathererMigrates out of Africa Use of FireUse of Stone Tools Australopithecines Homo Habilis Paranthropus 5.5mya 2.7 mya 2.5 mya 1.5 million yrs ago

  6. Evolution Timeline NeanderthalsExtinct…. Australopithecines Homo Habilis Paranthropus Homo Erectus 5.5mya 2.7 mya 2.5 mya 1.5 mya 230,000 yrs ago

  7. Evolution Timeline Homo Sapiens“Humans”Migrate across Asia & Europe Australopithecines Homo Habilis Neanderthals Paranthropus Homo Erectus 5.5mya 2.7 mya 2.5 mya 1.5 mya 230k ya 195,000 yrs ago

  8. Key Evolution Factors • Fire • Complex Speech • Walk Upright • Opposing Thumbs • Capital

  9. “Mamma Eve”?

  10. Mitochondria MOTHER

  11. Migration – Then.. 26k – 34k 15k 60k – 70k 40k – 50k 130k – 170k 70k 12k – 15k

  12. Social Evolution

  13. How did it happen?

  14. Hunter-Gatherers • Nomadic • Small Groups • No Specialisation • No ‘Surplus’ • Diet: High Protein Low Fat • Short Life expectancy

  15. The 1st Big Step Forward: Domestication of Animals

  16. Domestication of Animals • Domesticate animals • Bigger clans • Nomadic • Diet High Protein More Fat • Longer life expectancy • Small surplus

  17. The 2nd Big Step Forward: Domestication of Plants

  18. Vegetable Origins

  19. Civilisation: Mesopotamia • Domesticate Plants – especially Grain • Carbohydrates more energy free time ‘surplus’ • Non-Nomadic • Cities • Spesialisation • Autocratic Leadership • Civilisation = ‘Rules’

  20. Key Characteristics of Civilisation Monotheism • Organised Government • Complex Religion • Job Specialisation • Social Class • Writing & Record Keeping • Arts & Architecture • Public Works • Private Property Rights Polytheism Royalty Priests Traders Labourers

  21. Dawn of Democracy Establishment of Institutions…

  22. The Economic Role of Institutions Private Property Rights Independent Judiciary Freedom of Press Independence Central Bank Democratic Process

  23. Destruction of Institutions Democracy:New Leader Appointed Ecstatic! Change Economic Policy: More ‘democratic’ Take from the “Haves” (non-supporters) Give to the “Have-Nots”(supporters) IGNORES Private Property Rights Negative ImpactonInvestmentSavingsConfidence UNDERMINES Economy

  24. Destruction of Institutions Democracy:New Leader Appointed Ecstatic! Change Economic Policy: More ‘democratic’Take from the “Haves” (non-supporters) Give to the “Have-Nots”(supporters) Inflation: 200,000,000% ?? IGNORES Private Property Rights Negative ImpactonInvestmentSavingsConfidence UNDERMINES Economy CapitalDwindles…. Start to Print Money DESTROYS Independence Central Bank Media & Press: Report on Disapproval and Objections by Public Court & Legal System:Public tries to find Justice through legal system DESTROYS Independent Judiciary BANS Freedom of Press

  25. Destruction of Institutions Democracy:New Leader Appointed Ecstatic! Change Economic Policy: More ‘democratic’Take from the “Haves” (non-supporters) Give to the “Have-Nots”(supporters) DESTROYS Democratic Process Democracy: Mugabe-Style1 Man, 1 Vote, 1 Candidate! IGNORES Private Property Rights Voting System:Public tries to vote dictator out Negative ImpactonInvestmentSavingsConfidence UNDERMINES Economy CapitalDwindles…. Start to Print Money DESTROYS Independence Central Bank Media & Press: Report on Disapproval and Objections by Public Court & Legal System:Public tries to find Justice through legal system DESTROYS Independent Judiciary BANS Freedom of Press

  26. Destruction of Institutions Democracy:New Leader Appointed Ecstatic! Change Economic Policy: More ‘democratic’Take from the “Haves” (non-supporters) Give to the “Have-Nots”(supporters) DESTROYS Democratic Process IGNORES Private Property Rights Voting System:Public tries to vote dictator out Negative ImpactonInvestmentSavingsConfidence UNDERMINES Economy CapitalDwindles…. Start to Print Money DESTROYS Independence Central Bank Media & Press: Report on Disapproval and Objections by Public Court & Legal System:Public tries to find Justice through legal system DESTROYS Independent Judiciary BANS Freedom of Press

  27. Economic Evolution

  28. Shift in Economic Power Middle East China Arabia/Islam West - U.S. 10,000 BC – 500 AC 1000 BC – 1200 AC 600 BC – 1300 AC 1300 AC -

  29. Economic Position; 2007 Brazil, Russia, India Canada Spain Source: World Bank, 2007

  30. GDP Growth: China vs U.S. Source: International Monetary Fund, 2008

  31. When will China overtake the U.S.?? US$m, @ market prices Source: World Bank, 2008; Efficient Research

  32. Possible Economic Position; 2030 U.K. Source: Efficient Research

  33. Only Constant = Change

  34. Migration – Now..

  35. Changes in Racial Demography Changes in Religious Demography Implications of Migration

  36. Religion Adherents: Global

  37. Religion Demography: Global

  38. Four Largest Adherents Globally • Christianity 2.1bn • Islam 1.3bn • Irreligious/Atheist 1.1bn • Hinduism 900m 75.0% • Fastest Growing Religion • Influx of Muslim Immigrants in West increase Significance

  39. An Example: United Kingdom St Paul’s Cathedral, London The East London Mosque in Whitechapel

  40. “Londonistan”: Muslim Population

  41. Is the Future Grey?

  42. Global Population Growth 3.6bn 5.2bn 2.6bn - Development - Contraception - Education 6.7bn 7.7bn Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2008

  43. Life Expectancy Source: World Resources Institute, 2006

  44. Life Expectancy Source: CIA World Factbook, 2007

  45. Zooming in:South Africa

  46. Religion Demography Hindu, 1.2% Other, 2.2% Muslim, 1.5% Non-Affiliated, 15.1% Christian, 79.8% Source: Community Survey 2007, StatsSA

  47. Racial Demography Source: Community Survey 2007, StatsSA

  48. SA’s Population by Age Source: Community Survey 2007, StatsSA

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