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Aalborg University, September October 2005 PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I:. Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model. Henrik Lund Aalborg University Denmark. Content: Workshop aproach…!! Development aproach..!!.

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Introduction to the energyplan model

Aalborg University, September October 2005PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I:

Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model

Henrik Lund

Aalborg University

Denmark


Content workshop aproach development aproach
Content: Workshop aproach…!!Development aproach..!!

  • 1. (23 August): Introduction to studies made by the use of EnergyPLAN. Discussion of participants ideas of PhD projects and potential use of the model.

  • 2. (30 August): Details inside the model. How does it work? How are the modelling of specific components, units etc? Discussion of PhD-projects: Strengths and weakness of the model?

    • The period between 23 August and 5 September: Participants install the model and make familiar with the model and make som preliminary analyses.

  • 3. (6 September): Discussion of participants analyses. Results, problems, room for improvements of the model…!!! Etc..


Www plan aau dk lund
www.plan.aau.dk/~lund

  • Download EnergyPLAN

  • Download documentation

  • Links to journal articles (results)

  • Links to research reports (Danish)


Content
Content

1. The EnergyPLAN model

2. Data and Methodologies

3. Example: Technical Analysis

4. Example: Market Economical Analysis




The energyplan model
The EnergyPLAN Model

Energy System Analysis Model

- Excel~Visual Basic~Delphi Pascal

- Main focus: Compare different regulation systems ability to integrate and trade RES (Wind)

- Simplified modelling of energy system.



Energyplan model 6 0
EnergyPLAN Model 6.0

Input

Output

Distribution Data:

Demands

Fixed electricity

Flexible electricity

District Heating

Electricity

District H.

Wind

MarketPrices

  • Results:

  • (Annual, monthly and hour by hour values)

  • Heat productions

  • Electricity production

  • Electricity import export

  • Forced electricity surplus production

  • Fuel consumption

  • Payments from import/export

  • CO2 emissions

  • Share of RES

Solar

IndustrialCHP

PhotoVoltaic

RES

Wind and PV

Capacities (MW)

Distribution Factor

Solar Thermal and

CSHP (TWh/year)

  • Regulation strategy:

  • 1. Meeting heat demand

  • 2. Meeting both heat and electricity demand

  • Electricity Market Strategy:

  • Import/export optimisation

  • Critical surplus production:

  • reducing wind,

  • replacing CHP with boiler or heat pump

  • Electric heating and/or Bypass

Capacities & Efficiencies

CHP, Power plant,

Heat Pump, Boiler

Heat Storage

Regulation

Market prises

Multiplication factor

Addition factor

Depend factor

Marginal production

Cost (Import, export)

Stabilisation demands

Fuel

Types of fuel

CO2 emission factors

Fuel prices




Energy system
Energy System

Import

Export

Wind

Power

Photo

Voltaic

Electricity

Demand

Power

Plant

Transport

Flexible

CHPunit

CSHPunit

Heat

Pump

Fuel

Heat

Demand

Boiler

DH-boiler

Heat

Storage

Solar

Thermal


Energy system 6 2
Energy System 6.2

Water

Storage

Wind

Power

Import

Export

Photo

Voltaic

Wave

Energy

Pump

Turbine

Electricity

Demand

Power

Plant

Transport

Flexible

Electro-

lyser

Heat

Pump

CHPunit

CSHPunit

Fuel

Heat

Demand

Heat

Storage

Boiler

DH-boiler

Solar

Thermal


Desire project
DESIRE project

Will include:

  • Nuclear power..

  • Hydro Power…


Content1
Content

1. The EnergyPLAN model

2. Data and Methodologies

3. Example: Technical Analysis

4. Example: Market Economical Analysis


Methodology
Methodology

Inputs:

  • Reference energy system (Danish CHP)

  • Different share of different RES

    Results:

  • Rate of excess electricity production

  • Ability to decrease CO2 emission

  • Ability to exploit exchange on external electricity markets



Wind energy
Wind energy

Input:

  • Data from total productions of wind turbines in the TSO Eltra area (West Denmark).



Photo voltaic
Photo voltaic

  • Data from the Danish Sol300 project (Total 267 installations, app. 100 included in the data base

  • Additional “synthetic data” from Test Reference Year



Wave power
Wave Power

  • Calculated from measurements of Wave height and periods in the North Sea

  • 5 percent efficiency

  • Max installed capacity




Content2
Content

1. The EnergyPLAN model

2. Data and Methodologies

3. Example: Technical Analysis

4. Example: Market Economical Analysis




Reference r 2030
ReferenceÅr 2030



Electricity balance and grid stability
Electricity Balance and Grid Stability

Non Active Components

Active Components

Demand

Centralised CHP

and

Power Plants

RES

(Renewable

Energy Sources)

DG (Distributed

Generation)


System 1 activating dg chp units
System 1:Activating DG CHP-units

Non Active Components

Active Components

Centralised CHP

and

Power Plants

Demand

DG (Distributed

Generation)

RES

(Renewable

Energy Sources)


System 2 chp units and heat pumps
System 2: CHP-units and Heat Pumps

Non Active Components

Active Components

Centralised CHP

and

Power Plants

Demand

DG

(Distributed

Generation)

Heat

Pumps

RES

(Renewable

Energy Sources)


System 3 activating res via additional demand
System 3: Activating RES via additional demand

Non Active Components

Active Components

Centralised CHP

and

Power Plants

Demand

DG

(Distributed

Generation)

Heat

Pumps

RES

(Renewable

Energy Sources)

Wind

Power

Electricity

for

Transport



Introduction to the energyplan model

Danish Reference 2020

Excess

Electricity

8,4 TWh

Wind

Power

17,7 TWh

41,1 TWh

Electricity

Demand

41,1 TWh

31,8 TWh

CHP and

Power plants

Coal

26.5 TWh

Fuel

Total

200,3

TWh

92,3

TWh

Oil

70,9 TWh

39,2 TWh

District

Heating

Grid loss

25 %

31,9 TWh

Heat

Demand

62,9 TWh

31,0 TWh

Household &

Industry

39,9

TWh

Natural Gas

68,4 TWh

50,7

TWh

Transport

50,7 TWh

Biomass

34,5 TWh

17,4 TWh

Refinery

Etc.

17,4 TWh


Introduction to the energyplan model

Danish Alternative 20?0

Transport

(50,7 TWh)

equvalent

62,3 TWh

17,8 TWh

Wind

Power

37,0 TWh

Electricity

Demand

37,0 TWh

Photo

Voltaic

H2

Electrolyser

H2

14,7 TWh

CHP, HP and

Power plants

Solar thermal

2,1 TWh

District

Heating

Grid loss

25 %

53,5 TWh

42,8 TWh

Heat

Demand

56,8 TWh

Biomass

49,4 TWh

Fuel

Total

49,4

TWh

31,4

TWh

18,0 TWh

14,0 TWh

Household &

Industry


Content3
Content

1. The EnergyPLAN model

2. Data and Methodologies

3. Example: Technical Analysis

4. Example: Market Economical Analysis


Modelling of nordpool
Modelling of NordPool

- Standard system price hour by hour distribution (based on recent years)

- Construction of “Wet” “Dry” and “Normal” years (Hydro in Norway)

- Modelling of influence for DK trade and splitting in price areas due to bottle-neck in transmission

- Modelling of influence from Trade on the German Boarder.


Reference regulation system co2 price 100 dkk t
Reference regulation system(CO2 Price = 100 DKK/t)






Conclusions
Conclusions:

  • If wind production exceeds 5 TWh (equal to 20%) investments in CHP regulation and Heat Pumps are feasible.

  • Such investments at the same time makes wind power more feasible. For production costs of 220 DKK/MWh and CO2-prices of 100 DKK/t the feasibility of wind power raises from 6 TWh in the reference system to 11 TWh in the “Heat Pump” system.


Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity Analysis

  • Increase in Heat Pump Costs

  • Variations in CO2 payment

  • Change in Wind Power costs

  • Change in fuel costs

  • Change in CO2 influence on Nordpool

  • Change in Nordpool average price

  • Change in import/export to Germany

  • Change in Nordpool price variations



Introduction to the energyplan model1

Aalborg University, September October 2005PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I:

Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model

Henrik Lund

Aalborg University

Denmark