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SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE. Presented by: Walter Booysen ICUE 2012 - Stellenbosch. INTRODUCTION. Energy saving projects are becoming more commonplace Use of official M&V teams Increased complexity, increased risk

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Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Presented by: Walter Booysen

ICUE 2012 - Stellenbosch


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance1

  • Energy saving projects are becoming more commonplace

  • Use of official M&V teams

  • Increased complexity, increased risk

  • ESCO requires simple methods to evaluate performance

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance2

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Baseline

Implementation

Assessment

Impact

Power

What would it have been?

Time

Project impact = Baseline – Actual profile


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance3

  • PRESENT METHODS

  • Regression

  • Econometric

  • Fuzzy logic

  • Neural networks

  • Support vector regression

  • Particle Swarm optimisation

  • BASELINE ADJUSTMENT MODLES:

  • CHANGES PROMPTING ADJUSTMENT:

  • Physical

  • Utilisation

  • Occupancy

  • Hours of operation

  • Volume heated/cooled

  • Equipment (Amount/Use)

  • Environmental conditions

  • Production

  • Maintenance principles

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Cost

Uncertainty


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance4

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Power (kW)

Temperature (Deg C)


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance5

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Before linear model (yB = mBx + cB)

After linear model (yA= mAx + cA)

Power

Independent variable (temperature, occupation, area etc.)


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance6

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Before linear model (yB = mBx + cB)

What it would have been

After linear model (yA= mAx + cA)

Specific Impact

Power

Actual

Independent variable (temperature, occupation, area etc.)


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance7

  • PRESENT METHODS – REGRESSION MODELS

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance8

  • Nature of Building and Industrial systems

  • Limited selection of variables available

  • Various buffers in system, unknown delays

  • Difference in methods used to achieve savings

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance9

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Flow (kg/s)

Baseline

Optimised 1

Time

Reduced wastage, improved equipment and system efficiency


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance10

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Flow (kg/s)

Baseline

Optimised 2

Time

Improved control matching user demand


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance11

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Before linear model (yB = mBx + cB)

What it would have been

After linear model (yA= mAx + cA)

Power (kW)

Total impact

Actual

Change in variable

Option 1: Impact known

Option 2: Impact unknown

Flow (kg/s)

Assume that driver behind air consumption remains constant


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance12

  • Use dependent variables for regression model

  • Identify period that will remain unaffected

  • Use data from this period only

  • Clean data to represent “Business as usual”

  • Develop regression model using data set

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance13

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Unaffected period

Power (kW)

Flow (kg/s)

Baseline

Time

Time

Power (kW)

Flow (kg)


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance14

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Power (kW)

Flow (kg/s)

Power

Time


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance15

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Power

Adjusted Baseline

Baseline

Time


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance16

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Power

AdjustedBaseline

Actual

Baseline

Time

Reduced wastage, improved equipment and system efficiency


Simplified methods to evaluate industrial dsm project performance17

SIMPLIFIED METHODS TO EVALUATE INDUSTRIAL DSM PROJECT PERFORMANCE

  • Proposed model utilises dependant variables

  • Variables are typically already part of control feedback

  • Regression model indicated what the power would have been for a specific portion of the day

  • Baseline can be adjusted to match the value

  • Adjusted baseline indicates what the power would have been

  • Project impact can be determined by comparing adjusted baseline and actual profile