Briefing on the Regional Economy Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York March 12, 2003

1. Briefing on the Regional Economy Rae D. RosenSenior EconomistFederal Reserve Bank of New York March 12, 2003

2. Coincident Economic Indicators New York City New York State New Jersey Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.

3. NYS Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Seasonally Adjusted Claims Claims Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

4. NYC Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Seasonally Adjusted Claims Claims Source: New York State Department of Labor

5. Growth in Service Jobs% change from December 2001 - December 2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY Calculations.

6. Growth in Service JobsDecember 2001 - December 2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY Calculations.

7. Business and Consumer Services EmploymentPercent change from 12 months earlier Percent Percent United States New York State New York City Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.

8. Employment in the Securities Industry Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent Percent United States New York City New York State Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9. Health and Social Services EmploymentPercent change from 12 months earlier Percent Percent New York State United States New York City Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.

10. New York Recession Patterns Decline from Employment Peak to Trough Percent April 1989 - Mar. 1994 Jan. 2001 - Dec. 2002 Oct. 1981 - Feb. 1983 Nov. 1969 - Feb. 1972 Nov. 1973 - Jan. 1977 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.

11. New York City Recession Patterns Decline from Employment Peak to Trough Percent April 1989 - Sep. 1993 Dec. 2000 - Dec. 2002 July. 1969 - Mar. 1977 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.

12. Second District Unemployment Rates Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

13. Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans with Installments 90 Days Past Due Percent Percent New Jersey New York United States Connecticut Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

14. Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure Started During the Quarter Percent Percent New Jersey New York United States Connecticut Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

15. Office Vacancy RatesQuarterly Percent Percent NYC-Downtown Northern New Jersey United States-Metropolitan NYC-Metropolitan Source: Coldwell Banker.

16. Consumer Price IndexPercent change from 12 months earlier Percent Percent New York and Northeastern New Jersey United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

17. Consumer Price IndexPercent change from 12 months earlier Percent Percent United States - Services United States United States - Durable Goods Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

18. The Conference Board Index of Consumer Attitudes1985= 100 Index Index Consumer confidence Current situation Consumer expectations Sources: The Conference Board. Note: Shading denotes NBER recessions

19. New York State Tax Revenue Collections Year to Date Mil $ Mil $ Sales Tax Revenue Collections 2002 Sales Tax Revenue Collections 2001 Source: Office of the New York State Comptroller

20. New York City Tax Revenue Collections Year to Date Mil $ Mil $ Sales Tax Revenue Collections 2001 Sales Tax Revenue Collections 2002 Source: New York City Department of Finance

21. New York State Tax Revenue Collections Year to Date Mil $ Mil $ Income Tax Revenue Collections 2001 Income Tax Revenue Collections 2002 Source: Office of the New York State Comptroller

22. New York City Tax Revenue Collections Year to Date Mil $ Mil $ Income Tax Revenue Collections 2001 Income Tax Revenue Collections 2002 Source: New York City Department of Finance

23. Personal IncomePercent change from 4 quarters earlier Percent Percent United States New York Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.

24. Wages and SalariesPercent change from 4 quarters earlier Percent Percent New York United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.