Presentation of CSLI Fall 2009 Survey Findings + Annapolis Election Musings

1. Presentation of CSLIFall 2009 Survey Findings + Annapolis Election Musings Dan Nataf Ph.D. Director Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College 101 College Parkway Arnold, MD 21012-1895 http:www2.aacc.edu/csli ddnataf@aacc.edu 410.777.2733

2. County – Right/Wrong Direction: Spring ‘99 to Fall ‘09

3. Findings – Most Important Problem Fall 2003-Fall 2009

4. How would you rate economic conditions in… excellent, good, only fair or poor? The economy…rate economic conditions

5. The economy…compare AAC/USA excellent+good

6. The economy…does this apply?

7. Confidence in federal govt. 2008/2009

8. “Very” plus “somewhat confident” by party, 2009/08

9. When will the economy improve?

10. Perceptions of 2020

11. Perceptions of 2020: Health Care by Ideology and Party Health Care Quality/Access

12. Budget Issues: Are Cuts “about right,” “too big” or “too small”

13. Budget Issues: Support or Oppose various Proposals”

14. % saying “support” Budget Issues: Party and Ideology % saying “about right” O’Malley’s job balancing budget Good=13%; Okay=42%; Poor=38%

15. Problems facing federal government: What concerns you the most by party

16. National Issues: Presidential job approval Obama Bush

17. National Issues: % approving of president’s job by party

18. Annapolis Mayoral Election: A “change” election • Major issues • Leadership style and competency • Everything else Leadership style and competency 1. Retrospective voting punish incumbents a. Punish incumbents * Individuals associated with incumbent * Incumbent party • Presents a defensive challenge to all Democrats • Major concern over ‘city manager’ issue • Ties to Ellen Moyer • Ties to “Democratic party machine”

19. Annapolis Mayoral Election: A “change” election • Problems posed to Democratic party/Josh Cohen • *Confusing election process/divided Democratic electorate • Plurality winner - Zina Pierre – was against ‘city manager’ – withdrew due to background issues, managing $ - process alienates black Democratic electorate! • *Can Cohen win back black vote? • Josh Cohen and TrudiMcFall divide white vote; McFallendorses Republican candidate… * Can Cohen win back McFall vote? • City manager issue prominent divide between Cohen/McFall/Other Democratic council candidates *Cohen most associated with Moyer – ‘change’ election • without city manager – not good combo!

20. Annapolis Mayoral Election: A “change” election • Problems posed to Republican party/David Cordle • Candidate is 8 year veteran of council – could share blame for problems facing city – not ‘enough change.’ • Recent convert to city manager position – perceived as too opportunistic? • Faces 2 to 1 D/R disparity in registered voters • Must depend on ‘independent’ voters and defecting Dems to win. • Faced with Chris Fox – crypto-libertarian likely to take many more voters from Cordle than Cohen.

21. Annapolis Mayoral Election: A “change” election • Possible scenarios • Change momentum proves dominant – strong anti-incumbent feeling pushes Republican and independent voters to vote for Fox, black voters stay home, Fox beats Cordle and Cohen by a hair. • Change momentum proves strong but ‘with experience’Republican voters strongly line up behind Cordle, Fox loses badly due to inexperience; Cohen comes in second due to lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters • Change momentum overcome by party loyalty – Cohen rallies black Democrats, McFall Democrats reluctantly back Cohen, fiscally conservative /pro-business Republicans split between Cordle and Fox, independents split evenly

22. Facts from 2005 Total reg. voters: 23464 Votes cast: 7893 Turnout: 33.6% Moyer 3612,Renaut 2850Kelley 1404 Ward 1: Dem 800 Rep 565 +265Ward 2: Dem 652 Rep 696 +44Ward 3: Dem 487 Other 166 (Write in –Scott Bowling) +321 Ward 4: Dem 436 Rep 163 +273 Ward 5: Dem 266 Rep 554 +288 Ward 6: Dem 255 Unaffil 357 +102Ward 7: Dem 549 Rep471 +78Ward 8: Dem 976 Rep309 +667 Rep 2 Dem 1 Dem3 Dem 4 Dem 8 Dem 6 Rep 5 Dem 7 Rep 5